I'm also cautious about the scandium price assumption
The report says scandium oxide sells around US$3,350–3,500/kg.
There really isn't one transparent scandium price. The USGS reported roughly US$640/kg for 99.99% oxide in 2025, while Shanghai Metals Market currently shows Chinese scandium oxide around US$590–690/kg depending on purity. Western strategic procurement and project assumptions can be much higher; Sunrise, for example, uses a US$1,500/kg long-term assumption, while some U.S. government purchases have been far higher still.
That enormous pricing dispersion tells you how immature this market is.
It's particularly important because the entire world currently produces only around 80 tonnes/year. MRD has 72,637 tonnes of contained scandium oxide in the ground — hundreds of years of today's global market. More contained tonnes therefore cannot logically be valued linearly forever. Offtake and actual market growth matter much more than simply proving another 10,000 tonnes of resource.
Dilution is another thing I would expect
Cashu's A$0.144 target explicitly assumes no dilution. Yet the report also says further capital raising is likely because MRD is pre-revenue, has only about A$1.89m cash, and needs metallurgical work, studies and eventually a demonstration plant.
That doesn't bother me by itself — explorers have to raise money. The current higher share price actually makes fundraising easier. But it does mean that 14.4¢ on today's 1.328bn-share denominator is optimistic. A few years of development could leave substantially more shares outstanding.
The report says scandium oxide sells around US$3,350–3,500/kg.
There really isn't one transparent scandium price. The USGS reported roughly US$640/kg for 99.99% oxide in 2025, while Shanghai Metals Market currently shows Chinese scandium oxide around US$590–690/kg depending on purity. Western strategic procurement and project assumptions can be much higher; Sunrise, for example, uses a US$1,500/kg long-term assumption, while some U.S. government purchases have been far higher still.
That enormous pricing dispersion tells you how immature this market is.
It's particularly important because the entire world currently produces only around 80 tonnes/year. MRD has 72,637 tonnes of contained scandium oxide in the ground — hundreds of years of today's global market. More contained tonnes therefore cannot logically be valued linearly forever. Offtake and actual market growth matter much more than simply proving another 10,000 tonnes of resource.
Dilution is another thing I would expect
Cashu's A$0.144 target explicitly assumes no dilution. Yet the report also says further capital raising is likely because MRD is pre-revenue, has only about A$1.89m cash, and needs metallurgical work, studies and eventually a demonstration plant.
That doesn't bother me by itself — explorers have to raise money. The current higher share price actually makes fundraising easier. But it does mean that 14.4¢ on today's 1.328bn-share denominator is optimistic. A few years of development could leave substantially more shares outstanding.
✍4
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When it comes to Scandium
NioCorp seems to be ahead everyone else
NioCorp seems to be ahead everyone else
Forwarded from Azazel News (Aries)
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When it comes to Scandium
NioCorp seems to be ahead everyone else
NioCorp seems to be ahead everyone else
👍4
After the announcement with Lockheed Martin
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/niocorp-signs-mou-lockheed-martin-145645612.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/niocorp-signs-mou-lockheed-martin-145645612.html
Yahoo Finance
NioCorp Signs MOU With Lockheed Martin for Potential Long-Term Scandium Supply
The agreement could support the development of a domestic U. S.
NioCorp is Now at $4.04
And they haven’t even started delivering the Scandium to Lockheed Martin
Mount Ridley is at 31¢ per share
But they haven’t even started mining or have even signed any Memorandum of Understanding with any American or Australian or Euro Defense companies
Now what do you do?
Explain your strategy
And they haven’t even started delivering the Scandium to Lockheed Martin
Mount Ridley is at 31¢ per share
But they haven’t even started mining or have even signed any Memorandum of Understanding with any American or Australian or Euro Defense companies
Now what do you do?
Explain your strategy
👍2
Now at $4.04
And they haven’t even started delivering the Scandium to Lockheed Martin
Mount Ridley is at 31¢ per share
But they haven’t even started mining or have even signed any Memorandum of Understanding with any American or Australian or Euro Defense companies
#HOMEWORK
Now what do you do?
Explain your investment strategy for Scandium
And they haven’t even started delivering the Scandium to Lockheed Martin
Mount Ridley is at 31¢ per share
But they haven’t even started mining or have even signed any Memorandum of Understanding with any American or Australian or Euro Defense companies
#HOMEWORK
Now what do you do?
Explain your investment strategy for Scandium
👍5❤2
Forwarded from JC
Neither company has delivered a gram of commercial scandium yet. That said, NB carries less unproven risk per dollar than MRD, since it's simply further along. For exposure, I'd make NB the larger, higher conviction position and treat MRD as the lottery ticket rather than choosing just one.