NioCorp is Now at $4.04

And they haven’t even started delivering the Scandium to Lockheed Martin

Mount Ridley is at 31¢ per share
But they haven’t even started mining or have even signed any Memorandum of Understanding with any American or Australian or Euro Defense companies


Now what do you do?
Explain your strategy

https://youtu.be/RwH-CNpi3hM?

Neither company has delivered a gram of commercial scandium yet. That said, NB carries less unproven risk per dollar than MRD, since it's simply further along. For exposure, I'd make NB the larger, higher conviction position and treat MRD as the lottery ticket rather than choosing just one.

Anyone else

The scandium market is tiny. An estimated 60 tonnes of scandium oxide was consumed globally in 2025, according to the USGS. At roughly $1,500 to $3,000 per kg oxide, that is a $100M to $250M a year global market. NioCorp alone plans approximately 100 tonnes of scandium oxide annually, and Syerston is designed to produce 60 tonnes annually. Two Western mines would produce 2.5x current world demand.

So this is not a supply shortage trade. It is a bet that available Western supply unlocks latent demand (Al Sc aerospace alloys, solid oxide fuel cells for data centers, RF filters) before price collapse kills the miners. Second order: government money is now pulling every junior into scandium. Third order: when Syerston and Elk Creek come online, price falls, and the marginal, unfinanced projects never get built. Winners are first to production with offtake and a government balance sheet behind them. Biggest resource does not win. Lowest cost per kg and earliest cash flow wins.

The three names,l ranked by de-risking

1. Sunrise Energy Metals (ASX: SRL). The Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital announced Friday a $400 million conditional loan commitment for Syerston, grade of 414 parts per million (ppm) scandium. But the stock now carries a market value near AUD 3 billion, it has no price floor unlike MP Materials, and commercial production is not targeted until the second half of 2028. Most de risked, already priced.

2. NioCorp. Scandium is the headline, niobium is the business. Total upfront CAPEX of $1.85 billion and the EXIM amount is currently being reevaluated by EXIM in connection with its ongoing due diligence. The Lockheed deal is 15 of 100 tonnes and non-binding, and both companies have agreed to negotiate a definitive agreement. The entire trade is whether EXIM closes and at what dilution. They already did a $100M raise in February at higher prices. Expect more equity before construction.

3. Mount Ridley. Grade is the problem nobody talks about: 946Mt resource at 50ppm means moving 20 tonnes of ore per kg of scandium versus 2.4 tonnes at Syerston. Inferred only, no scoping study, no offtake, and the recent coverage was commissioned and paid for by Mount Ridley Mines Limited. This is a lottery ticket that ran 700%+ in a year on a resource upgrade, not on economics.

From Redstone Arsenal

Anyone else?

I see 13 thumbs up but no 13 opinions

Fuck it ending the class

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