🗳 🇮🇱 📊 Updated Rosner/Chan13 Exit Poll

🔴Opposition Bloc: 52 (-1)
🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 50
🟢Arab Parties: 18 (+1)

Hung Knesset

📎 Israel Elects

🗳 🇮🇱 📊 Voter turnout in the Arab sector – 80%. Highest since 1965.

📎 Amit Segal

🇮🇱🗳📝 Neither bloc can form a government, and Netanyahu stays in office while everyone tries:

1) Netanyahu has no realistic route to 61. His bloc is the four religious-right parties plus Likud, and every party outside it ran on replacing him. To get there he would need defectors from Bennett or Lieberman, which both ruled out, or Ra’am, which Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would veto.

2) Eisenkot’s only path to a government runs through the Arab parties. Ra’am alone gets him to 58. He needs the Joint List as well, at least abstaining or giving outside support. That is the 2021 Bennett-Lapid model, but with a bigger dependency. Bennett and Lieberman have both been wary of relying on the Joint List.

3) The other way out is the Haredim. Shas plus UTJ is 14 seats, which would put Eisenkot at 66. But the draft is the issue that defines Lieberman, Bennett and the Democrats. A deal on exemptions would break his bloc from the inside.

4) The anti-Netanyahu parties plus the Arab parties come to about 69. That is enough to elect the Knesset speaker, control committees, and pass laws without forming a government. A bill barring an indicted MK from forming a government becomes possible.

5) Likud’s overperformance is mostly cannibalization. Likud gained, but its bloc is at 50. The votes came from inside the right, not from the center.

6) Stalemate favors Netanyahu. He stays caretaker PM through coalition talks and any repeat election. If nobody gets to 61, he governs by default.

The likeliest outcomes are a Bennett-Lapid-style government that depends on Arab support, or deadlock and another election with Netanyahu still in charge. The whole question is whether Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman will sit with Arab support. Exit polls here usually miss by a seat or two per party, so a small shift around the threshold could change the math.

🔗 Shaiel Ben-Ephraim

🗳 🇮🇱 📊 First Israeli 2026 Election Results (0.04% in)

🔵Likud: 27.02%
🔵RZP-Zehut: 16.84%
🔴Yashar: 16.61%
🔵Otzma: 8.38%
🔴Democrats: 8.08%
🔴Together: 6.5%
🔵Shas: 4.81%
🟣Reservists-Economic: 3.49%
🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 3.19%
🔵Winter: 2.92%
🔵UTJ: 1.01%

📎 Israel Elects

🗳 🇮🇱 📊 Filber/Chan14 Exit Poll - Updated

🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 62 (+2)
🔴Opposition Bloc: 40 (-3)
🟢Arab Parties: 18 (+1)

Netanyahu majority

📎 Israel Elects

🇮🇱⚔️🇮🇷 Israel Hayom reported that Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, planned a new round of decapitation strikes on Iranian leaders believing that this time, unlike the previous two times, would cause a chain reaction that would lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Citing sources familiar with Netanyahu's plan, the Israeli newspaper claimed the operation was going to be "limited" in nature and that it was supported by the Mossad director, Roman Gofman, recently appointed by Netanyahu, only to be vetoed by the IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, who, while not opposed in principle to the operation, was skeptical as the operation did not involve American forces and feared that Iranian retaliation would derail indefinitely the Knesset elections.

The Israeli cabinet, intelligence services and the IDF are all in agreement, according to Hayom, that they need to keep attacking Iran to keep it weak and unable to develop and expand its missile and nuclear program.

Netanyahu and Gofman were confident that a new round decapitation strikes against the IRGC would lead to a collapse of the Iranian military and cause revolts among the soldiery as the U.S. imposed naval blockade and new sanctions packages heightened inflationary pressure.

More interestingly, the newspaper mentions "limited Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Iraq". Mysterious warehouse explosions and fires have occurred inside Iraq and Syria with allegations that Iran has been supplying the PMF with air defenses to hopefully shoot down Israeli jets when they make incursions into Iraqi airspace, while the explosions in Syria are related to Israel trying to keep the Syrian Armed Forces weak and unable to fight back Israeli incursions into Syria.

🔗 https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/10/26/new-details-emerge-about-attack-netanyahu-planned-against-iran/