🇺🇸🚫🚀 Exclusive: US Patriot missile stocks in Europe are ‘beyond critical’ due to Iran war, officials say

The U.S. military is experiencing a “beyond critical” shortage of advanced missile interceptors in Europe largely driven by President Donald Trump’s war with Iran, a U.S. defense official in Europe and a NATO official told The Associated Press, raising concerns about vulnerabilities in NATO countries to a potential Russian attack.

The U.S. defense official said the most concerning shortfall involves Patriot missile interceptors, which can shoot down Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles. The NATO official confirmed the low inventories of Patriots among American and NATO forces in Europe. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.

In the event of a Russian ballistic missile assault on, for example, a military headquarters or power plant, NATO could be in a similar position to Patriot-starved Ukraine and be forced “to take punch after punch in the mouth,” the U.S. defense official said.

In Europe, the American military “definitely” does not have enough Patriots to stop any possible sustained ballistic missile attack and would have “very limited” capability to defend against a single ballistic missile strike or a stray Russian missile that goes off course, the U.S. official said.

European and NATO officials say Russia could be in a position to attack countries in the alliance by 2030. Patriot stockpiles are projected to rebound by then. In the meantime, Russia’s war in Ukraine could hinder its ability to carry out any missile attack on Europe as it would be a challenge for Moscow to fight an air war on two fronts.

The U.S. military in Europe also is grappling with critical shortages of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a medium-range ballistic missile designed to strike behind enemy lines, the two officials said. But the overall munitions picture in Europe is less dire than on air defenses alone because some European militaries have their own offensive missiles, such as the Taurus and Storm Shadow, which are both long-range air-launched bunker-busting missiles.

The dearth of Patriot interceptors in Europe would leave few alternatives for shooting down Russia’s more advanced ballistic missiles, which can be combined with swarms of inexpensive drones to overwhelm defenses, experts say.

Ukraine and some allies already use systems that can destroy slower-moving drones without expensive missiles. But ballistic missiles are a challenge because they dive steeply toward targets at more than five times the speed of sound, leaving little time to stop them.

One alternative could be France and Italy’s SAMP/T NG air defense system. France has promised to speed up the delivery of the system — the upgraded version of the current SAMP/T — to Ukraine, which the manufacturer says is better able to counter ballistics.

The new iteration, however, has not yet been battle tested and the current version of the SAMP/T has a smaller range than the Patriot.

While U.S. and European militaries have warships that can serve as mobile air defense, they may be too far from a target to protect it and could risk getting sunk.

🔗 https://apnews.com/article/patriot-missiles-iran-war-russia-ukraine-trump-09c7d8030a2e11fbd8ee3f7176b3f2d4

🇹🇼 Taiwanese Military Development: Taiwan’s military conducted its first live-fire FPV drone exercises on August 17, likely in an effort to integrate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

Taiwanese drone procurement efforts are facing legislative gridlock, which will make it more difficult for Taiwan to procure the necessary systems to conduct drone-enabled defense operations.

🔗 ISW

🇮🇱 Protecting offshore gas fields is driving a historic shift in Israel’s naval doctrine.

With Leviathan, Tamar, and Karish supplying ~70% of domestic electricity, Tel Aviv is expanding its Navy to counter growing multi-front threats.

The Israeli Navy recently conducted large-scale drills in the Mediterranean and Red Sea. Simulations focused explicitly on multi-frontal combat, fire operations, and defending critical offshore gas rigs against targeted missile and drone strikes.

To secure offshore assets, Israel is expanding investments in autonomous platforms like the 12-metre Seagull sea drone—capable of conducting 4-day anti-submarine, counter-mine, and deep-sea reconnaissance patrols without returning to shore.

Short of options for rapid shipbuilding, Israel is refitting older vessels like the 35-year-old INS Lahav specifically to guard gas platforms. Simultaneously, it took delivery of its most advanced sub, the $634M INS Drakon from Germany.

Israel’s gas security isn't just domestic. Egypt and Jordan rely heavily on imports from Israeli fields. Recent disruptions and hybrid attacks on Eastern Mediterranean energy assets demonstrate how vulnerable regional grid stability remains.

Turning Israel from a energy-dependent state into a regional gas powerhouse has been a core pillar of Likud strategy for two decades. Securing these fields against regional proxies is now a top political and economic priority for Tel Aviv.

🔗 Francesco Sassi

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 Iran's Araghchi says US pressure won't work after Qatar talks in Tehran

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said diplomacy could be revived only if the United States accepted that pressure did not work, after talks with Qatar's prime minister in Tehran, in a post on X on August 27.

The comment casts Iran's terms for any return to negotiations in stark form as the war with the United States and Israel nears its sixth month, with Qatar among the mediators pressing both sides back towards talks that collapsed after a June memorandum of understanding. The message also comes as Iranian officials have cautiously welcomed a move to away from war with the US as Washington continues to add further constraints on Iran's economy.

Araghchi said he had held what he called creative discussions with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and that putting diplomacy back on track was not impossible.

He said it hinged on Washington building trust, speaking respectfully, acknowledging Iran's rights and upholding its commitments.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-araghchi-says-us-pressure-won-t-work-after-qatar-talks-in-tehran-464221/

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran has increased its demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: it now demands a total IDF withdrawal from Gaza in order for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.

Mohsen Rezaei, the new Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, prepared a list of conditions to convey to Washington and was for now permitting limited, temporary passage of ships through the middle section of the strait, with future traffic dependent on progress towards an understanding with Washington.

"He must prove his seriousness in implementing the commitments," Rezaei said of the US position, adding that a "deep valley of mistrust" separated the two sides.

He said the strait could not be separated from the overall regional confrontation and that Washington had to demonstrate good faith before any new trust could form.

Among the conditions Iran raises in any understanding with the United States, Rezaei listed a halt to fighting across West Asia, especially in Lebanon, and an Israeli withdrawal from areas of Lebanese territory it had taken.

The demand to remove the IDF from Lebanese territory was agreed to by the U.S. back in June when the two countries signed the MoU, the U.S. refused to keep its side of the bargain and didn't pressure Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, being one of the causes which led to the collapse of the MoU.

Now, in addition to the IDF withdrawing from Lebanon, Iran demands that the IDF withdraw from Gaza, which had not been included in the MoU. Mohsen Rezaei also demanded that Israel stops its attacks on Syria and return all territories it occupied.

Rezaei also reissued his threat to resume missile attacks on Israel if the IAF bombs Beirut or its suburbs.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/iran-ties-full-reopening-of-strait-of-hormuz-to-us-halting-regional-wars-rezaei-says-464203/

🇸🇪🇫🇮⚔️🇷🇺 Something highly significant is unfolding on NATO's eastern flank, particularly among the Nordic countries.

According to SVT, Sweden has approved the provision of direct military support to Finland following a formal request from the Helsinki government.

Several JAS Gripen fighter jets and military vessels will assist Finland in patrolling its border with Russia to identify potential threats.

This move will significantly enhance the alliance's reconnaissance capabilities and readiness to respond to potential incursions by Russian aircraft or drones.

It also signals that Finland is taking the potential Russian threat very seriously, given that the Finnish armed forces are already among the largest in Europe.

Furthermore, by 2030, the Finnish Air Force is set to operate one of Europe's largest fleets of F-35 fighter jets, totaling 64 aircraft, this request for Swedish support indicates that Finland does not wish to wait that long, as it believes the Russian threat may be more imminent than anticipated.

🔗 MoloMonitor

🇪🇸❌❌ Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares blames Elon Musk and “Russian disinformation networks” for the anger driving Ceuta residents to confront and expel illegal migrants.

🔗 Europa.com (@europa)

🇫🇷🗳 French Ecologists are thinking of backing Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the 2027 Presidential Elections.

Jean Luc-Mélenchon’s strong start to his presidential campaign has pushed key figures from the French Greens to publicly discuss whether the best way to advance their agenda is to sit out next year’s election and instead back the increasingly popular leftist.

Were the Greens to throw their weight behind Mélenchon — who wants to pull France out of NATO and views the European Union as a vehicle for unbridled German-style capitalism — it would solidify his position as the race’s dominant left-leaning candidate and increase his chances at advancing to the contest’s second round, where he’d likely face far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen.

The French presidential election goes to a two-candidate runoff round if no one receives an outright majority in the first round of voting, and the second spot often comes down to the wire. In France’s last two presidential elections, Mélenchon missed the runoff by less than 2 percent of votes.

Ecologist candidate, Marine Tondelier, polls at 3-4% of the vote which would be enough to propel Mélenchon ahead of the other centrist candidates.

Rumblings of a Mélenchon-Green alliance began over the weekend when influential Greens attended the annual conference for his party, France Unbowed. Green presidential candidate Marine Tondelier did little to tamp down the speculation at a press conference Wednesday when asked about Mélenchon and center-left contender and MEP Raphaël Glucksmann’s platforms.

“Neither Jean-Luc Mélenchon nor Raphaël Glucksmann are the worst enemies of ecology in France,” Tondelier said. “It’s the power of the ecologists to see that the debate on the left is now focusing on who is the biggest environmentalist.”

Were Tondelier to stay in the race and split the left-wing vote, it could mean France has a third consecutive presidential election without a left-leaning option in the second round. A few voices from the Green party’s centrist wing are looking toward Glucksmann, but the loudest calls have been in favor of partnering with France Unbowed.

The Greens’ top lawmaker Cyrielle Châtelain is among those leading the charge in favor of partnering with Mélenchon.

Châtelain attended France Unbowed’s summer event along with seven other party officials, where she told reporters that “there is common ground” between the Greens and Mélenchon. She even appeared before cameras flashing a wide grin beside Mélenchon — a strong political signal given her key role as the party’s top lawmaker in the National Assembly.

🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/far-left-melenchon-courts-greens-as-presidential-bid-gains-steam/