https://www.deepfission.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/116/department-of-energy-approves-nuclear-safety-design-agreement-for-deep-fissions-gravity-reactor-designed-to-convert-to-commercial-operation
This is an interesting combination:
Relatively familiar pressurized-water reactor technology.
Oil-and-gas-style drilling and well construction.
Underground containment and passive cooling.
Potentially faster and cheaper deployment near data centers and industrial loads.
However, no commercial nuclear reactor has yet operated using this particular deep-borehole configuration. The company’s Parsons, Kansas project is still in Phase 1, involving geological measurements, a non-nuclear prototype canister and eventually a commercial-scale test borehole. Its nuclear pilot is targeted for 2027.
The bull case
The stock has already repriced substantially
FISN’s June 2026 offering was priced at $16, compared with today’s approximately $9.15. Investors are therefore no longer paying the IPO valuation.
The concept could have enormous economic value
The expensive parts of conventional nuclear projects include massive above-ground containment buildings, seismic engineering, security infrastructure and lengthy site-specific construction. If underground placement meaningfully reduces those requirements, Deep Fission could potentially deliver nuclear power faster and at materially lower capital cost.
The design also uses relatively conventional reactor principles rather than depending entirely on exotic fuel or an entirely new reactor physics concept. That may reduce one category of technical risk, although the underground installation itself introduces substantial new engineering and regulatory risks.
It has tangible progress—not just presentations
At Parsons, Deep Fission reports that it has:
Drilled a roughly 6,000-foot data-acquisition well.
Fabricated and pressure-tested a prototype canister.
Delivered that canister to the project site.
Entered the DOE Reactor Pilot Program.
The next meaningful demonstration is drilling a commercial-scale borehole and safely deploying the non-nuclear prototype.
This is an interesting combination:
Relatively familiar pressurized-water reactor technology.
Oil-and-gas-style drilling and well construction.
Underground containment and passive cooling.
Potentially faster and cheaper deployment near data centers and industrial loads.
However, no commercial nuclear reactor has yet operated using this particular deep-borehole configuration. The company’s Parsons, Kansas project is still in Phase 1, involving geological measurements, a non-nuclear prototype canister and eventually a commercial-scale test borehole. Its nuclear pilot is targeted for 2027.
The bull case
The stock has already repriced substantially
FISN’s June 2026 offering was priced at $16, compared with today’s approximately $9.15. Investors are therefore no longer paying the IPO valuation.
The concept could have enormous economic value
The expensive parts of conventional nuclear projects include massive above-ground containment buildings, seismic engineering, security infrastructure and lengthy site-specific construction. If underground placement meaningfully reduces those requirements, Deep Fission could potentially deliver nuclear power faster and at materially lower capital cost.
The design also uses relatively conventional reactor principles rather than depending entirely on exotic fuel or an entirely new reactor physics concept. That may reduce one category of technical risk, although the underground installation itself introduces substantial new engineering and regulatory risks.
It has tangible progress—not just presentations
At Parsons, Deep Fission reports that it has:
Drilled a roughly 6,000-foot data-acquisition well.
Fabricated and pressure-tested a prototype canister.
Delivered that canister to the project site.
Entered the DOE Reactor Pilot Program.
The next meaningful demonstration is drilling a commercial-scale borehole and safely deploying the non-nuclear prototype.
Deep Fission, Inc.
Department of Energy Approves Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for Deep Fission's Gravity™ Reactor, Designed to Convert to Commercial…
BERKELEY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Deep Fission, Inc. (Nasdaq: FISN) (“Deep Fission” or the “Company”), an advanced nuclear energy…...
🔥2💯2❤1
https://www.kosu.org/energy-environment/2025-12-22/kansas-will-get-the-worlds-first-mile-deep-nuclear-reactor-30-miles-from-oklahoma-border
The next meaningful demonstration is drilling a commercial-scale borehole and safely deploying the non-nuclear prototype.
It has enough cash to continue near-term development
Deep Fission ended June with approximately $93 million in cash, after raising $80 million privately and approximately $34 million net from its public offering.
At the current market capitalization, the enterprise value after subtracting cash is roughly:
\$504\text{m market cap}-\$93\text{m cash}
\approx \$411\text{m}
That is not an absurd valuation should the technology ultimately work, because a successful commercial reactor platform could be worth several billion dollars.
Why I would not call it a buy today
It has no revenue
Deep Fission has not commercialized a reactor, and none of its planned revenue streams has begun. Its current value is entirely based on future technical and commercial success.
The cash runway is already a concern
For the first six months of 2026, Deep Fission:
Lost approximately $52.4 million.
Used approximately $42.5 million of operating cash.
Ended June with approximately $93 million.
Most importantly, management explicitly says its existing cash and recent financing proceeds are not sufficient to fund operations for the next 12 months under the current plan. It expects to require substantial additional financing to complete, license and commercially deploy its first reactor.
That makes further share issuance highly probable.
Dilution risk is substantial
There were approximately 59.7 million shares outstanding at June 30, but also:
Approximately 8.1 million stock options.
Restricted stock and RSUs.
Warrants.
An equity plan that can automatically increase annually by up to 5% of outstanding shares.
The company raised shares at:
$3 in September 2025.
$15 in February 2026.
$16 in June 2026.
That financing history shows both rapid valuation changes and a continuing dependence on equity capital.
The present valuation still prices in meaningful success
A roughly $411 million enterprise value for a pre-revenue company is not cheap in an absolute sense. It may be inexpensive relative to some highly promoted advanced-nuclear peers, but it still assumes a reasonable probability that Deep Fission progresses far beyond its current non-nuclear engineering phase.
The fundamental outcomes could be binary:
Successful borehole demonstration and regulatory progress could lift the stock dramatically.
Drilling problems, groundwater concerns, regulatory delays, cost overruns or unsuccessful deployment could reduce the equity value sharply.
The hardest engineering work remains ahead
A 6,000-foot characterization well and tested canister are useful milestones, but they do not yet prove:
Reliable insertion and retrieval of a nuclear reactor.
Long-term borehole integrity under heat, pressure and radiation.
Maintenance and inspection procedures.
Emergency access and decommissioning.
Groundwater isolation.
Commercial construction costs.
NRC licensing for ordinary commercial deployment.
Community opposition has also emerged around the Parsons project, particularly regarding environmental oversight, water risks and the unusual regulatory pathway.
The next meaningful demonstration is drilling a commercial-scale borehole and safely deploying the non-nuclear prototype.
It has enough cash to continue near-term development
Deep Fission ended June with approximately $93 million in cash, after raising $80 million privately and approximately $34 million net from its public offering.
At the current market capitalization, the enterprise value after subtracting cash is roughly:
\$504\text{m market cap}-\$93\text{m cash}
\approx \$411\text{m}
That is not an absurd valuation should the technology ultimately work, because a successful commercial reactor platform could be worth several billion dollars.
Why I would not call it a buy today
It has no revenue
Deep Fission has not commercialized a reactor, and none of its planned revenue streams has begun. Its current value is entirely based on future technical and commercial success.
The cash runway is already a concern
For the first six months of 2026, Deep Fission:
Lost approximately $52.4 million.
Used approximately $42.5 million of operating cash.
Ended June with approximately $93 million.
Most importantly, management explicitly says its existing cash and recent financing proceeds are not sufficient to fund operations for the next 12 months under the current plan. It expects to require substantial additional financing to complete, license and commercially deploy its first reactor.
That makes further share issuance highly probable.
Dilution risk is substantial
There were approximately 59.7 million shares outstanding at June 30, but also:
Approximately 8.1 million stock options.
Restricted stock and RSUs.
Warrants.
An equity plan that can automatically increase annually by up to 5% of outstanding shares.
The company raised shares at:
$3 in September 2025.
$15 in February 2026.
$16 in June 2026.
That financing history shows both rapid valuation changes and a continuing dependence on equity capital.
The present valuation still prices in meaningful success
A roughly $411 million enterprise value for a pre-revenue company is not cheap in an absolute sense. It may be inexpensive relative to some highly promoted advanced-nuclear peers, but it still assumes a reasonable probability that Deep Fission progresses far beyond its current non-nuclear engineering phase.
The fundamental outcomes could be binary:
Successful borehole demonstration and regulatory progress could lift the stock dramatically.
Drilling problems, groundwater concerns, regulatory delays, cost overruns or unsuccessful deployment could reduce the equity value sharply.
The hardest engineering work remains ahead
A 6,000-foot characterization well and tested canister are useful milestones, but they do not yet prove:
Reliable insertion and retrieval of a nuclear reactor.
Long-term borehole integrity under heat, pressure and radiation.
Maintenance and inspection procedures.
Emergency access and decommissioning.
Groundwater isolation.
Commercial construction costs.
NRC licensing for ordinary commercial deployment.
Community opposition has also emerged around the Parsons project, particularly regarding environmental oversight, water risks and the unusual regulatory pathway.
KOSU
Kansas will get the world's first mile-deep nuclear reactor 30 miles from Oklahoma border
Deep Fission says it plans to install a nuclear reactor underground at an industrial park in southeast Kansas. State and local government leaders are on board. It's part of a national push for new nuclear energy generation.
❤2🔥1
What would make me upgrade it to a buy
I would wait for at least one of these developments:
Successful full-scale non-nuclear borehole deployment and retrieval.
This would retire an important portion of the drilling and mechanical risk.
A clearly funded path through the nuclear pilot.
Another capital raise is not necessarily bad, but the price, dilution and runway matter greatly.
DOE authorization followed by meaningful pilot construction progress.
A binding customer agreement with credible economics, rather than a nonbinding development pipeline.
Evidence that total reactor cost and construction time remain competitive after accounting for drilling, fuel, turbines, grid connection, operations and decommissioning.
How I would handle the stock
At $9.15, I would classify it as:
Core portfolio: Avoid.
Long-term high-risk nuclear basket: Small speculative position only.
Aggressive event-driven trade: Potentially interesting around prototype-deployment and DOE milestones, but highly volatile.
Preferred approach: Watch until the commercial-scale non-nuclear deployment is completed and the next financing terms are known.
My practical rating is:
Technology: 8/10 interesting
Current technical proof: 3/10
Balance-sheet strength: 4/10
Dilution risk: High
Valuation attractiveness: Moderate, not obviously cheap
Overall: Speculative hold/watch—not yet a clean buy
I would wait for at least one of these developments:
Successful full-scale non-nuclear borehole deployment and retrieval.
This would retire an important portion of the drilling and mechanical risk.
A clearly funded path through the nuclear pilot.
Another capital raise is not necessarily bad, but the price, dilution and runway matter greatly.
DOE authorization followed by meaningful pilot construction progress.
A binding customer agreement with credible economics, rather than a nonbinding development pipeline.
Evidence that total reactor cost and construction time remain competitive after accounting for drilling, fuel, turbines, grid connection, operations and decommissioning.
How I would handle the stock
At $9.15, I would classify it as:
Core portfolio: Avoid.
Long-term high-risk nuclear basket: Small speculative position only.
Aggressive event-driven trade: Potentially interesting around prototype-deployment and DOE milestones, but highly volatile.
Preferred approach: Watch until the commercial-scale non-nuclear deployment is completed and the next financing terms are known.
My practical rating is:
Technology: 8/10 interesting
Current technical proof: 3/10
Balance-sheet strength: 4/10
Dilution risk: High
Valuation attractiveness: Moderate, not obviously cheap
Overall: Speculative hold/watch—not yet a clean buy
🔥2❤1
Deep Fission, Valar Atomics, and Radiant Industries are three nuclear-energy startups developing smaller alternatives to traditional nuclear plants. Deep Fission plans to install approximately 15-megawatt reactors deep underground, which could reduce construction and containment costs. However, its technology remains at an early stage and still requires significant testing, regulatory approval, and additional financing. Valar Atomics is developing high-temperature gas reactors for electricity and industrial heat. It appears to be the most technically advanced of the three because it has already achieved reactor criticality, but it remains a private company with a high valuation. Radiant Industries is developing Kaleidos, a portable one-megawatt microreactor designed to replace diesel generators at military bases and remote locations. Its smaller size and clearly defined market may make commercialization easier. Overall, Valar has made the strongest technical progress, Radiant may have the most practical early business model, and Deep Fission offers the greatest speculative investment opportunity because it is publicly traded, although it also carries the greatest risk.
🔥4❤1
The future prospects of Deep Fission, Valar Atomics, and Radiant Industries are promising because electricity demand is increasing, especially from artificial intelligence, data centers, military facilities, and remote industrial sites. Valar Atomics currently appears to have the strongest position because it has already achieved a fueled criticality demonstration and recently obtained major financing to move toward reactor production. However, it still needs to prove that its reactors can generate electricity reliably and economically on a commercial scale. (The Department of Energy’s Energy.gov (https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-celebrates-second-advanced-reactor-achieving-criticality?
Energy.gov
Department of Energy Celebrates Second Advanced Reactor Achieving Criticality
Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Energy Reactor Pilot Program, Valar Atomics’ advanced reactor design, Ward 250, successfully completed a zero-power fueled criticality demonstration.
❤2
Deep Fission potentially offers the greatest long-term transformation because placing reactors deep underground could reduce construction, containment, and land costs. It is also participating in the United States Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program. Nevertheless, its future is the most uncertain because the underground design remains largely unproven, requires additional financing, and may face environmental, community, and regulatory opposition. (
Deep Fission, Inc. https://www.deepfission.com/
Overall, Valar seems to have the strongest technical and financial momentum, Radiant may have the most practical path to early commercialization, and Deep Fission has the greatest speculative potential but also the greatest risk.
Deep Fission, Inc. https://www.deepfission.com/
Overall, Valar seems to have the strongest technical and financial momentum, Radiant may have the most practical path to early commercialization, and Deep Fission has the greatest speculative potential but also the greatest risk.
Deep Fission, Inc.
Deep Fission is an advanced nuclear energy deployment company developing small modular pressurized water reactors designed to operate one mile underground. Advanced nuclear for the AI era.
🔥2✍1
Once Again
Deep Fission
Radiant Nuclear
Valar Atomic
Class Dismissed
Deep Fission
Radiant Nuclear
Valar Atomic
Class Dismissed
❤7✍6
Who do you think will Succeed in the next 10 Years (2026-2036)
Anonymous Poll
7%
Deep Fission ☢️
10%
Radiant Nuclear ☢️
16%
Valar Atomics ☢️
71%
All of The Above 📈
Forwarded from Doomsday Tradecraft
A verification phrase provides a fast authentication layer when a caller's voice, video, number, or emotional story cannot be trusted. It helps families and teams pause urgent requests, expose impersonation attempts, and confirm identity before releasing money, information, access, or assistance.
#tradecraft #opsec #personalsecurity #socialengineering
#lifehacking
#tradecraft #opsec #personalsecurity #socialengineering
#lifehacking
🔥3👍2