🇪🇺🕊🇷🇺 European officials are discussing the possibility of appointing a representative who would directly negotiate with Putin on resolving the Ukrainian conflict, according to Politico.

"President Putin does not view the European Union as an authoritative organization," said Czech President Petr Pavel. "He does not want to talk to Ursula von der Leyen, he does not talk to Kaja Kallas. He has stopped communicating with other European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron." "The main problem is to decide who should take on this 'dangerous task'," the publication notes.

The Brussels community will have to accept that a deal with Putin and Trump will not be dictated by EU protocols, Politico observes. "We cannot allow two or three people to speak on behalf of the EU. The choice of who will represent the EU will be based on what will bring the greatest benefit, not on personal power struggles or narcissistic preferences," said one senior diplomat to the publication on condition of anonymity.

Who will become the negotiator for the EU, if anyone, is still unclear. However, those who are definitely not seen in this role are von der Leyen and Kallas, according to the article. Most of the diplomats interviewed by Politico mentioned the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, and the President of the European Council, António Costa.

🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/talking-to-vladimir-putin-europe-seeks-a-negotiator-in-chief-for-ukraine/

🇮🇷🇦🇫 Iran forcibly deports over 492,000 Afghans in 2026, UNHCR says

Iran has forcibly deported more than 492,000 Afghans since the start of 2026, the UN refugee agency said, Pajhwok Afghan News says.

The deportations are part of the wider departure from Iran of an estimated 581,600 Afghans who left Iran since the start of the year. That means 85% of this year's returnees were expelled rather than leaving by choice. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said the influx was straining housing, basic services and job prospects in Afghanistan and adding to the burden on the communities receiving them. The flow follows 2025, when more than 1.9mn Afghans left Iran, roughly 1,261,600 of them through forced removal.

The agency's latest report, released on October 8, showed that 475,400 people crossed back into Afghanistan after February 28. Of these, 398,100 had been deported.

Since the 12 Day War in June 2025, Iran has deported close to 2 million Afghan migrants after it was revealed many were recruited by the Mossad to carry out acts of sabotage against the Iranian state, assembling drones from which they struck targets from within Iran itself which was revealed to have caused most of the damage in that conflict.

The crackdown on Afghan communities in Iran after the 12 Day War pretty much destroyed Mossad's spy network in the country hence why Israel needed to enlist the U.S. for the 40-Day War in 2026.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/iran-forcibly-deports-over-492-000-afghans-in-2026-unhcr-says-474956/

🇨🇦🇹🇷 Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet President Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey ​on Thursday, in the first bilateral visit by a Canadian leader, as he seeks to expand trade ties and reduce reliance on the ‌United States.

Carney and Erdogan are expected to sign a declaration deepening cooperation in four areas including defence and energy, a person briefed on the matter said. A Turkish diplomatic source said the bilateral ties will be upgraded to a "strategic partnership."

Carney is on a global trade blitz that he hopes will help buffer Canada from a trade war with the ​US, where President Donald Trump has applied sweeping tariffs and questioned the neighbouring country's sovereignty.

Although trade between Canada and Turkey is tiny – Turkey accounted for less than 0.3% of Canada’s total merchandise trade or C$4.34 billion ($3.09 billion) – bilateral trade has risen by nearly 50% in ​the past five years.

In the last year, Canada has signed more than 20 trade deals as part of Carney’s ‌push to ⁠double non-US exports in the next decade. He flew to Beijing in January to reset fractured relations with China, striking a deal that slashed tariffs on electric vehicles and canola.

Despite criticism that China is a security risk, given Canadian authorities previously found China had interfered in at least two federal elections, Carney has described China as a “more predictable” trading partner than the US.

However, Canada still sends nearly 70% of exports to the US.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-carney-visits-turkey-push-ease-us-trade-dependence-2026-10-22/

🇷🇺🌾🇺🇸 Russia is ready to help America not only with diesel

While preparing to send the first tanker with Russian diesel in the United States – this is expected the other day – Russia is establishing new contracts with America for the supply of its fertilizers. There are no problems with their sale to Russia. But American farmers suffer from both the price of diesel and the lack of fertilizers. Russia is ready to help on all fronts.

Russia is ready to supply fertilizers in large quantities to the American market, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, who on Wednesday at the Constantine Palace in St. Pererburg held a meeting with US President Steve Witkoff.

“As far as farmers are concerned, I know President Trump even mentioned it in our phone conversations. We could supply fertilizers in large quantities to the American market,” Putin said.

It is not about the resumption of deliveries, but about expansion. Because Russian fertilizers and so are delivered in the United States.

According to the US customs, from January to May 2026, the United States imported fertilizers from Russia for a record amount of more than $ 1 billion for this period. This is almost one third more than in the same period last year, when imports amounted to 806.4 million dollars. According to the results of the first five months, Russia came to the second place among the largest fertilizer suppliers to the States. The first place in this list is Canada ($1.8 billion), the third is Saudi Arabia ($318.3 million).

What volumes of fertilizers Russia can put in the United States now, it is difficult to say exactly, as the transaction has not yet been executed and the volume is not named. However, the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAPU) allowed an increase in total exports of Russian fertilizers in 2026 from 45 million to 46 million tons, i.e. about 1 million tons, but it is an increase for all buyers, not a reserve for the United States, says Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global.

“Some of the additional American purchases can be provided by the growth of output, and part by the redirection of parties from less profitable directions, including Europe.

Where does Russia supply its fertilizers and in what volumes? According to RAPU, in 2025, Russia exported 45 million tons of fertilizers, taking a share of 19% in the global market. Brazil purchased 11.1 million tons, or about a quarter of Russian exports, India 6 million tons, about 13%. In general, the BRICS countries accounted for 22.8 million tons, i.e. just over half of the supply. Our fertilizers are valuable, so they are bought by Western countries - the United States and the EU countries, says Chernov.

But for the United States, the fertilizer deficit was a real problem in 2026, which created risks for the country's sowing campaign and food security. Donald Trump even had to suspend duties on phosphate fertilizers.

Here there was a set of reasons. First, a large part of the world's supply of nitrogen fertilizers and raw materials for them, in particular sulphur, passed through the Strait of Hormuz. And the overlap of the strait has led to a huge deficit and rising sulphur prices, as well as a shortage of fertilizers themselves. Secondly, the United States just imports half of the necessary volume of nitrogen fertilizers from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Third, China stopped exporting its fertilizers until the end of August, and this has reduced supply on the world market.

As a result, fertilizer prices grew by one third this year, which allows our companies to earn without increasing volumes. If it is still possible to increase deliveries to the United States without confusing prices, it will be a good super-profit for our business and the Russian state budget.

🔗 https://vz.ru/economy/2026/10/22/1466067.html

🇷🇸🗳 The wave of popular unrest sweeping across Western and Southern Europe extends to Serbia as Serbian students marched into Belgrade ahead of crucial election

Cheers, music and fireworks greeted students arriving in Belgrade from across Serbia on the evening of October 21, in a festive show of support ahead of a final rally that will test whether their anti-government movement can turn two years of protests into electoral gains.

Long columns of students and supporters who had walked from the north, west and east of the country were welcomed by large crowds near the University of Belgrade’s Rectorate, where a red carpet was laid out for their arrival. People waved flags, blew whistles, lit torches and sang as the marchers entered the capital.

The arrival was a prelude to a final rally on October 22 at Slavija Square, where the student-backed electoral list, running under the name “Students Win”, is due to gather at 18:00 under the slogan “Victory is Calling”.

The scenes echoed the energy of the mass demonstrations that have swept Serbia since November 2024, when 16 people were killed by the collapse of an exterior roof at the railway station in the northern city of Novi Sad.

What began as demands for accountability over the disaster and for the release of classified documents behind the station’s renovation grew into a wider movement against corruption and the long-standing rule of Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Students have organised university blockades, strikes, road closures and repeated mass rallies, drawing support from people across the country.

Thursday’s planned gathering in Belgrade marks a decisive moment for the movement as it seeks to carry that momentum from the streets to the ballot box in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election.

The movement has brought together academics, doctors, engineers, artists and other public figures, campaigning on a platform focused on institutional reform, judicial independence, anti-corruption measures and greater transparency in public procurement.

But the enthusiasm on display in Belgrade poses a central question for the election: can a movement that has mobilised large crowds and reached communities across Serbia translate its public support into enough votes to challenge a ruling party that has dominated politics for more than a decade?

The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), in power since 2012, is also holding its final campaign rally in Belgrade on October 22, at 16:00 at a sports hall in New Belgrade. The party has organised rallies in other cities, including Nis and Novi Sad.

Vucic, who resigned as president in September to campaign as the SNS candidate for prime minister, has said the party wants to demonstrate that it expects to win across the country.

Some recent polls suggest the student-backed list could significantly reduce the SNS’s support. However, the ruling party retains extensive political networks and a strong base among older voters, while the student movement is seeking to mobilise undecided voters and convert a broad coalition of supporters into votes with a broad programme centred on corruption and institutional reform.

The final rallies will take place against a backdrop of concerns about unequal media access, pressure on public-sector employees, the unfair use of state resources and possible electoral irregularities. Opposition parties and civil society groups have raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral environment.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/serbian-students-march-into-belgrade-ahead-of-crucial-election-477998/

🇵🇰⚔️🇦🇫 ‘Open War’ Between Afghanistan and Pakistan Adds a Volatile Element

China has tried to mediate, unsuccessfully. So have Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And yet the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan shows no sign of ending, and each side appears to have abandoned diplomacy. Proxy groups are also playing a growing role in the fighting.

In the latest round of fighting on Saturday, Pakistan’s military claims to have destroyed a military camp along the rugged, porous border and killed Afghan soldiers. A provincial spokesman for the Afghan military denied that there were any Afghan casualties and claimed instead that the Taliban had killed 13 Pakistani soldiers.

The conflict could become even more unpredictable, said Ibraheem Bahiss, an expert on Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group, as both sides embrace proxy groups: The Taliban in Afghanistan are accused of failing to restrain incursions by armed groups in the borderland that target Pakistan, while Pakistan is warming to the idea of supporting anti-Taliban armed opposition.

On Sept. 27, the Taliban said they had killed 28 militiamen and captured 32 others who had tried to enter Afghanistan from Pakistan. The Pakistani government called the accusations “baseless.”

“The proxy standoff is intensifying, and that’s a more dangerous escalation,” Mr. Bahiss said.

Pakistan’s military and intelligence officials have met with leaders of anti-Taliban armed groups in recent months to offer potential support, according to a Pakistani intelligence official, a former national security official briefed on the meetings, and a senior Afghan member of one of those groups.

The conflict between the two countries, which escalated when Pakistan declared “open war” in late February, has stymied months of effort to broker peace and killed or injured at least 1,100 Afghan civilians. More than 730 civilians have been killed in militant attacks in Pakistan this year, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a New Delhi-based monitoring platform.

In April, China hosted talks that went nowhere. On Oct. 5, a meeting in Moscow on Afghan security among 10 countries in the region failed to produce a joint statement because of disagreements between the Afghan and Pakistani delegations, according to Vladimir V. Putin’s special representative for Russia.

🔗 https://archive.ph/sECeN

📈 🇫🇷 🇺🇸 For the first time since 2013, France's 10Y Government Bond yield has risen above the US 10Y Note Yield.

That's +550 basis points since the low seen in 2020.

Borrowing costs are skyrocketing in France.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🇦🇪 Dubai's economy shrinks 2.3% in 1H26 as war hits trade and travel

Dubai's real GDP fell 2.3% y/y in the first half of 2026 to about AED473bn ($128.8bn), as the war in the Middle East hit the emirate's trade, transport and tourism, official data published on October 17 showed, Khaleej Times reported.

Wholesale and retail trade, the largest sector at 20.5% of output, shrank 6% and transport and storage 7.4%, while financial services grew 8.8% and health care 14.3%, according to the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment. Real estate fell 2.5% and manufacturing 0.9%. In current prices GDP rose 0.2% to about AED505bn.

The contraction reverses first-quarter growth of 2.4% and implies a fall of about 6% y/y in the second quarter, Oxford Economics said in a note on October 21. Unlike the UAE as a whole, which grew 0.4% in the first half, Dubai has no oil output to fall back on as the region's main trade, aviation and tourism hub. Airport passenger numbers fell by nearly a third in the half, and the emirate drew 44.4% fewer international visitors in the first eight months than a year earlier.

The worst may be over. Air traffic recovered through the second quarter and the UAE purchasing managers' index held at 55.3 in September. "The stronger PMI readings suggest the trough has passed, but a full recovery in tourism and logistics hinges on shipping and air traffic normalising, which we don't expect until well into next year," Oxford Economics said. It forecasts UAE GDP will contract by 1.8% in 2026 before rebounding by 6% in 2027.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/dubai-s-economy-shrinks-2-3-in-1h26-as-war-hits-trade-and-travel-478026/?source=turkey-sectors-and-companies

🇫🇷❌🪧 France will outlaw all protests that are not organised by trade unions

'Requests to demonstrate or gather from groups that have no legitimacy to make such demands will be prohibited by the prefects,' says President Macron

"The prefects will propose alternative routes when requests come from trade union organizations. When they do not come from trade union organizations, demonstrations will be banned wherever possible to restore calm and protect businesses and public buildings," Macron added.

He further acknowledged that there were "failures in anticipation and elements of surprise" during last weekend’s nationwide protests over the cost of living and fuel prices.

"Prefects have already taken several measures wherever necessary, including banning gatherings and demonstrations and imposing curfews. The events of last night once again demonstrated the need for these measures," Macron said.

He added that more in-depth investigations are being done, underlining that "both political and even seditious acts carried out by organized far-left groups seeking to bring down the Republic” had recently been witnessed.

🔗 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/france-to-ban-demonstrations-not-organized-by-trade-unions-in-coming-days/4097092

📈 🇫🇷 🔼 French 30yr yields breached 5.59% today - the highest level since 2002.

Even during the Great Financial Crisis, yields were lower than they are today. The market is losing confidence in the French State.

📎 Nic

🇫🇷 The Paris Prefecture advised shop/business owners to hire private security in a rare admission of defeat by the French state

🔗 https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/direct-violences-du-17-octobre-les-renseignements-convoques-par-emmanuel-macron-a-l-elysee-les-partis-politiques-recus-a-matignon_LN-202610220086.html

🇺🇸⚡️ — Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley, are restricting third-party AI agents after detecting unauthorized access to customer accounts and cases where agents appeared to act beyond user instructions, Axios reports.

Banks fear agents could make unauthorized purchases, transfer funds or take other actions affecting customers’ finances.

Banks acknowledge customers will increasingly want to use AI agents but say the security risks remain too high for unrestricted access.

📝 🇫🇷 🏦 Collingwood on X: ECB bailout needed much earlier than previously thought.

Such a bailout would have two effects:

First, if France gets such treatment, Italy, Spain, Portugal and the rest will want it. What would be the argument against its extension? "Ah, but you're not France?" This would be inflationary by definition.

Secondly, there would be hell to pay, in Germany especially. AfD would make hay, and there would undoubtedly be cases brought against the ECB to the German supreme court in Karlsruhe (and thence the ECJ) for monetising debt, verboten in European Treaty Law. Such a case was brought last time -- and that was far less obvious than a bailout of France would be this time. It seems likely that the issue of Germany's membership of the Eurozone would become live almost overnight. Very much not what the EU, or national European, elites want.

Therefore, ideally, the ECB would want to extract swingeing austerity measures from the French government before opening the central bank monetary spigot. Yet the French are already rioting and unions are calling for a general strike. How could Greek or Irish style austerity possibly make it through in such a febrile environment. Revolution would be on the cards.

It is quite the pickle they find themselves in. We should probably look out for quiet bond buying steps to "prevent speculation", or "address problems caused by mispriced securities," or "restore the correct functioning of the markets." I struggle to see, however, how they would get away with that. Everybody would see it. However, the head of the ECB *is* French, and the general understanding is that the French, whether their permanent membership of the IMF, or in any other international institutions they control, will ultimately help France, irrespective of their brief.

📎 Collingwood