🔽 🇺🇸 🖥 $490 billion wiped out from U.S. stocks in just 25 minutes as the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps and Warsh warned inflation is still elevated.

📎 Bull Theory

🇻🇪 🇺🇸 📈 Venezuelan crude is flowing into the US at the highest rate since mid-2017, with imports surging to nearly 800,000 barrels a day last week.

📎 Javier Blis

📢 🇺🇸 🏦 Trump says the Fed should have cut interest rates to 1% or lower and says the US is “carrying” countries with which it runs trade deficits.

📎 KobeissiLetter

📝 🇺🇸 💵 KobeissiLetter on X: Today is another reminder of just how fast things can change.

Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 rate cuts in 2026 and we had $60 oil prices.

Today, a new Fed rate hike cycle has begun, oil prices are above $100, and diesel prices are at record highs.

The market and the Fed are in agreement, lower rates are not coming as long as the current energy crisis continues.

There simply is no scenario where rate cuts are warranted with $100+ oil prices and 3.5%+ inflation, aside from an economic depression.

Luckily, we are also in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in history, and the AI boom continues to provide substantial support for the S&P 500.

Without the AI Revolution, markets would be in a much darker position right now.

On the flip side, a resolution to the current energy crisis opens for the S&P 500 to rise well above 8,000.

For now, a long and bumpy road appears to be ahead as the Fed continues its 60-straight-month battle against inflation.

"Higher for longer" has returned.

📎 KobeissiLetter

📝 🇺🇸 🏦 KobeissiLetter on X: The Fed made a very clear statement today.

Not only did they hike interest rates, but it was a 12-0 unanimous decision.

This marks the first unanimous Fed decision since May 2025, amid calls from President Trump to cut rates.

And, the Fed concluded their policy statement by saying, "The Committee will deliver price stability," making it clear that inflation is their top priority.

The question now becomes: How does President Trump respond?

12 days ago, President Trump said he would "stop trading" with 50+ US trade partners if the Fed does not cut rates.

Today, the Fed not only avoided cutting rates, they hiked them.

Clearly, the divide between the White House and the Fed is widening, even with Jerome Powell out.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (9/16/2026):

1. Fed hikes interest rates by 25 bps for first time since July 2023

2. The decision was made in a 12-0 unanimous vote

3. Fed says the decision will support a "timelier" return to 2% inflation

4. Median Fed forecast shows one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2026

5. Fed says job gains are strong and the unemployment rate has "changed little"

6. "The Committee will deliver price stability," the Fed's statement says



SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR WARSH'S STATEMENT (9/16/26):

1. Warsh says the decision to hike rates comes at a time when the economy is "strengthening"

2. Warsh says he is "hard-pressed to call financial conditions restrictive"

3. The view that conditions are not restrictive was "widely shared by the FOMC"

4. Warsh says the predominant focus of the Fed is on price stability

5. Warsh says he did not submit a dot for the Fed's dot-plot

6. The Fed "must be confident that inflation is moving to our 2% objective"

The Fed is highly committed to obtaining 2% inflation.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🗳 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 The House has passed the bipartisan Russian sanctions bill 262-159. It now heads to the White House.

📝 Tabz: The bill targets Russia’s shadow fleet with sanctions, authorizes tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest purchasers of Russian energy products, and extends the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996, alongside other measures targeting Russia and Iran.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/5334

📎 OSINTtechnical

🌕 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The Pentagon must prepare for battles around the moon: Joint Chiefs chair

Days after orbital weapons were revealed, Gen. Dan Caine ups the scope of the military’s desired reach.

“Our task, my friends, is to adapt right now, so the Joint Force is prepared to fight, endure, and win, in global contested environments, from the seabed to cislunar space,” Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine told airmen, guardians, and industry figures during his keynote address at the Air, Space, and Cyber Conference.

Caine pointed to recent comments made about orbital weapons by the Air Force secretary and the Space Force’s chief of space operations. Top space force officials have been hesitant to provide more details on how they would operate in that domain and how they’d responsibly use space weapons in future conflicts.

While top Space Force officials have provided few details about how U.S. forces would fight between the Earth and its moon, they have been vocal about adding sensors and capabilities to watch adversary movements there. Aaron Brynildson, a space law professor at the University of Mississippi said it’s understandable why the military would want to increase awareness within that region.

“There’s a fear that recent Chinese activity on the moon and in cislunar space might outpace the United States,” Brynildson said. “China has a relay satellite in cislunar space and is performing robotic missions on the far side of the moon.”

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which the U.S. signed, outlaws certain military behaviors on the Moon and states that it shall be used “exclusively for peaceful purposes.”

“Our adversaries, our potential adversaries, such as the PRC, are actively pursuing activities in the cislunar parts of space. So that's sort of the expansion, if you will, of I would say the end zone, if you will, in the football game,” he said.

“The United States Space Force will continue to execute safe and responsible space operations in all regions of space and in all orbits,” he said.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2026/09/pentagon-battles-moon-joint-chiefs-chairman/416021/?oref=d1-category-lander-top-story

🇸🇦🇾🇪⚡️ — Saudi Arabia is running low on missile interceptors as its conflict with Yemen’s Houthis (Ansarallah) continues, prompting Riyadh to seek additional air defense assistance from regional and Western allies, AP reports.

Saudi Arabia has asked France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt to deploy air-defense support to help protect the kingdom.

The requests come as Saudi Arabia’s main military supplier, the U.S., is also facing depleted interceptor stocks after six months of war with Iran.

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Situation on the Krasny Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast:

Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive north of Lyman, and have made additional tactically important advances, crossing into LuGansk Oblast and coming close to eliminating the Russian bridgehead over the Zherebets river.

In the north, after recapturing the village of Grekovka, Ukrainian forces continued to advance deeper into Lugansk Oblast, pushing southeast down a tributary of the Zherebets River and each into the forests west of Makeevka, working to push the remaining Russian forces out of their strongpoints between Grekovka and Makeevka. Simultaneously, other assault groups were able to break through Russian lines east of Novomikhailovka, entering a number of forested areas along the Donetsk-Lugansk regional border, prompting Russia to retreat from the newly formed salient southwest of Grekovka. The loss of these forward positions has allowed Ukraine to begin supporting their push east of Grekovka by attacking in an easterly direction from the Novomikhailovka area, entering advancing towards the village of Balka Zhuravka (formerly called Nevske).

The advance on Balka Zhuravka is taking place from both the northwest and west. From the west, Ukrainian assault groups consolidated in the forests east of Katerinovka and broke through to the larger forests northwest of Novolyubovka, which they are now storming from multiple directions. This has allowed some Ukrainian DRG groups to cross the Zherebets River via Novolyubovka and begin operating in the area of Balka Zhuravka and Terny, east of the river.

To the south, Ukrainian forces continued advancing down the gulley stretching southeast from Katerynovka to Novosadovoe, reaching the Zherebets River at a new point, and beginning fighting for the forested areas north of Ivanovka. Other assault groups managed to capture a series of strongpoints in the forests west of Ivanovka and are now working to isolate the remaining Russian formations entrenched along the western bank of the Zherebets River.

Further south, the Ukrainians entrenched in the western part of Kolodezi and have almost cleared the rest of the village. Other assault groups broke through Russian defences east of Stavky, penetrating northeast for over 5 kilometres, recapturing the village of Mirnoe. Clearing operations against the remaining scattered Russian positions outside Kolodezi are ongoing in order to begin the final assault south of Ivanovka. Additionally, following weeks of attacks, Ukrainian forces managed to establish a foothold in northwestern Zarechnoe (formerly known as Kirovsk), which they are now using to try infiltrate across the Zherebets River into the Torskoe Fish Farm, and south towards the centre of Zarechnoe (Kirovsk), where they are facing fierce resistance from Russian defenders.

To the southwest, Ukrainian forces launched a new series of counterattacks closer to Krasny Lyman itself, where they managed to clear the fields south of Stavky and gain a foothold in the western part of the large Pinkov Gulley. From here, they are infiltrating east along the forests in the gulley, attempting to reach the western part of Zarechnoe (Kirovsk). This is being supported by additional attacks into the forests north of the gulley. Additionally, the Russian infiltrators in the northern part of Krasny Lyman were finally cleared, allowing Ukraine to re-establish control over the remaining fields north of the city as well, further pushing the Russians away from the city limits.

Further south, Ukrainian assault groups cleared the earlier Russian infiltrations into the area of the highway south of Krasny Lyman and initiated new counterattacks towards the Krasny Lyman-Seversk Highway, which they were able to reach from the direction of Brusovka and Dibrova. Heavy fighting continues for the Ozyornoe area and the strongpoints along the highway southwest of Yampol, without any major changes in the frontline.

🔗 AMK Mapping

🇺🇸❌🇪🇺 Trump threatened heavy tariffs on Europe if the EU grants Canada “associate member” status, calling the proposal a potential “hostile act.” He also suggested Washington could halt trade with Europe in some sectors, while calling Canada a “terrible trade partner.”

Canada is not seeking full EU membership. It wants a closer partnership as it reduces reliance on the U.S., which buys 70% of its exports. Canada has already joined the EU’s SAFE defense program.

Trump's fickle nature and habit of backstabbing his partners led Canadian PM, Mark Carney, to seek new trade partners and reduce Ottawa's exposure to the whims of the American president.

@CIG_telegram

🇨🇳❌🇺🇸 The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Beijing will not abide by the new Russia sanctions that were passed by Congress yesterday.

The spokesman of the Chinese MFA stated:

Economic and trade cooperation between China and other countries does not target any third party and shall be free from disruption or coercion from any third party. China opposes long-arm jurisdiction and unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and lack UN Security Council mandate.

🔗 China MFA Spokesman