Analyst Intel
Photo
💀The names of the crew of the KC-135 refueling aircraft that crashed in western Iraq:
- Squadron Leader John Klinner, 33 years old
- Squadron Leader Ariana Savino, 31 years old
- Squadron Leader Ashley Brewitt, 34 years old
- Squadron Leader Seth Koval, 38 years old
- Squadron Leader Curtis Angst, 30 years old
- Squadron Leader Tyler Simmons
- Squadron Leader John Klinner, 33 years old
- Squadron Leader Ariana Savino, 31 years old
- Squadron Leader Ashley Brewitt, 34 years old
- Squadron Leader Seth Koval, 38 years old
- Squadron Leader Curtis Angst, 30 years old
- Squadron Leader Tyler Simmons
🔥13😁4😢2❤1💩1
Forwarded from Brian Berletic's New Atlas Channel
🇺🇸/IRAN - US Marines Expeditionary Unit (MEU) Deployed to Middle East
The US deployment of the Tripoli and its support ships provides the following capabilities:
1. Amphibious/helicopter/tilt-rotor landing operations;
2. Anti-shipping operations - both boarding ships and sinking them with anti-ship missiles;
3. F-35 multi-role warplanes;
4. Precision missile fire via HIMARS;
What would the US be looking to do with a primarily anti-shipping force?
1. Perhaps seize Kharg Island by holding the infrastructure itself - forcing Iran to either destroy its primary means of energy export or hope in vain to someday get it back from the US;
2. Interdict ships by boarding them or by sinking them ensuring Iran's selective passage of the Hormuz Strait becomes an entirely closed strait;
3. Additional F-35 warplanes needed to augment existing airpower in the region as maintenance walls are reached;
4. The use of HIMARS to augment current precision strikes into western Iran;
The US deployment of the Tripoli and its support ships provides the following capabilities:
1. Amphibious/helicopter/tilt-rotor landing operations;
2. Anti-shipping operations - both boarding ships and sinking them with anti-ship missiles;
3. F-35 multi-role warplanes;
4. Precision missile fire via HIMARS;
What would the US be looking to do with a primarily anti-shipping force?
1. Perhaps seize Kharg Island by holding the infrastructure itself - forcing Iran to either destroy its primary means of energy export or hope in vain to someday get it back from the US;
2. Interdict ships by boarding them or by sinking them ensuring Iran's selective passage of the Hormuz Strait becomes an entirely closed strait;
3. Additional F-35 warplanes needed to augment existing airpower in the region as maintenance walls are reached;
4. The use of HIMARS to augment current precision strikes into western Iran;
🖕3
The Wall Street Journal, citing sources:
• Trump ignored warnings from the Joint Chiefs of Staff before the attack that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz
• Trump acknowledged the possibility of Iran closing the strait but decided to proceed because he believed it would surrender before that
• Trump ignored warnings from the Joint Chiefs of Staff before the attack that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz
• Trump acknowledged the possibility of Iran closing the strait but decided to proceed because he believed it would surrender before that
🖕7
💬Breaking News
Tucker Carlson announces that the United States government may be preparing to arrest him through a CIA criminal referral.
The government is reportedly claiming that Carlson’s interviews with Iranian leaders before the war began may have violated the law.
He says the government spied on him, read his text messages, and is now trying to imprison him like Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.
Tucker Carlson announces that the United States government may be preparing to arrest him through a CIA criminal referral.
The government is reportedly claiming that Carlson’s interviews with Iranian leaders before the war began may have violated the law.
He says the government spied on him, read his text messages, and is now trying to imprison him like Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.
🖕11
Analyst Intel
🇮🇱 Extensive damage in occupied Palestine following heavy missile bombardment from both Iran and Lebanon. Red Star of David ambulances are being used to transport bodies of dead settlers to morgues across the city of occupied Yaffa (Tel Aviv).
🔻🇮🇱 The strike in Holon appears to be significant and has made serious impact (pun intended), but no one has yet to identify who the target was.
What we do know:
➡️ The strike hit a target on "Yerushalayim" street or round about there, within the coordinates 32.0185731, 34.7876023
➡️ These coordinates are of the approximate location, we were unable to determine the exact location of the targeting until a statement comes through or a death is announced (which is unlikely from Israel's side).
What we do know:
➡️ The strike hit a target on "Yerushalayim" street or round about there, within the coordinates 32.0185731, 34.7876023
➡️ These coordinates are of the approximate location, we were unable to determine the exact location of the targeting until a statement comes through or a death is announced (which is unlikely from Israel's side).
❤3👍2
🇺🇸/🇮🇷🔻Al Jazeera : Trump administration threatens news outlets over critical coverage of Iran
The administration of President Donald Trump has warned that news outlets could have their broadcasting licences revoked over critical reporting on the war against Iran, accusing the media of “distortions”.
Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr said in a social media post on Saturday that broadcasters must “operate in the public interest”, or else lose their licences.
The administration of President Donald Trump has warned that news outlets could have their broadcasting licences revoked over critical reporting on the war against Iran, accusing the media of “distortions”.
Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr said in a social media post on Saturday that broadcasters must “operate in the public interest”, or else lose their licences.
🤡7🖕4
➡️ 🇰🇷 South Korean media:
It will carefully study the possibility of deploying its warships in the Strait of Hormuz after US pressure.
It will carefully study the possibility of deploying its warships in the Strait of Hormuz after US pressure.
💩3🖕3🤡2
🇺🇸⫽🇮🇷⫽🛢️ THE LAST OIL ESCAPE HATCH
Following up from where we left, okay so here's the thing everyone should understand.
Y'all know hormuz is shut, that's 20% of world oil.
But Saudi Arabia has been quietly rerouting everything through its East-West pipeline, pumping Arab Light crude 1207km across the desert from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
And Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said this week they are hitting FULL CAPACITY - 7 MILLION barrels a day.
The 🇦🇪 was doing the same through it's Habshan - Fujairah pipeline, until 🇮🇷 rendered it to halt it's operations yesterday via drone visit.
So it's basically 2 escape hatches from Hormuz.
- One was visited by shahed.
- The other one, [YANBU] is still running.
There's a thing about Yanbu. Every single barrel leaving Yanbu going to Asia must pass through BAB AL-MANDAB.
Yes the strait near Yemen. The same strait that Ansarallah effectively shut down for over a year after October 2023.
Following up from where we left, okay so here's the thing everyone should understand.
Y'all know hormuz is shut, that's 20% of world oil.
But Saudi Arabia has been quietly rerouting everything through its East-West pipeline, pumping Arab Light crude 1207km across the desert from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
And Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said this week they are hitting FULL CAPACITY - 7 MILLION barrels a day.
The 🇦🇪 was doing the same through it's Habshan - Fujairah pipeline, until 🇮🇷 rendered it to halt it's operations yesterday via drone visit.
So it's basically 2 escape hatches from Hormuz.
- One was visited by shahed.
- The other one, [YANBU] is still running.
There's a thing about Yanbu. Every single barrel leaving Yanbu going to Asia must pass through BAB AL-MANDAB.
Yes the strait near Yemen. The same strait that Ansarallah effectively shut down for over a year after October 2023.
👍5
Analyst Intel
🇺🇸⫽🇮🇷⫽🛢️ THE LAST OIL ESCAPE HATCH Following up from where we left, okay so here's the thing everyone should understand. Y'all know hormuz is shut, that's 20% of world oil. But Saudi Arabia has been quietly rerouting everything through its East-West pipeline…
So, "the biggest risk is that if the situation escalates further, the pipeline itself is vulnerable to attacks."
Oil leaving Yanbu → Europe goes through SUEZ.
Oil leaving Yanbu → Asia goes through BAB AL-MANDAB.
Hit Bab al-Mandab → you cut 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳.
Let those ships pass but hit Suez-bound vessels → you surgically hurt 🇪🇺 the countries actively supporting the war.
Saudi Arabia exported about 6.3 million barrels per day last year. But Yanbu's maximum capacity is only about 4.5 million. So even before anyone attacks Yanbu, Saudi Arabia is already facing a deficit of nearly 2 MILLION barrels per day in export capacity. And when you combine all the pipeline alternatives that bypass Hormuz, the world is still short roughly 12 MILLION barrels per day compared to normal flows.
In simple terms: There is no real bypass. The global oil system is already running short and the AnsarAllah haven't even moved yet.
The moment Iran gives the signal, both HORMUZ and BAB AL-MANDAB could shut simultaneously.
And beyond those two routes, there are no large-scale alternatives capable of replacing those volumes in the short term.
Oil leaving Yanbu → Europe goes through SUEZ.
Oil leaving Yanbu → Asia goes through BAB AL-MANDAB.
Hit Bab al-Mandab → you cut 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳.
Let those ships pass but hit Suez-bound vessels → you surgically hurt 🇪🇺 the countries actively supporting the war.
Saudi Arabia exported about 6.3 million barrels per day last year. But Yanbu's maximum capacity is only about 4.5 million. So even before anyone attacks Yanbu, Saudi Arabia is already facing a deficit of nearly 2 MILLION barrels per day in export capacity. And when you combine all the pipeline alternatives that bypass Hormuz, the world is still short roughly 12 MILLION barrels per day compared to normal flows.
In simple terms: There is no real bypass. The global oil system is already running short and the AnsarAllah haven't even moved yet.
The moment Iran gives the signal, both HORMUZ and BAB AL-MANDAB could shut simultaneously.
And beyond those two routes, there are no large-scale alternatives capable of replacing those volumes in the short term.
👍5❤1
Analyst Intel
So, "the biggest risk is that if the situation escalates further, the pipeline itself is vulnerable to attacks." Oil leaving Yanbu → Europe goes through SUEZ. Oil leaving Yanbu → Asia goes through BAB AL-MANDAB. Hit Bab al-Mandab → you cut 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳. Let…
Prediction: 70% chance AnsarAllah (or Iran via them) move within 48h of Monday open announcement or first attack by Tuesday latest.
Timing maximizes the “weekend buffer wasted” narrative and catches Trump between strikes.
Markets price in $110-120 Brent zone fast.
US response: more targeted bombing + SPR flood + failed escort attempts.
No quick fix on either strait. Short-term pain (weeks) is locked, long-term reroutes and SPR eventually ease it, but $100+ oil becomes baseline until ceasefire.
credit: El Ra'i- the observer
Timing maximizes the “weekend buffer wasted” narrative and catches Trump between strikes.
Markets price in $110-120 Brent zone fast.
US response: more targeted bombing + SPR flood + failed escort attempts.
No quick fix on either strait. Short-term pain (weeks) is locked, long-term reroutes and SPR eventually ease it, but $100+ oil becomes baseline until ceasefire.
credit: El Ra'i- the observer
👍6
🇮🇷⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran 'reject ceasefire proposals and mediators’ — senior Iranian security official to RT News
Reuters claim is 'completely wrong & far from reality'
Reuters claim is 'completely wrong & far from reality'
👏7
🇮🇱🇺🇲⚔️🇱🇧🇮🇷 Israeli media: Rocket launches continue non-stop throughout the day and night towards towns in northern "Israel" and even the city of Haifa.
❤10👍1
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi:
• Attacks on museums and historical sites are an assault on a part of our cultural identity
• The damage to dozens of historical and cultural sites shows that the scope of the aggression has extended to cultural heritage
• This situation is a clear indication of the systematic violation of international law in its various dimensions by the American and Israeli regimes.
• Attacks on museums and historical sites are an assault on a part of our cultural identity
• The damage to dozens of historical and cultural sites shows that the scope of the aggression has extended to cultural heritage
• This situation is a clear indication of the systematic violation of international law in its various dimensions by the American and Israeli regimes.
🤬4😡3
El Al Airlines: Starting from tomorrow, the company will operate six direct flights from Tel Aviv to New York, specifically for American citizens.
😁4🤬4
Reuters: France is seeking to form a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz once the security situation stabilizes.
🖕6😁5🤡2
❤️🇮🇷 | Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi says, the leader of the revolution is in excellent health and is fully managing the situation.
❤8👍1
IOF 🐀 Spokesperson:
The IOF has begun a wide wave of attacks in western Iran
The IOF has begun a wide wave of attacks in western Iran
🖕4😡3👎1
🇸🇦🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸⚡️– IRGC Public Relations: "Saudi Arabia announced that Riyadh and the Eastern Province were targeted by 10 drones, all of which were destroyed.
This attack has no connection to Iran, and the Saudi government should investigate the origin of the attacks".
This attack has no connection to Iran, and the Saudi government should investigate the origin of the attacks".
🤷5❤2