‼️UKRAINIAN POST‼️

"Grain of Hormuz" How the escalation of the war in the Black Sea is affecting Ukrainian farmers and global grain prices.

Grain prices are soaring worldwide. Over the past two weeks, wheat futures for September on the French MATIF exchange have risen by 5-7%, to €231 per ton – the highest level in two years.

A similar trend is observed on the Chicago exchange, with prices up 5-7%, to $248 per ton.

And experts predict that grain prices will continue to rise.

There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, there is a threat of disruptions to exports from the Black Sea and Azov Sea, where Russia and the Ukraine have recently intensified mutual attacks on each other's port infrastructure and ships. In Russia, the movement of ships in the Sea of Azov, through which 25% of Russian grain exports pass, has become more difficult. Loading in Ukrainian ports is also difficult, and due to the constant attacks on ships, the cost of insurance has increased, and some shipowners are refusing to go to Ukrainian ports altogether. "Some insurers are raising premiums by two or even three times due to the increased risks. Overall, grain logistics this season has become record expensive," says Oleg Pendzin, head of the Economic Discussion Club. After one of the recent attacks, Reuters reported, citing a source, that 4 out of 13 major grain terminals in the ports of Odesa had suspended operations. Industry associations say that if the current intensity of attacks continues and repairs are not carried out, the port infrastructure could be significantly damaged in the coming months.

Secondly, due to record heat around the world, a poor harvest of many agricultural crops is expected.

Thirdly, grain prices are reacting to the war in Iran.
"Large volumes of oil and liquefied gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz – the main raw materials for fertilizers. The cost of these has increased significantly due to the closure of the strait. Constant escalations of the conflict are preventing the exchange rates from stabilizing. Grain, as a commodity, is linked to oil; if oil prices rise, so do prices for wheat and corn. In addition, Iran has stated that it is ready to strike at the Suez Canal – a major logistics artery for grain transshipment. All of this is putting pressure on prices," says Pendzin.

At the same time, Ukrainian farmers complain that they are not benefiting much from the global grain frenzy.
"Grain prices this year are lower than last year. In the south (Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions), a very good harvest is being gathered, but it is difficult to sell it for any price. Due to disruptions in the ports, demand for grain is low. For example, even not all drivers want to go to the Kherson region, fearing shelling. So, it is not certain that farmers will be able to earn money from the harvest this year, especially since its production costs have increased significantly due to the rising cost of fuel and fertilizers," said Tomich.

According to Reuters, due to the increasing Russian attacks, Ukrainian ports are losing a third of their grain capacity, and if the attacks continue, it is unclear whether Ukraine will be able to export the planned 43 million tonnes of harvest (which, as a reminder, is one of the key sources of foreign exchange earnings for the country).

https://stranaua.media/news/509094-pochemu-mirovye-tseny-na-zerno-bjut-rekordy-a-ukrainskie-fermery-ne-mohut-prodat-novyj-urozhaj.html

🛢 Prices break the $90 and will continue rising faster as Yemeni forces blocking Saudi ports.

I wonder if now that Syrskyi is gone, Deepstate's maps will improve due to a decrease in pressure.

You may remember that they were threatened with mobilisation if they showed certain Russian advances (such as the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka), with one of their moderators even being killed at the frontline after being forcibly mobilised.

Although, considering that in their most recent spat with me, they admitted to only show Russian advances with the permission of the Ukrainian command, so I'm somehow not convinced much will change.

Last night the Russian Armed Forces continued to launch group strikes using high-precision air and ground-based weapons as well as attack drones.

Port infrastructure used for unloading and storing military cargo and fuel tanks intended to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces were hit in the port of Odessa.

A cargo ship and a bulk carrier type vessel, transporting cargo for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the ports of Odessa and Chornomorsk were hit while at sea (15 km and 53 km southeast of Odessa).

A Nova Poshta logistics center used for storing military cargo was hit in the city of Odessa.

In the area of the village of Kovalevka (25 km northwest of Odessa) a Neptune-2 coastal missile complex was hit with two launch vehicles and a transport-loading vehicle destroyed.

https://t.me/opersvodki/33457

‼️UKRAINIAN POST‼️

There are no more reserves of cheap fuel, and prices will skyrocket in the coming days, says director of the A-95 consulting group Kukun.

According to Kukun, the cost of fuel will increase to 93 UAH per liter ($7.82 per gallon) within the next week.

https://t.me/insiderUKR/129426

Russia may carry out another attack on Odesa Oblast using 4 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers later today.

Whoops... Maersk is leaving Odessa

The world's largest container shipping company is suspending operations in the ports around Odessa. Ships heading to Odessa are being rerouted to the Romanian port of Constanta.

The reasons are obvious. Since July 11, Russian Armed Forces have been conducting a systematic campaign against port infrastructure in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions. Odessa, Chernomorsk, Yuzhny, Izmail, and Dnieper-Bugsky are under regular attack.

In these conditions, insurers are putting a stop on war risk policies and shipowners are increasingly citing force majeure. According to MarineTraffic data as of July 21, incoming traffic to Ukrainian Black Sea ports has fallen to just three commercial vessels per day, compared to eight before the escalation.

Maersk is not the first, nor will it be the last. Previously, Kernel Holding, the largest Ukrainian grain exporter, suspended operations in Chernomorsk. Four out of thirteen major grain terminals have suspended purchases. On July 22, the Greek government officially recommended that the merchant fleet strengthen security measures in the Black Sea.

The export capacity of Ukrainian ports has fallen by a third – from 6 to 4 million tons of grain per month. Wheat prices on the Chicago exchange have risen to $6.95 per bushel – a two-year high. Bloomberg reports on the risks of a global food crisis.

Ukrainian traders are already discussing a return to river transport along the Danube, with transshipment in Constanta. The scheme is similar to that used in 2022 – before the opening of the "grain corridor." Over three years of active conflict, the Ukraine's maritime logistics are returning to square one.

Maersk's departure is not a military blockade. It's a market correction: the ports of Greater Odessa have become a zone that major carriers will not enter without exorbitant insurance premiums. And with those premiums, they certainly won't go – the freight margins simply can't bear it.

An interesting 40-day plan by Zelenskyy to force Russia into peace. Will they go on with it?

https://t.me/sashakots/63283

⚡️Madyar is bragging about his drones hitting fuel supplies in Crimea and how he's leaving the Kerch bridge open so Russians can flee or so he says (he cant hit it lol)

People will look back in the 414 Madyar birds as pure fucking morons who economically killed Ukraine as now Russia has basically launched its own maritime blockade of Ukraine.

One region of Russia for nearly 70 percent of your countries national income and 90 percent of your total foreign currency earnings.

⚡️Kiev, Odessa, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Nikolaev, as well as a number of border regions may run out of gasoline, - stated the Ukrainian military analyst Taras Chmut.

The "isolation" of Crimea is bringing its fruits.

‼️UKRAINIAN POST‼️

Fuel reserves in underground storage tanks at gas stations have been depleted to mitigate potential losses from attacks, according to the Regional Military Administration.

▪️Mobile gas stations will be deployed as necessary.
▪️Concrete shelters are under construction in the vicinity of gas stations.
▪️Police patrols will be stationed at gas stations to prevent vehicle accumulation.

https://t.me/insiderUKR/129470

— 🇮🇷 NEW: At the site of a bombed bridge in Iran, new roads were simply built on the dry river bed, and traffic continues as normal

@Middle_East_Spectator