📝 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Mario Nawfal on X: Europe's riots are just the beginning. The real economic shock hasn't even arrived yet.

I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about the unrest spreading across France, Italy and Albania.

He thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger.

One statistic really caught my attention.

According to Pilkington, France's inflation-adjusted household food consumption has fallen roughly 6.4% since 2022. He suspects the poorest households have suffered far steeper cuts.

Now add another surge in energy prices.

Pilkington pointed to rice futures rising 70% this year, wheat and sugar climbing 40%, and fertilizer shortages threatening next year's harvest.

His prediction is that the worst food inflation could arrive this winter or next spring.

And there's a political problem sitting right on top of it.

Governments across Europe are already deeply unpopular. People are struggling to afford basic necessities, and another prolonged energy shock could push that frustration much further.

What worries me is that we're already seeing streets erupt before the full economic consequences of the Iran war have reached ordinary households.

Pilkington believes Europe is entering a period of serious instability. After hearing his numbers, I can understand why.

📎 Mario Nawfal

🇺🇦 Dmytro Rohoziuk becomes new commander of Third Army Corps, says Biletskyi

The Third Army Corps is now led by Dmytro Rohoziuk, who previously commanded the 60th Separate Mechanised Brigade. He was introduced by Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the Centre Grouping of Forces.

"So I believe we have three excellent corps commanders," Biletskyi said.

Which grouping Biletskyi took over

The Centre Grouping of Forces consists of three corps — the 3rd, 11th and 19th. It is responsible for the sector stretching from the southern approaches to Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi to Kostiantynivka, inclusive, covering Borova, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.

"This is a key sector at this stage of the war, and it accounts for 26% of the front. In other words, every fourth kilometre of the front is now directly within our grouping’s area of responsibility," Biletskyi said.

According to the commander, the biggest problem is the grouping’s ad hoc structure. It has no organic assets, unlike the corps, where he had 18 separate units. These included a reconnaissance battalion, an unmanned systems regiment, an air defence regiment, a medical battalion, and an engineering support regiment and battalion.

"They need to be created," Biletskyi said. According to him, there are also no clear planning procedures.

Biletskyi explained that the main task at the operational level is organising rear support and continuously sustaining the troops’ efforts. This includes logistics, roads, the condition of the power grid, housing, warehouses, concealed troop deployment, protection, air defence and electronic warfare. According to him, no one had been addressing rear support within this grouping.

What comes next

Biletskyi recalled that the development doctrine of the Armed Forces of Ukraine envisages a transition in 2030 to a permanent structure known internationally as a field army. If the operational level’s potential can be unlocked and demonstrated, this transition could happen sooner.

According to him, better coordination had made it possible to stabilise the line at the boundary between the 3rd and 11th Corps. This had been the most dangerous stretch of the Sloviansk sector. He compared the work within the grouping to cleaning the "Augean stables", but said there was a chance of success.

In his assessment, winter will be the most difficult period for the troops, but neither he nor the corps commanders see any point in "remaining static in all these sectors".

https://censor.net/en/news/4029299/dmytro-rohoziuk-takes-command-of-ukraine-s-third-army-corps

🇺🇦 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said Ukraine would reinforce its positions in Donetsk Oblast with two new military groupings led by Biletsky and Azov Corps commander Denys Prokopenko.

The second grouping will be called Azov, a Ukrainian defense forces source told hromadske.

https://hromadske.ua/en/viyskovi/270739-biletsky-to-lead-new-ukrainian-force-grouping-defending-most-of-donetsk-oblast

🇫🇷 The protests happening in Paris are an inevitable part of the transition that France is going through. The demographic, political, and historical pressures are making government spending increasingly difficult to sustain.

📎 Peter Zeihan

📢 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Trump warns the U.S. may have "no choice but to leave” Europe if its leaders fail to change course, citing immigration policies and a failure to assist Washington during the Iran war. He also says they should close their borders to immigrants.

📎 Faytuks Network

🇺🇦 Corps have been created, brigades continue to be transferred: how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now managed

https://en.topwar.ru/amp/291595-korpusa-sozdali-brigady-prodolzhajut-peredavat-kak-teper-upravljajut-vsu.html

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇩🇪 Active-duty Army units to take over training of Ukrainian troops in Bavaria

The U.S. Army is shifting responsibility for training Ukrainian troops in Bavaria to active-duty units already stationed there, moving the mission toward a more permanent footing after a decade under National Guard leadership.

The training of Ukrainian troops will continue at U.S. Army Garrison Bavaria and its expansive training ranges, the largest in Europe.

The move appears to be part of a broader realignment to use local assets and reduce duplication. It comes just days after Guard members passed command of the NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo to Vilseck’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment and supporting units from the 1st Infantry Division.

The Army will continue to coordinate support for Ukrainian forces through U.S. European Command and NATO Security Assistance and Training-Ukraine, in alignment with U.S. policy, Weisman said.

The NATO security assistance group has the primary responsibility of coordinating training across the alliance and with partner nations.

Since relocating to Germany, the group has trained more than 24,000 Ukrainian military personnel across 50 platforms and specialty events, including 300 classes of instruction, the Sunday statement said.

https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2026-10-19/national-guard-ukraine-training-germany-23197534.html