/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Comparing TFR to early Weimar (whose slightly higher fertility was just a stage of the overall 1900-1933 German fertility collapse) or Baby Boom West Germany is not appropriate, you have to look at trends and comparable countries. Both pre-Nazi German and Baby Boom German fertility followed similar trends (falling to below replacement around 1930, huge spike after the war), but was generally much lower, than other Western countries, and in neither case was high birth rates the direct result of state policy. That's what distinguishes Nazi Germany - most state pronatal programs are very ineffective (like, 0.1 higher TFR than the counterfactual if you make certain assumptions, but still falling ineffective), but this one wasn't. Isn't that interesting? Try to decouple this from WWII and the Holocaust.
📝 Olly Bosque: This JSTOR article assumes the rise in the German fertility rate under the Nazis is due to the prohibition of abortion, information about contraceptives, and favorable tax exemptions to marriages and families with many children.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2768366
📎 arctotherium
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📢 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 French Presidential Candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon:
Our neighbour, Germany, decides that it is going to build the largest conventional army in Europe. My answer is no. And if you still want to do it, then we need to discuss it and you need to tell us why.
And secondly, is this large conventional army intended not for us? I hope not — the French. Of course not. So what is it for?
📎 Clash Report
Our neighbour, Germany, decides that it is going to build the largest conventional army in Europe. My answer is no. And if you still want to do it, then we need to discuss it and you need to tell us why.
And secondly, is this large conventional army intended not for us? I hope not — the French. Of course not. So what is it for?
📎 Clash Report
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
The strong “Erinnerungskultur” (culture of remembrance) in Germany, which involves confronting and acknowledging the crimes of the National Socialist era, means the AfD have been keen to distance themselves from any historical comparisons. As a result, they’ve been cautious, but clear, in how they market their views on promoting the native German birthrate. Their manifesto calls for a “demographic turnaround” they claim will transmit German culture and stabilise the country’s social systems. Although they’ve refrained from setting explicit numerical targets this election cycle, previous campaigns promoted the three-child family as the optimal means of addressing what they refer to as a “birth deficit”. The party’s financial proposals to encourage larger families—including tax credits and pension contributions—remain loosely defined.
Slightly less openly publicised is their corresponding stance on abortion. They argue financial support for couples will reduce what they feel is an excessively high abortion rate. Interestingly, according to World Population Review, the abortion rate in Germany was 5.4 per 1,000 women in 2024. Only 12 of the 151 countries included in the list had lower abortion rates.
However, their proposed policies in this area also remain vague. While stopping short of explicitly calling for an outright ban, the AfD has advocated stringent restrictions and pushed to end the recognition of abortion as a human right, or its support by the state. Evidence from the Guttmacher Institute shows it’s when women have access to sexual and reproductive health and rights, increased education and greater gender equality that abortion rates fall.
The baby bust
Population decline may be among the reasons behind the AfD's popularity. According to sociologist Katja Salomo, "Research shows that electoral support for far-right parties, including the AfD, tends to be higher in the regions most affected by population decline."
In 2023, domestic intelligence found that the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch was permeated by a "racist ideology" in violation of the German constitution which guarantees "human dignity" for all.
In its manifesto, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt argues that immigration is an, "Unsuitable remedy for the extinction of the local population." Instead, it wants to incentivise larger families by, for example, handing out baby bonus payments to parents.
https://populationmatters.org/news/2025/02/the-afd-how-it-could-reshape-german-family-policy-and-climate-action/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24ylyv40y5o
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Media is too big
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Now’s your chance. We’re giving away 70,000 free tickets to the Metropolitan Opera at the iconic Lincoln Center. Go to on.nyc.gov/opera to enter the lottery. There’s not a bad seat in the house.
📎 Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇨🇴🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡- Colombia joins Peru as the second South American nation to cut all diplomatic relations with Iran.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Handler)
The support for a ban on diesel export to support the domestic energy market has been gaining momentums among Republican politicians, who are facing a difficult midterm election.
@GeoPWatch
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
Qatar and Oman are pushing for renewed negotiations, potentially as early as next week, including a proposed seven-day pause in fighting and a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia, however, wants Iran to face further economic pressure following attacks on Gulf shipping and the increasing Houthi (Ansarallah) operations threatening its Red Sea oil exports.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told U.S. officials to maintain the blockade until Iran agrees to a new deal.
Meanwhile, Iranian diplomats have presented proposals to end the war, but mediators say the IRGC has taken a harder position, rejecting new negotiating formulas and signaling its readiness for a prolonged conflict.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
Alignment with the United States in implementing hostile policies will remain in the memory of the Iranian people, although our strategy in this regard is clear: Either flying in the region is permitted for everyone, or for no one.
If Iran is unable to operate flights and receive airport services, no country in the region will have this possibility either.
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Over the last 10 days, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive operations in the Krasny Lyman direction, which has facilitated the launching of additional counterattacks east of Nikolaevka in the direction of Seversk.
In the north, Ukrainian forces continued advancing eastwards down the Pinkov Gulley towards Zarechnoe (Kirovsk), entering the western part of the village, and captured some new positions on the northwestern outskirts of the settlement. Other forces continued fighting for the northern streets of the village.
To the southwest, after clearing northern Lyman from earlier Russian infiltrations, Ukrainian forces were able to establish control over the fields east of the city, while simultaneously breaking through east along the road to Zarechnoe (Kirovsk), entering the southwestern part of the village where they are now engaged in heavy fighting with Russian forces. Since then, they were able to fully clear the fields between Lyman and Zarechnoe (Kirovsk), pushing the Russians nearly 9 km away from the eastern outskirts of Lyman.
To the south, the Ukrainians completed their clearing operations in the southeastern suburbs of Lyman, thereby officially re-establishing full control over Lyman city. From there, they began advancing east through the forests towards Torskoe, pushing the Russians around 8 km away from the eastern outskirts of Lyman and establishing control over nearly the entire stretch of forest between Lyman and Torskoe.
To support these counterattacks east of Lyman, Ukrainian forces, with their newly improved logistical lines established in the recaptured areas north and northwest of Lyman, began funnelling in reinforcements for new operations southeast of Lyman, where they were able to clear the forests west of Dibrova before eventually re-establishing full control over the village itself. From here, they initiated new counterattacks east from Lyman, pushing down the railway line and recapturing a number of strongpoints along the way, while other assault groups secured the strongpoints at the lakes northeast of Dibrova.
To the southeast, the Ukrainians resumed infiltration operations into Yampol and recaptured the southern half of the village. From there, they began a two-pronged attack in the direction of Torskoe from the southwest, supporting the ongoing offensive from the west, where they are now actively infiltrating towards the railway overpass, the ostrich farm, and the western edge of the Serebryansky Forest in Lugansk Oblast. Due to these advances, Russian forces mostly withdrew from their large salient southeast of Lyman and are attempting to defend a small bridgehead west of the Zherebets River northeast of Yampol.
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