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Over the last few weeks, forced mobilisation of men into the Ukrainian military has been significantly stepped up in Kyiv, as Ukraine continues to face disastrous manpower shortages. I would like to shed some light on these changes, and the issues which come with them. All information presented here was provided to me by people currently in Ukraine, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

In Kyiv, an increase in mobilisation has been observed since August 9. Additional mobilisation checkpoints have been set up, and the TCC (territorial recruitment) is monitoring bus stops and subway stations. Military-aged men are trying to avoid public transport to decrease their odds of being mobilised and sent to prison-style military camps. Community-made online maps have surfaced which track where mobilisation checkpoints are erected, or where past mobilisation attempts have occurred. Within these maps, there is a database where other users can confirm or deny the existence of these locations, to help flush out any fake locations submitted.

Desertions are becoming very common. Training only takes place for around 6 weeks (sometimes even less), before being sent to the frontline. Most brigades don't have enough resources to prevent desertion, especially after the 6-week training period is over. This has resulted in a lot of training camps being converted into what one source describes as "real prisons", where it is much more difficult to escape from. This has led to an increase in the number of desertions occurring after the 6-week training period once they are deployed to the frontline.

In various different cities, there are companies which hire deserters for low-paying offline jobs (offline so they don't have to leave the house and risk being caught again). They provide an alternative to larger-private companies - the HRs of which are in contact with private security companies, whose bosses and top employees are former policemen. These security companies can provide a service of checking candidates in police databases, as they have friends in the police force. This means that deserters often can't apply for these higher-paying jobs, as they risk being caught and charged.

Nevertheless, sometimes these larger companies do hire deserters on "special conditions", as, due to the declining population, they don't have enough employees, and can deny knowing that the employee was a deserter.

It's estimated that the rate of overall forced mobilisation activity in Kyiv has doubled this year, although this does not necessarily mean the numbers of men actually being mobilised has doubled.

On the border with Poland, changes have also been observed, which one of my sources attributes to the recent naming of a Ukrainian special operations unit after the UPA (a Ukrainian militant group which collaborated with the Nazis in WW2 and committed massacres against Polish civilians), which led to Poland's highest honour award being stripped from Zelensky. The current waiting time at one of the checkpoints, without being rerouted, is 15-20 hours. They have started interviewing everyone on the Ukrainian side of the border.

After making this post about the increase in forced mobilisation in Kyiv, several more Ukrainians reached out to me with additional details, which I am allowed to share. So, I thought I would make a part two to this post to help emphasise the rapidly changing situation for residents of Kyiv.

In Kyiv, the TCC (territorial recruitment) has been very active in recent months, even in busier areas, which they previously largely avoided due to the risk of facing resistance from the public. More checkpoints are being installed at main streets, arterial roads, and bridges, which block all traffic going both ways, preventing people from moving from the eastern bank to the western bank. Mobile checkpoints are installed for short periods of time (between tens of minutes to several hours) before changing locations to throw off online maps tracking their activity. The domains of these online maps are also periodically blacklisted to support the TCC's operations.

When men try to escape checkpoints, the TCC sometimes throws spikes under their wheels, or begin car chases. Those who try to escape also have their driver's licences revoked and receive large fines. Police collaborate with the TCC, and require those stopped at checkpoints to scan a" Reserv+" QR code to find their mobilisation status in the TCC's database, if they refuse to provide driver's licences or insurance. If they have problems with military enrolment, police are required to forcibly bring them to their local TCC office. Sometimes they even break the windows of cars if the men refuse to get out. As a result, every day there are dozens of empty cars abandoned near checkpoints, until relatives or friends pick up the car or it gets towed.

Checkpoints are installed randomly, even violating road rules. Police assist with this. Some more dangerous areas are well known and avoided by the TCC. In some cases, all men on public transport are checked. If the police refuse to collaborate, they are often fired, lose deferment from military service, and risk being immediately mobilised themselves. Calls to emergency services regarding traffic violations by the TCC are typically ignored by law enforcement. TCC members also wear balaclavas to hide their faces, in order to avoid being identified.

Previously in Kyiv, men could usually safely go to out parks or play sports. Now the TCC uses these recreational areas to catch sportsmen or bicyclists in any area where they can quickly move in and out of by cars and minibuses. Essentially, every single public area carries a high risk for mobilisation-aged men, except for some busier public spaces such as central streets or shopping centres.

The number of bribes the TCC takes has decreased substantially to an insignificant number, as it becomes very heavily controlled by the SBU. You only sometimes would have a chance to leave a minibus by paying a bribe in cash, typically between $5,000 and $15,000 USD, but these cases are very rare and often just rumours.

Some people have attributed this increase in mobilisation activity to the new minister of defence Yevhenii Khmara. Similar changes have also been observed in other major Ukrainian cities. According to one source, citing the online maps of TCC activity, in Dnipro, eyewitnesses record an average of 120 events per day. In Zaporizhzhia City, which is smaller than Dnipro, an average of 150 per day are recorded. Odesa and other cities (especially in western Ukraine) have also witnessed similar increases. Although, its worth noting that not all recorded events result in mobilisation into the army, and a portion of mobilised personnel are able to escape training grounds and medical screening sessions. However, some TCC groups may mobilise multiple people at once.

Ukrainian authorities and special services are struggling to identify and shut down Telegram channels and online maps tracking TCC movement. Sometimes they are able to identify the owners and shut down the channels, but the main ones for each major city remain up.

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As for volunteer fighters, one source told me that he doesn't know anyone who would agree to go fight on the frontline for money. He specified that this is only among people he personally knows, and that there are some people, usually with debts, or those who need quick money (e.g. to save a loved one with a medical issue), who would volunteer. There was also a category of people who were afraid that they would be mobilised from the streets, so would instead register at the TCC office themselves after receiving their summons, and choose one of the branches of the army or units to be deployed to. However, this category has been largely exhausted, and is now a small percentage of those who are mobilised.

The source specifies that the largest percentage of mobilised people are taken from the street by mobile groups of the TCC, who kidnap them and sometimes fight off passer-by groups attempting to resist. Often, the TCC drive through the streets of villages, towns, and cities in buses (this is the most common method for smaller settlements). When they identify a potential victim, several men jump out to catch him. If the victim is able to escape, the remaining men in the bus immediately drive to intercept him. This source also mentions the possibility of using bribes, anywhere between $3,000 and $7,000 USD, which is a lot considering the average monthly salary in Ukraine is between $570 and $680 USD. Sometimes you can attempt to buy someone off once then reach the training centre, but by then they increase the amount of money required.

Those who do not have the money to bribe the TCC have the hope of escaping from training centres, or sometimes even as they are being transported there. In some cases, there is an order from the training centre to kill an escapee. The TCC then kidnaps them, takes them out somewhere, records them in their database as a deserter (as if they left the army, and no one knows anything about them), before killing them.

As for resistance to the TCC, this is increasing day by day, as hatred for them grows. One source estimated that 50% of mobilisation attempts result in interventions from bystanders, with most of these interventions involving force. Cars containing 1-2 members of the TCC sometimes patrol alongside police officers, with the police providing protection against members of the public who intervene. Not all mobilisation attempts are violent, as some men don't even try to resist. There are also some groups of teenagers and young adults who support (and may even actively help) the TCC, which include members and affiliates of Azov and other military units.

Note: while I can confirm the authenticity of the people sending me this information, I cannot independently confirm every single detail of their accounts. This post is not designed to be a 100% accurate depiction of current events, but is instead aimed at illustrating the general situation in Kyiv, and how it is changing.

— 🇺🇸/🇨🇦 NEW: Canada has suspended trade negotiations with the United States, citing unacceptable ‘last minute changes’ that were unfair and called into question the reliability of the deal

Prime Minister Carney has instructed Canada to impose reciprocal tariffs against the United States.

@Middle_East_Spectator