🇳🇪 Images shared by witnesses (Kanazi, West of the capital) indicate that Niamey is on lockdown and that entry and exit are not permitted.

Vehicles are being held up while they wait for the situation in the capital to develop.

🔗 Casus Belli (@casusbellii)

🇳🇪 From one source, what is happening in Niger is an attempt at a violent coup d’état, not a rebellion limited to the demands of desperate soldiers.

It appears that the junta has lost control over part of the army
Many units are on their way to the capital, which will take time, and the final outcome could change before they arrive

General Tiani, chairman of the military council, and a group of presidential guards loyal to him are barricaded inside the presidential palace and are attempting to repel the coup plotters

The coup plotters control most of the strategic axis and sites in the capital, including the airport.

Other reports suggest that they are negotiating with the Russians (i assume they want them to not try to protect the power in place) and are preparing to launch a major offensive on the presidential palace if the general refuses to surrender.

The Nigerien government has lost control over a significant portion of the army

Both sides (loyalists and mutineers) are contacting various units to try to get them to join their side by asking them to return to the capital

One notable detail: National Gendarmerie does not seem to be responding and is not leaving its barracks for a reason that remains unknown at this time

It’s somewhat of a race against time to rally the bulk of the troops to one side or the other, even though the situation could be resolved before the units arrive in the capital

🔗 Casus Belli

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Missile War Monitor: petrol queues in Russia, purchase limits in Ukraine's supermarkets

Petrol was on sale at fewer than a third of Russian filling stations this month, and the Ukrainian supermarket chain ATB began capping purchases on August 28 due to Russian drone attacks.

Ukraine has launched a total of 21 strikes against Russia’s oil refineries in August. Russia has retaliated by trying to systematically destroy Ukraine’s retail infrastructure, which has started to empty the shelves. The largest store operators announced on August 28 they are freezing pay and cancelling bonuses.

The 48 hours to Saturday morning Ukraine hit a Magnit hypermarket outside Moscow, a first for the chain, along with three retail and e-commerce warehouses in Rostov region.

Russia cut power to more than 300,000 people in Nikolaev, burned 125 tonnes of grain on lorries outside Izmail, and destroyed a Fozzy hypermarket at Vishnnyovoe. As this series has tracked since the campaign against the civilian economy began, the conflict has moved from a war of attrition to a total war after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine it had opened a “Pandora’s box” by targeting Russian retail assets.

On August 28 drones hit the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, about 700 km from Ukrainian territory, where the general staff confirmed a fire and said the extent of damage was still being assessed. It was the eighth strike on that plant this year. Perm lost about 74% of its capacity to a strike on August 21, its second this year; NORSI at Nizhny Novgorod went down on August 26; and with Volgograd already offline every major Lukoil refinery in Russia stopped processing.

In Ukraine, From August 28 ATB began limiting customers to six units or six kilogrammes of a given product per receipt, nationwide and online, on eggs, canned fish and meat, oils, vinegar, starch, grains, pasta, cereals, salt, baking soda, sugar and dry groceries. This is not rationing and should not be reported as such. ATB's own explanation is that individual customers were buying in bulk to resell, stripping shelves locally, on top of the damage to its warehouses. Its representative said flatly that "there is no shortage of products in the stores". Silpo has introduced no comparable limits and has told customers not to panic.

Supermarket chain the Fozzy Group, which runs Silpo, Fora, Fozzy and Thrash!, said on August 28 that ten of its distribution centres had been damaged in August alone, that a Silpo supermarket in Krivoy Rog had been destroyed, and that it was freezing hiring, cancelling the autumn salary review and Q3 and Q4 bonuses, and suspending voluntary medical insurance from October 1.

Fozzy's own hypermarket and production facilities at Vishnyovoe, on the western edge of Kyiv, were hit on August 28. The store halted operations with the scale of damage still being assessed and nobody was hurt. It was part of a wider night: Kiev regional head Tymur Tkachenko counted 14 warehouse premises damaged across five districts, along with 16 private houses, three apartment blocks and 16 vehicles. One warehouse held the stock of the bookshop Readeat and the publisher Vivat, which suspended shipments.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/missile-war-monitor-petrol-queues-in-russia-purchase-limits-in-ukraine-s-supermarkets-464347/

🇩🇿🇳🇪 Algeria is the first country to condemn the coup d'etat attempt against the military junta of Abdourahamane Tiani.

@CIG_telegram

🇳🇪 It is past 3:30 p.m. in Niamey, and the situation remains uncertain.

According to my sources, the airport is still under the control of the mutineers.

I understand that MISIN (the Italian troops deployed at Base 101) is safe and sound, although no official statement has been made regarding them.

Russian mercenaries are reportedly being held in custody (or simply locked up—it’s unclear) by the mutineers who still control Base 101 (next to the Diori-Hamane Airport)

Negotiations between the Russians and the mutineers are reportedly underway regarding their situation, but also to keep them out of the intra-military tensions and prevent them from interfering in the coup.

There is talk of about ten prisoners; the Russian presence in Niger numbers a few hundred people.

The units currently deployed are still heading toward Niamey; the situation should become clearer in the coming hours.

🔗 Casus Belli

🛢 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 The numbers behind the US-Venezuela oil deal:

Venezuela has now confirmed that the agreement covers 65 billion barrels of oil across 17 fields, with the US receiving "majority control."

At current WTI crude oil prices of ~$83/barrel, those reserves have a gross market value of ~$5.4 trillion.

Reports indicate the deal includes 100-year rights to develop the fields, while the US will receive 55% effective output, along with an ownership stake and rights to purchase oil at cost.

At 55%, that would correspond to ~35.8 billion barrels of effective output.

At today’s oil prices, that amount of crude alone has a gross market value of ~$3 trillion.

That said, Venezuela primarily produces heavy, sour crude, which typically trades at a meaningful discount to benchmark oil prices and requires more expensive production, blending, and refining.

Even assuming an illustrative $25-$35 of net economic value per barrel after discounts and development/operating costs, ~35.8 billion barrels could represent up to ~$1.25 trillion of cumulative economic value over the life of the fields.

This includes a $100 billion investment to develop these fields, while Venezuela estimates the projects will generate $209 billion in tax revenue for the country.

This is one of the biggest energy deals in history.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🛢 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 The oil deal with Venezuela does not take US proved reserves from 46 billion barrels to 111 billion.

Majority control of 17 fields does not give America 7.1% of the world's oil, does not put it level with the UAE, does not add supply in 2026, and does not replace a barrel lost at Hormuz.

EIA proved reserves are volumes recoverable with reasonable certainty from known reservoirs inside the United States. At year-end 2024 that was about 46 billion barrels of crude oil and lease condensate.

A lease, a 55% offtake right, or "majority control" of Venezuelan acreage does not move oil across a border on the ledger. Venezuela books it, and already does. Those barrels sit inside its 303 billion.

Which makes the 7.1% figure double counting. Venezuela's reserves are already inside the 1.57 trillion world total. Putting 65 billion in the US column counts the same oil twice.

Caracas also did not say proved reserves. It said 17 fields with a "proven potential" of 65 billion barrels, which is not a classification that exists under SEC or SPE-PRMS rules. The number has moved accordingly: Axios put a similar field list at over 90 billion, a US official said 63. There is no published agreement, no named operator and no audited reserve report behind any of them.

The 17 fields have not been named either. Reuters, which reviewed the list under negotiation, described a mix of undeveloped Orinoco acreage and mature Lake Maracaibo blocks. Orinoco crude is 8–10° API, high sulfur, high metals. It needs diluent, steam and upgraders, plus pipelines and terminals that need billions in repairs first. Venezuela produces roughly 1.1–1.2 million b/d today.

The 100-year term does not exist in Venezuelan law. The reformed hydrocarbons law caps mixed companies at 25 years plus a single 15-year extension.

These are not the barrels Hormuz carries. The strait moves Murban, Arab Light, Basrah and Kuwait Export, light to medium grades that refineries across Asia and Europe are built to run. Extra-heavy Venezuelan sour is coking feedstock. It competes with Maya and Canadian heavy on the US Gulf Coast. It does not replace a lost Gulf barrel in Ningbo or Rotterdam.

Access to future barrels, if the contract holds and the fields get built, is a long-cycle supply story. It is a contract, not a reserve. Only one of those appears on the EIA ledger.

📎 KobeissiLetter