🇺🇸🕊🇺🇦🇷🇺 New US peace proposals for Ukraine envisage a demilitarised zone in Donbass, sanctions relief for Russia and potential EU membership plus an investment package for Kiev.

Under the reported proposals, Russia would be offered major business agreements with the US, normalisation of political relations and the resumption of gas exports to Western Europe, including through Nord Stream (which would be guaranteed by Washington).

Kiev would receive cash infusions in exchange for abandoning its NATO ambitions.

The Economist notes that Ukrainian officials are not familiar with every detail of the latest conditions, although they understand their broad outlines.

🔗 Brian McDonald

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 US fired over 600 missile interceptors defending Israel in three years

The US fired an estimated 609 ballistic missile interceptors to defend Israeli territory from October 2023 through September 2026, based on my analysis of Pentagon budget documents, media reports, and open-source intelligence.

This does not include the interceptors the US fired to protect its own military assets while waging war on Israel’s behalf, including the 30 Patriot interceptors US troops used on June 23, 2025, to shoot down 13 missiles fired at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar (Iran’s telegraphed retaliation for the US attacks on June 21), and virtually all of the approximately 1,800 Patriot interceptors the US fired in the first seven months of the Iran War.

The US has used its most expensive interceptors to defend Israel against counterattacks from Iran and elsewhere in the region. Of the estimated 609 interceptors the US has fired in defense of Israeli territory since October 2023, 31% were the $31 million SM-3 and 62% were the $12 million THAAD. All told, the US spent $11 billion shooting down missiles for Israel from October 2023 through September 2026.

🔗 https://www.stephensemler.com/p/us-fired-over-600-missile-interceptors

—❗️🏴/🇯🇴/☦️ NEW: Several people were killed and wounded in a horrible terrorist attack against an Orthodox church in Karak Governorate, Jordan

The two gunmen are suspected to be part of the ISIS terrorist organization.

NOTE: Video shows aftermath of the attack and is very graphic, viewer discretion is advised.

@Middle_East_Spectator

☪️ The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran cratered the economies of the Middle East according to IMF forecasts

The only Middle Eastern economy expected to record GDP growth is Oman.

The biggest losers are Iraq and Kuwait whose GDP is expected to contract by 16% and 16.7% respectively, followed by Qatar with its GDP contracting by 15.6%, Bahrain contracting by 11.3%, followed by Iran contracting by 7.6%

The GDP of Saudi Arabia is forecasted to contract by 3.3% but the continued war with Ansarallah/Houthis could change things for the worse rather quickly and cause the Saudi economy to contract even further.

@CIG_telegram

🛢 Brent Crude has has reached $117/barrel.

The Brent Crude price is now $2 away from surpassing the most recent all time peak of $119/barrel hit in June 2022 in the background of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Aide to the Ukrainian president, Sergey "Flash" contradicts some reports appearing in Western media that Starlink restrictions on Ukrainian drones were lifted.

🔗 https://t.me/serhii_flash/7826

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Ukraine's economy shrinks 2.4% y/y in September as Russian strikes bite

Ukraine's economy shrank 2.4% year-on-year in September as Russian strikes hit industry and transport, Kiev's Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) estimated on October 20.

The decline deepened from August, which the IER revised to a 1.9% contraction on new agricultural data. In its monthly economic monitor the institute estimated that real GDP was lower over the first nine months of 2026 than a year earlier, and it now expects a full-year fall of about 0.5%, citing a further deterioration in October and a higher base.

The numbers mark a sharp turn for an economy the IER still had growing 1.3% y/y in July. Kiev-based investment group ICU abandoned its growth forecast on October 14 and now sees GDP shrinking 0.6% this year and 1.9% in 2027, the worst performance since the first year of the full-scale invasion.

Transport took the heaviest blow, with value added down 20% in September. Restrictions on Black Sea ports and problems on the railways are pushing freight onto the roads, the IER said, but hauliers are short of drivers and trucking costs far more than shipping by sea. Ukraine's own exports have been caught in the drone war on ports, with traffic through the three Odesa region seaports down by nearly 95% in August and September.

Output in the extractive industry fell 12.3%, mainly on lower iron ore production, with natural gas output making up part of the gap. Manufacturing dropped 7%, dragged down by metallurgy after Russian missiles and drones shut large steel plants. Defence production limited the fall, though the IER noted that arms makers lack long-term contracts.

Agriculture contracted 5.6% after a fall of about 12% in August. With exports constrained, farmers are storing grain in bags, silos and mobile elevators, and they have sown less land, which the IER warned could hurt the 2027 harvest. Trade fell 5.5% on lower exports and the destruction of warehouses, and electricity and gas distribution was down by about 11%.

The institute warned that the closure of metallurgical plants and changes in how large retailers operate could cut employment and the wage bill. "High uncertainty leaves the possibility of further revisions to calculations," it said. The IER figures are analytical estimates; the State Statistics Service publishes official GDP data quarterly.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-economy-shrinks-2-4-y-y-in-september-as-russian-strikes-bite-478414/

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇶⚡️ — BREAKING: A source in Iraq's Coordination Framework tells Iraqi Kurdish media Channel8 that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was informed of a U.S. strike against Iran in the coming days.

The U.S. and Iraqi governments both warned against the Islamic Resistance in Iraq joining the conflict, with the U.S. warning it would "heavily impact the country's political system and state stability" and Iraq warning they will be confronted "according to the law".

🇮🇶🇮🇶⚡️ — A source in Iraq's Coordination Framework tells Channel8 that ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi government and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have yielded no fruit, with a compromise proposed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq where missiles and UAVs are kept by the militias under government supervision was rejected.

Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba remain unwilling to disarm their weaponry.

Pro-Iran Iraqi factions are also planning to launch protests in response to the closure of the al-Sheeb border crossing, which a source in the Coordination Framework tells Channel8 is due to "shadow groups" consisting of 5-10 individuals conducting attacks on Iran's behalf that are difficult to trace.

🇮🇶❌🇾🇪 — A source in Iraq's Coordination Framework tells Channel8 that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered the closure of Ansarallah's office in Iraq and the deportation of all 7 Ansarallah figures present inside the country. There were more present in the war against ISIS and the Iran War, but most have reportedly left.

🇫🇷⚠️📈 French bond market STRESS is intensifying:

The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields has widened to 178 basis points, its highest level since late 2011, during the European debt crisis.

This comes as French 10-year yields surged as much as +13 basis points to 5.14%, their highest level since 2002.

The 10-year yield is now on track for a nearly +30-basis-point move in 1 week, its largest weekly increase since March 2025.

The selloff extends beyond bonds, with France’s CAC 40 falling more than -1% to near its lowest level since March, down over -11% since August.

Investors are retreating from French assets amid political gridlock, budget uncertainty, surging energy prices and renewed protests over the cost of living.

With next year’s presidential election approaching and few clear catalysts to restore confidence, French borrowing costs are likely to rise further and remain elevated.

Contagion risk in the eurozone is rising again.

🔗 Global Markets Investor