I doubt Trump will understand this equation but ΔO_BSOH > 0 = f(f(O)) > f(O) is worth understanding.

Δ (delta) just means “change,” so ΔO_BSOH > 0 means oil disruption is increasing due to a Strait of Hormuz blockade.

f(O) is the first-order effect, the market’s immediate response, prices go up.

f(f(O)) > f(O) is the second-order effect, that response gets amplified again pushing prices even higher.

Ghalibaf’s point is simple: if Hormuz disruption worsens, price increases won’t be linear, they’ll compound.

In plain terms, if you escalate with the blockade in Hormuz, gas prices won’t just rise once, they’ll surge beyond the first spike, and today’s “high” prices will look cheap.

🟡🇮🇱🔻Reports indicate a Hezbollah ambush in the Bint Jbeil area left more than 11 Israelis dead.

#Hezbollah

A Turkish journalist in Pakistan reported that

Abbas Araqchi and Witkov nearly came to blows during talks about the Strait of Hormuz.

Witkov said the Strait of Hormuz must be opened under any circumstances, to which Araqchi replied, "We are at the negotiating table, not issuing orders. You could have opened it in 40 days; you won't be able to open it for even a minute."

🇱🇧⚔️🇮🇱🔻The clashes between Hezbollah and IOF continue in Bint Jbeil,Southern Lebanon.

🟡 3 security incidents in south Lebanon

In addition, Hezbollah missiles and drones have been firing at the Zionist colony's North non-stop since this morning

🇮🇷⚡️🇮🇱 Zionist Media Channel 13:

"There are SO MANY Iranian spies in Israel, they formed a Special Unit with Shin Bet and the Police. So far there are 38 Cases with over 50 spies, Israelis are selling out Israel for a few bucks, not a lot of money..."

🇮🇷/🇺🇸🔻Trump : "The Iranian navy is now at the bottom of the sea, having been completely destroyed — 158 ships. What we didn't target were the few of their so-called "fast attack ships", as we didn't consider them a major threat."

🇮🇷| Iran’s newly purchased Mi-28 combat helicopters from Russia were seen airborne doing routine flights in the skies of Iran.

🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇷 Trump: “34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began.”

But only if you pay the Iranian fee or friendly to Iran.

—❗️🇮🇷/🇨🇳 Chinese Defense Ministry:

‘Chinese ships continue to move in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran, which we will respect and abide by.

We expect others not to interfere in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and has opened it to us.’

CHINA SAYS ITS SHIPS WILL KEEP OPERATING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS USUAL.

The Chinese Defense Ministry stated it will honor its trade and energy agreements with Iran and expects no external interference.

It also noted that Iran controls the strait and has allowed Chinese vessels to pass.

The statement signals Beijing does not intend to comply with pressure around the US-led blockade.

—❗️🇮🇷/🇷🇺 NEW: Russian Mi-28 helicopters, acquired by Iran just before the war, are seen above Tehran

They haven’t been destroyed by the U.S. contrary to claims.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🔥🔻 Scenes of Zionist soldiers flown from Lebanon to Rambam Hospital in Haifa today

"Arrive vertically, leave horizontally"

IRAN SHOWING THEIR AD-08 “MAJID” AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM.

Apparently it performed really well in the recent fighting, downing multiple aircraft and drones.

Funny thing is, their short-range system worked better than their bigger air defenses.

Kinda interesting how that flipped.

The US is planning to block the Strait of Hormuz in order to reopen it. This will only be effective if Iran, under pressure, retreats to avoid escalating the situation; but Iran will not retreat, notes Bloomberg.

🇱🇧🔻Hezbollah announced martyrdom of First Orthodox Lebanese-Armenian, Adam Krikor Hakimian, while fighting the "Israeli" enemy.

🫡

🇮🇷 Spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard:

We will reveal capabilities that the enemy has no conception of if the war resumes.

🇨🇳⚔️🇺🇸🇮🇩 The U.S. just signed a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership with Indonesia. Maritime, subsurface, autonomous systems, special forces training, the works.

Indonesia sits astride the Strait of Malacca, the world's second most critical shipping chokepoint after Hormuz. China knows exactly what this means.

While Beijing challenges the Hormuz blockade, Washington just locked in the other strait.

🔻🇮🇱 Israeli Channel 14:

A Hezbollah fighter targeted the tank of the commander of the 52nd Armored Battalion with an anti-tank missile in the Bint Jbeil area.