#Инсайд Наш источник в ОП рассказал, что автомобильный коридор для вывоза украинского зерна фактически перестал быть экономически эффективной альтернативой морской логистике. Рост стоимости топлива и перевозок сделал длинное автомобильное плечо слишком дорогим для массовых аграрных грузов, прежде всего зерновых с низкой маржинальностью. Отраслевые данные подтверждают проблему: дорогая альтернативная логистика уже сокращает маржу производителей, а автомобильные перевозки растут слабо именно из-за высокой стоимости.

По словам источника, в Кабмине считают ситуацию критической уже не только для экспорта, но и для следующего производственного цикла. Если фермер заранее понимает, что выращенное зерно невозможно вывезти по приемлемой цене, экономический смысл расширять посевы исчезает. Морской маршрут остается ключевым: еще в июле около 80% украинского экспорта зерна, масличных и продуктов их переработки шло через Черное море, тогда как на альтернативные «коридоры солидарности» приходилось около 20%.
На Банковой опасаются цепной реакции: дорогая логистика давит закупочные цены внутри страны, зерно накапливается на складах, у аграриев сокращается оборотный капитал, после чего они начинают экономить уже на семенах, удобрениях и будущих посевных площадях. По сути, проблема экспорта постепенно превращается в проблему самого смысла производить зерно на экспорт.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/30718

Kiev is only 40% ready for winter, stated Ukrainian MP Nina Yuzhanina:

"The funds were allocated late, and the payments to contractors were made late as well. To prepare for winter, the money should have been allocated no later than April. No one can complete the work by October if the funds were received in late August or early September."

@ukr_leaks_eng

Out of the 31 cities in Donetsk Oblast controlled by Ukraine before Russia's invasion in 2022, 20 have been destroyed and 11 have suffered significant damage.

Recently, the cities of Bilozerske and Mykolaivka have been added to my "destroyed" list, and Druzhkivka will likely also be added in the near future. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk were also added to the "significantly damaged" list.

The 20 destroyed cities include: Lyman, Mykolaivka, Siversk, Soledar, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka, Toretsk, Zalizne, Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Dobropillya, Bilytske, Bilozerske, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Marinka, and Vuhledar.

The 11 significantly damaged cities include Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Svyatohirsk, Svitlodarsk, Ukrainsk, Selydove, Hirnyk, Novohrodivka, Volnovakha, and Mariupol.

Of these cities, only 6 (Lyman, Svyatohirsk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Bilozerske) are under full Ukrainain control. Another 4 (Mykolaivka, Kostyantynivka, Dobropillya, and Bilytske) are contested. The other 21 are under Russian control.

The 20 cities under the control of DPR forces prior to 2022 remain largely intact.

What does Russia's rising military budget say about its plans for the war?

The Russian government began the month by submitting a three-year budget plan to parliament, proposing yet another increase in funding for its war against Ukraine.

On the surface, the planned increase looks substantial. Russia's overall military budget is set to rise to around 17 trillion rubles (approximately $200 billion) in 2027, up from 12 trillion rubles in 2026 — a 27% increase in nominal spending.

Rather than pointing to a sudden surge in military spending, the latest budget figures suggest that Russia is continuing to gradually build up and sustain its military capacity, signaling a readiness for a prolonged war.

Photo: Alexander Kazakov / Pool / AFP via Getty Images

‼️UKRAINIAN POST‼️

Kyiv residents are increasingly moving to western Ukraine, according to media reports.

In the past two months, the number of apartments available for rent in Kyiv has increased by 66%.

At the same time, the availability of rental housing in western regions has significantly decreased.

https://t.me/kiev_levyy_bereg/84806

On the Northern Bridge in Kyiv, protective structures made of fishing net — grill-style frames against drones — are being installed. 🌉🕸🛡
Coordinates: 50.492, 30.54

17 Flamingos shot down!

It turns out that during the past 24 hours (from 8:00 AM to 8:00 AM), Russian air defense systems intercepted 17 Flamingo cruise missiles with a 100% success rate.

This is a remarkable outcome. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have never launched 17 missiles in a single day – it appears they intended to penetrate Moscow's air defense today but were "unshucksessful"...

https://t.me/yurasumy/29587

❗️The upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack that I was warning about will likely take place tonight. It will be combined with strategic bombers.

During the night, 3 Tu-160M and 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. The Tu-160s flew to Belaya Airbase, and the Tu-95MS flew to Olenya and possibly Engels-2. Most/all of them are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, which were delivered to Ukrainka Airbase with an An-124-100 military transport aircraft yesterday.

In addition, 2 Buyan-M corvettes were re-equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles in the Caspian Sea following the earlier "Centre-2026" exercises. They are stationed at Kaspiysk Naval Base, Republic of Dagestan.

Furthermore, up to 40 missiles of various types (Iskander-M, RM-48U, Oniks-M, Kn-23, & Zircon) are ready in Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, & Rostov Oblasts after another dozen or so were delivered in the last few days. Up to one-third of these missiles are Kn-23 ballistics. Not all of the ~40 missiles will be used in this upcoming attack; some will be reserved for a future attack.

Hundreds of Geran-2 drones, Geran-4 jet-drones, Geran-5 jet-drones, and S8000 Banderol cruise missiles are also ready for use at launch points surrounding Ukraine. They will likely be launched over a longer period of time to exhaust Ukrainian air defences.

The main target of this attack will likely be energy infrastructure. The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipro City, and Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast), as well as the western regions of Ukraine (especially Rivne, Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts).

The threat window for missiles (excluding Banderols) is from 12am-8am. As usual, ground-based missiles will be used first, and air-launched cruise missiles (Kh-101s) will be used second.

It is not 100% guaranteed that an attack will indeed take place tonight, however the threat is much higher than previous nights when increased threat levels were issued.

Russian forces have captured the city of Bilytske, Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk District).

Pre-war population: ~7,764.
Total land area: ~3.21 km².

The fighting for Bilytske lasted approximately 6 months, 20 days.