🍽 🇫🇷 France: 7 Million People Face Food Poverty

According to the survey, 13% of the population consists of adults who sometimes/often go without enough to eat, with 39% (47% among young adults) saying they can't eat what they want.

Since Macron became president, a million people have been added to the poverty bracket. Purchasing power has declined year by year, and food banks now see long lines of young people.

📎 Midori Fujisawa共訳『候補者ジェレミー・コービン』岩波書店

🇮🇪 The Irish state has published an advert discouraging grandparents from hugging their grandchildren, as part of a campaign designed to promote "consent".

📝 Keith Woods: "In my book The Gnostic Question, I argued that liberalism's ultimate tendency is emancipation from the given: freeing the sovereign individual from all unchosen bonds, identities and obligations.

In a pluralist society with no shared conception of the good, freedom becomes something entirely negative – freedom from all constraints – and autonomy and consent become all-consuming moral principles.

This logic must eventually extend to all that is unchosen, even the most intimate and natural human relationships like the bond between grandparents and their grandchildren."

https://www.keithwoods.com/p/gnosticquestion

📎 Europa

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- Brent crude oil has risen to $113 per barrel, its highest level since May.

🇺🇸🇮🇳⚡️- President Trump praised Vivek Ramaswamy for the Acton ad saying "I only wish the mothers of my opponents would be so brave as to come forward and explain that their son or daughter is a liar, and much worse."

🇺🇸 🇮🇳 🚷 Vivek Ramaswamy plans to grow Ohio’s population to 15 million "by the time I’m done as governor"

To grow from 11.9M to 15M, that'd be a +26% jump. The biggest state increase over the past 8 years was +12.5% in Texas. To do so, it'd take a mass migration event to Ohio

How would Vivek Ramaswamy’s plan to grow Ohio’s population to 15 million "by the time I’m done as governor" impact Ohio’s housing market?

To answer that, we first have to look at where the population growth would come from.

Ohio has about 11.9 million residents. Getting to 15 million by the end of 2034 means adding roughly 3.1 million people. For comparison, Ohio added 234K people over the past 8 years.

Even the biggest short-term jump in fertility rates on record wouldn’t come close to closing that gap. To get there, Ohio would need a huge migration influx.

Vivek seems to know this. He’s talked about reworking Ohio policy to get more people to move to the state, and a PAC backing him even ran a Times Square billboard urging New Yorkers to move to Ohio.

The problem is that switching costs are extremely high right now. With elevated home prices and mortgage rates, many homeowners in other states would see their monthly payment spike if they sold and moved. That’s a big reason state-to-state migration is in a cyclical low window, and it likely still will be when a theoretical Vivek administration takes office next year.

So even IF domestic migration picked up and birth rates rose, hitting 15 million would largely require a big jump in international migration to Ohio. Net international migration has slowed over the past two years. But the longer it stays subdued, the more business pressure to increase it will build, and over time federal politics could shift. If international migration rebounds and Ohio captures a big share of it, that’s the path that gets Vivek closest to his goal.

Why does the source of population growth matter for housing?

Not every new resident creates the same kind of housing demand. A newborn adds to the population and might push parents toward a bigger home, and one day that baby will likely become a renter and then a homeowner. But a baby isn’t an immediate buyer or renter. An adult moving to Ohio is immediate rental or for-sale demand.

So what would a population boom do to Ohio’s housing market?

1. A construction wave, both residential and commercial. Ohio would become a growth market on the radar of every major public homebuilder.

2. Significant short-term upward pressure on home prices, land prices, and rents—in particular around the deep exurbs of Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland (i.e., where much of the growth burst would likely go)

Housing demand is more elastic than housing supply. Demand can rise or fall quickly, while the number of homes grows slowly. Ohio has been a low-growth homebuilding market for decades and doesn’t have the capacity to quickly ramp up to the volume this kind of growth would require. There’s only so much entitled land, so much ready infrastructure, and so much residential construction labor at any given time.

Ohio authorizes only about 30,000 to 35,000 new housing units a year through building permits. And there are only around 25K homes for sale in the entire state right now, according to Realtor.com.

IF Vivek could actually grow Ohio from 11.9 million to 15 million people by 2034, it would spark a building boom, but it would also put upward pressure on home prices, rents, and land prices. IF the migration skewed toward higher-income households, that pressure would be even greater, since incomes are the No. 1 correlate with home prices.

Could Vivek actually pull this off? I doubt it. But IF he came close, it would be because international migration swung back up and he helped Ohio capture a big chunk of it.


📎 Lance Lambert

Do it for Western Civilization
Or, Solving the Birthrate Crisis to Avoid a Sci-Fi Indian Future

Director's Note & New Video

My mother-in-law is a huge fan of The Expanse. So, in familial solidarity, I committed to watching the first season. Besides the predictable modern Hollywood-stereotype cast (smart Black female engineer, White male oaf, etc.), there were some roles I thought not far from the truth if demographic trends continue.

For example, the leader of Earth’s new UN-led globalist empire is an Indian woman. Although I’m aware the actress Shohreh Aghdashloo is ethnically Iranian, the character of Chrisjen Avasarala is written explicitly as Indian in the series. (Modern Indian culture of course would not allow a female leader and the country currently brags the highest proportion of child brides in the world as reported by Girls Not Brides, but the writers are optimistic about the global future of feminism.)

Today’s Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is quite open about its desire to use the Indian diaspora to extend India’s influence globally. In their 2014 election manifesto, they called the diaspora, “a vast reservoir to articulate the national interests and affairs globally,” a tool “harnessed for strengthening Brand India.” There are currently about 1.51 billion Indians worldwide, and they are looking to export their 45 million surplus males. This Spring, just before the Remigration Summit conference, EU and Scandinavian leaders gleefully agreed to accept Indian credentials to allow for easier migration into Western countries. (We reviewed the deal here.) This was not put to a vote. But now, with the EU facing a 15% youth unemployment rate, nearly three million young Europeans will now have the opportunity to compete with Indians in their home countries. And what this means for the future of Iceland, a country of a mere 400,000 or so people, I shudder to think.

Meanwhile, ethnic Europeans make up only 8-12% of the world’s population. And that percentage is shrinking rapidly. In many European and American major cities, we are becoming a demographic minority within one generation. That leaves the question: is there anyone thinking about our future? Who is our Narendra Modi?

In this presentation, given at the last Remigration Summit in Porto, Portugal, I evaluate the range of policy efforts in Western nations to boost their fertility rates. I also discuss how Remigration plays a vital role in the success or failure of any policy program.

Whether we have a future at all will depend on it.

📹 Watch on YouTube here.
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 The next Iran escalation could trigger a financial crisis in Europe. | Mario Nawfal

I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about what another major round of U.S. strikes on Iran could mean for the global economy.

His concern isn't just oil reaching $120 or $125 a barrel.

It's what happens when that shock hits countries already struggling with debt, inflation and rising borrowing costs.

Philip believes France could eventually need an ECB bailout, with Britain potentially next. And he fears the fallout could spread into U.S. Treasury markets.

But I challenged him on something.

Foreign holdings of American debt are actually rising, despite China and Japan selling. Doesn't that suggest investors still trust U.S. Treasuries?

Philip thinks that confidence could disappear quickly if European governments are forced to sell assets to defend their own economies.

He also suspects gold is replacing Treasuries as the ultimate safe haven, although he acknowledged that hasn't been proven.

What worries me is how little room governments seem to have left for another major shock.

A war that starts in the Gulf could end up testing the financial foundations of Europe and America.

📎 Mario Nawfal