📝 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Venezuela pumps about 1 million b/d. Even if these 17 fields alone reached 2 million b/d, twice the whole country’s output today and 58% of its 1997 peak, the US share of 1.1 million b/d would take 89 years to lift 35.8 billion barrels.
$1.25 trillion over 89 years is $14 billion a year. Discounted at 10%, generous for a sovereign in default since 2017 that nationalized Exxon’s and Conoco’s Orinoco projects in 2007, that stream is worth about $140 billion today. Under 3% of the headline, before the $100 billion of capex that gets spent first. Double the production assumption and you reach 5%.
Big face value, 89-year duration, a counterparty with a default history, an interim government’s signature. Great strategic deal for the SPR. As an asset, it is a distressed claim with a century-long workout, not a $5 trillion windfall.
📝 Carolina Lion: "They still can only export about 1.25 million barrels per day. You need to expand and modernize the infrastructure to do more than that."
📎 Cristiano Augusto Tofani
$1.25 trillion over 89 years is $14 billion a year. Discounted at 10%, generous for a sovereign in default since 2017 that nationalized Exxon’s and Conoco’s Orinoco projects in 2007, that stream is worth about $140 billion today. Under 3% of the headline, before the $100 billion of capex that gets spent first. Double the production assumption and you reach 5%.
Big face value, 89-year duration, a counterparty with a default history, an interim government’s signature. Great strategic deal for the SPR. As an asset, it is a distressed claim with a century-long workout, not a $5 trillion windfall.
📝 Carolina Lion: "They still can only export about 1.25 million barrels per day. You need to expand and modernize the infrastructure to do more than that."
📎 Cristiano Augusto Tofani
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
📝 🛢 🇻🇪 Reserves ≠ Production
Venezuela already sat on 303 billion barrels, the largest proven reserves on earth, and pumped 1.12 million b/d in July, about 1% of world supply and one third of its 1997 peak.
The 65 billion barrels are 21% of reserves Venezuela had already booked. Booking is not producing. Orinoco crude is extra heavy, under 10 API, and needs upgraders or imported diluent before it can even move; the existing upgraders have run far below nameplate for years.
Guyana, the fastest large development in modern history, took four years from discovery to first oil and about ten to reach 0.9 million b/d, in light offshore crude with one operator and a stable contract. Chevron, the biggest operator actually on the ground in Venezuela, is at 280,000 b/d and targets up to 50% more by end-2028. Roughly 140,000 b/d in two years.
📎 Cristiano Augusto Tofani
Venezuela already sat on 303 billion barrels, the largest proven reserves on earth, and pumped 1.12 million b/d in July, about 1% of world supply and one third of its 1997 peak.
The 65 billion barrels are 21% of reserves Venezuela had already booked. Booking is not producing. Orinoco crude is extra heavy, under 10 API, and needs upgraders or imported diluent before it can even move; the existing upgraders have run far below nameplate for years.
Guyana, the fastest large development in modern history, took four years from discovery to first oil and about ten to reach 0.9 million b/d, in light offshore crude with one operator and a stable contract. Chevron, the biggest operator actually on the ground in Venezuela, is at 280,000 b/d and targets up to 50% more by end-2028. Roughly 140,000 b/d in two years.
📎 Cristiano Augusto Tofani
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
📝 🛢 🇻🇪 Reserves ≠ Production Venezuela already sat on 303 billion barrels, the largest proven reserves on earth, and pumped 1.12 million b/d in July, about 1% of world supply and one third of its 1997 peak. The 65 billion barrels are 21% of reserves Venezuela…
📝 🛢 🇺🇸 For the “65 billion barrels” to be developed, Trump will have to rely heavily on U.S. and international oil companies, particularly the majors.
According to Rystad Energy, Venezuela would require at least $183 billion in investment to raise oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2040.
But international oil companies cannot simply be compelled to invest in Venezuela. Capital will flow to projects offering the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Oil frontiers such as Guyana, Brazil and Namibia generally offer significantly lower project breakevens, making them potentially more attractive destinations for major oil companies that ultimately have to justify their investment decisions to shareholders.
📎 OilPrice.com
According to Rystad Energy, Venezuela would require at least $183 billion in investment to raise oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2040.
But international oil companies cannot simply be compelled to invest in Venezuela. Capital will flow to projects offering the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Oil frontiers such as Guyana, Brazil and Namibia generally offer significantly lower project breakevens, making them potentially more attractive destinations for major oil companies that ultimately have to justify their investment decisions to shareholders.
📎 OilPrice.com
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Majority control of 17 fields does not give America 7.1% of the world's oil, does not put it level with the UAE, does not add supply in 2026, and does not replace a barrel lost at Hormuz.
EIA proved reserves are volumes recoverable with reasonable certainty from known reservoirs inside the United States. At year-end 2024 that was about 46 billion barrels of crude oil and lease condensate.
A lease, a 55% offtake right, or "majority control" of Venezuelan acreage does not move oil across a border on the ledger. Venezuela books it, and already does. Those barrels sit inside its 303 billion.
Which makes the 7.1% figure double counting. Venezuela's reserves are already inside the 1.57 trillion world total. Putting 65 billion in the US column counts the same oil twice.
Caracas also did not say proved reserves. It said 17 fields with a "proven potential" of 65 billion barrels, which is not a classification that exists under SEC or SPE-PRMS rules. The number has moved accordingly: Axios put a similar field list at over 90 billion, a US official said 63. There is no published agreement, no named operator and no audited reserve report behind any of them.
The 17 fields have not been named either. Reuters, which reviewed the list under negotiation, described a mix of undeveloped Orinoco acreage and mature Lake Maracaibo blocks. Orinoco crude is 8–10° API, high sulfur, high metals. It needs diluent, steam and upgraders, plus pipelines and terminals that need billions in repairs first. Venezuela produces roughly 1.1–1.2 million b/d today.
The 100-year term does not exist in Venezuelan law. The reformed hydrocarbons law caps mixed companies at 25 years plus a single 15-year extension.
These are not the barrels Hormuz carries. The strait moves Murban, Arab Light, Basrah and Kuwait Export, light to medium grades that refineries across Asia and Europe are built to run. Extra-heavy Venezuelan sour is coking feedstock. It competes with Maya and Canadian heavy on the US Gulf Coast. It does not replace a lost Gulf barrel in Ningbo or Rotterdam.
Access to future barrels, if the contract holds and the fields get built, is a long-cycle supply story. It is a contract, not a reserve. Only one of those appears on the EIA ledger.
📎 KobeissiLetter
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The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter)
The oil deal with Venezuela does not take US proved reserves from 46 billion barrels to 111 billion.
Majority control of 17 fields does not give America 7.1% of the world's oil, does not put it level with the UAE, does not add supply in 2026, and does not…
Majority control of 17 fields does not give America 7.1% of the world's oil, does not put it level with the UAE, does not add supply in 2026, and does not…
✈️ 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 Milo Yiannopoulos has been deported to the UK, one day after his arrest by ICE officials at the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/milo-yiannopoulos-deported-uk-rcna595025
📎 AF Post
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/milo-yiannopoulos-deported-uk-rcna595025
📎 AF Post
🇮🇱 ❌️ 🇺🇸 An NBC News team was attacked and beaten by Israeli settlers wielding clubs in the West Bank.
Four members of an NBC team were interviewing Aida Ahmed Abdullah and her family in the Palestinian town of Jalud, near Nablus. Abdullah said they had been driven out of their home by Israeli settlers, and the team was walking down the hill toward the house.
📎 NBC
Four members of an NBC team were interviewing Aida Ahmed Abdullah and her family in the Palestinian town of Jalud, near Nablus. Abdullah said they had been driven out of their home by Israeli settlers, and the team was walking down the hill toward the house.
📎 NBC
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
It is also clear that these are indeed young soldiers, supporting the idea of a movement launched by young officers.
The footage was taken in broad daylight, so I assume this happened several hours ago.
It appears that the situation is not yet over and that units of mutinous special forces are still heading toward Niamey or may even be on the verge of arriving there.
I assume negotiations will begin to try to dissuade them from continuing the mutiny.
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🌾 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Wheat prices are surging.
US wheat futures jumped +6.4% on Wednesday and +1.3% on Thursday, to $7.58 per bushel, the highest level since July 2023.
Wheat prices have risen +19% so far this month, and are up +50% since the start of 2026.
This comes amid growing concerns about further disruptions to grain-export ports and terminals along Ukraine's and Russia's Black Sea coast.
Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports, while also supplying significant amounts of global barley, corn, and sunflower oil exports.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's agricultural exports in the 2026-27 season are now expected to be 29.6 million tons, or -54% lower than the previous estimate of 64.4 million tons, according to its agriculture ministry.
Another wave of food inflation may be on its way.
📎 KobeissiLetter
US wheat futures jumped +6.4% on Wednesday and +1.3% on Thursday, to $7.58 per bushel, the highest level since July 2023.
Wheat prices have risen +19% so far this month, and are up +50% since the start of 2026.
This comes amid growing concerns about further disruptions to grain-export ports and terminals along Ukraine's and Russia's Black Sea coast.
Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports, while also supplying significant amounts of global barley, corn, and sunflower oil exports.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's agricultural exports in the 2026-27 season are now expected to be 29.6 million tons, or -54% lower than the previous estimate of 64.4 million tons, according to its agriculture ministry.
Another wave of food inflation may be on its way.
📎 KobeissiLetter
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
📝 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 AMK Mapping on X: While everyone still focuses on the current limited Ukrainian drone strikes, today marks Day 50 of Russia’s large-scale missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.
Hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones have been used in these unprecedented attacks, hitting all 6 working Ukrainian ports, dozens of commercial vessels, energy infrastructure powering these ports, countless warehouses and other storage facilities, Ukrainian naval assets, and much more. Every single day for the last 50 days has witnessed attacks on port infrastructure to some extent.
This has crippled Ukrainian maritime export capabilities, with most shipping companies no longer willing to take the risk to sail to Odesa Oblast. Meanwhile, Russia’s western ports are largely functional again, as Ukraine’s “40 day operation” has long petered out.
It’s truly incredible how little coverage this Russian strike campaign has gotten, considering the massive scale of these attacks. And they show no signs of stopping yet.
📎 AMK Mapping
Hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones have been used in these unprecedented attacks, hitting all 6 working Ukrainian ports, dozens of commercial vessels, energy infrastructure powering these ports, countless warehouses and other storage facilities, Ukrainian naval assets, and much more. Every single day for the last 50 days has witnessed attacks on port infrastructure to some extent.
This has crippled Ukrainian maritime export capabilities, with most shipping companies no longer willing to take the risk to sail to Odesa Oblast. Meanwhile, Russia’s western ports are largely functional again, as Ukraine’s “40 day operation” has long petered out.
It’s truly incredible how little coverage this Russian strike campaign has gotten, considering the massive scale of these attacks. And they show no signs of stopping yet.
📎 AMK Mapping
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AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_)
While everyone still focuses on the current limited Ukrainian drone strikes, today marks Day 50 of Russia’s large-scale missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.
Hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones…
Hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones…
📝 Mark Taylor: "You know how they had to lobotomize AI to keep it from saying taboo things? They did the same to you when you were growing
up."
📝 Flo Crivello: "Most models significantly shift to the right politically if you turn reasoning on"
https://aipolcom.net/
📎 Crémieux
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
Yair was reportedly a target of an alleged Iranian assassination plot while living in Florida in December 2025.
The Shin Bet temporarily reassigned agents protecting President Isaac Herzog, who was in New York at the time, and sent them to Miami to assist in bringing Yair Netanyahu back to Israel.
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🇩🇪 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Germany plans to blame Russia for Leipzig attack as tensions with Putin escalate
Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to level new sanctions at Russian entities, in parallel with punishing new EU measures.
The German government's plan is set to involve direct measures against Russian entities, while the EU moves forward with punishing new sanctions that are being prepared in parallel in Brussels, three officials familiar with the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, told POLITICO and WELT AM SONNTAG.
The announcement is scheduled for early next week, coinciding with an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Ireland on Tuesday — but could also be made earlier depending on Merz, said two of the officials.
One of the officials familiar with the matter said that in response to the Leipzig drone incident, it was no longer enough to expel individual Russian diplomats or close the Russian House in Berlin. Tougher measures were needed, such as intensified sanctions or even more extensive arms deliveries to Ukraine. The three officials declined to provide further details on which precise measures Merz plans to announce.
The foiled attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport has already been strongly linked to Russia by media investigations. According to a report by German media outlets, the drone, which had been rigged with explosives, was intended to strike a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, which is also used to transport military equipment. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. intelligence assessments directly linked Russia to the drone.
https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-berlin-sanctions-russia-vladimir-putin-leipzig-attach-ascalate/
Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to level new sanctions at Russian entities, in parallel with punishing new EU measures.
The German government's plan is set to involve direct measures against Russian entities, while the EU moves forward with punishing new sanctions that are being prepared in parallel in Brussels, three officials familiar with the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, told POLITICO and WELT AM SONNTAG.
The announcement is scheduled for early next week, coinciding with an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Ireland on Tuesday — but could also be made earlier depending on Merz, said two of the officials.
One of the officials familiar with the matter said that in response to the Leipzig drone incident, it was no longer enough to expel individual Russian diplomats or close the Russian House in Berlin. Tougher measures were needed, such as intensified sanctions or even more extensive arms deliveries to Ukraine. The three officials declined to provide further details on which precise measures Merz plans to announce.
The foiled attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport has already been strongly linked to Russia by media investigations. According to a report by German media outlets, the drone, which had been rigged with explosives, was intended to strike a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, which is also used to transport military equipment. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. intelligence assessments directly linked Russia to the drone.
https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-berlin-sanctions-russia-vladimir-putin-leipzig-attach-ascalate/
POLITICO
Germany plans to blame Russia for Leipzig attack as tensions with Putin escalate – POLITICO
Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to level new sanctions at Russian entities, in parallel with punishing new EU measures.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/establishing-the-united-states-space-academy/
📎 CBS
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇬🇧🇨🇦⚡- Restore Britain Spokesman Charlie Downes was detained by the Canadian Border Service Agency for three hours yesterday while en route to a political conference.
While being interrogated, Downes was asked questions about Restore Britain, such as where their funding comes from, official policy concerning deportations, and whether he had ever joined a militia group and advocated for the overthrow of any governments.
While being interrogated, Downes was asked questions about Restore Britain, such as where their funding comes from, official policy concerning deportations, and whether he had ever joined a militia group and advocated for the overthrow of any governments.
Media is too big
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"They have essentially unlimited fuel. You don't have to fill up the tanks."
First sitting president to make this call.
📝 NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman: "Yes! America will get underway on nuclear power in space in 2028"
📎 Sean Hannity
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SR-1 Freedom will use a 20-kW nuclear reactor to power electric thrusters, carrying three Ingenuity-derived SkyFall helicopters to Mars to search for subsurface water and scout potential exploration zones.
NASA plans to activate the reactor within 48 hours of escaping Earth, demonstrating nuclear propulsion in deep space after decades of development.
If successful, SR-1 will pave the way for nuclear-powered Moon bases, crewed Mars missions and spacecraft capable of operating far beyond where solar power is practical.
https://www.outerspacetoday.com/article/nasa-glenn-developing-nuclear-fission-powered-interplanetary-spacecraft
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Outer Space Today
NASA Glenn Advances SR-1 Freedom, Billed as First Nuclear Fission-Powered Interplanetary Spacecraft
NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland is playing a key role in developing Space Reactor-1 Freedom, described as the first nuclear fission-powered interplanetary spacecraft. The vehicle is designed to travel to Mars and deliver a payload of three helicopters…
By the end of 2027, Starbase Pad 1, LC-39A and SLC-37A are expected online.
Many companies are still building rockets. But without launch pads, rockets just wait,and pads take years to build.
SpaceX’s real competitor is now itself:
Reusable Starship.
Orbital compute.
No one else is close.
📝 Zero G Talent: "The 'pad bottleneck' is the most underestimated part of the space race. Everyone wants to design the rocket, but the real win is the civil and industrial engineering required to build 15 pads that don't melt. That's a massive shift in the talent war."
📎 Lunar Citizen
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Elon says the site gets more than a dozen towers... its basically a conveyor belt.
Right now rockets are events, but this plan treats them like departures.
Construction is slated for 2027, with the first flight targeted around 2029.
📎 Mario Nawfal
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