🗳 🇮🇱 📊 2026 Election Results - Bloc Totals (21.3% in)

🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 49.6%
🔴Opposition Bloc: 36.7%
🟢Arab Parties: 9.7%
🟣Others: 3.9%

📎 Israel Elects

🗳 🇮🇱 📊 2026 Election Results: Total Vote Share by Bloc (28.2% in)

🔵Netanyahu: 48.2%
🔴Opposition: 36%
🟢Arab Parties: 12%
🟣Others: 3.9%

📎 Israel Elects

🇶🇦🇮🇷 Qatar says Iran needs to show good intentions for mediation efforts to succeed

Iran needs to show good intentions for mediation efforts to succeed, mediator Qatar ​said on Tuesday, after a delegation from ‌the Gulf Arab country visited Tehran earlier this week in an effort to de-escalate regional tensions in coordination with ​the United States.

A spokesperson for the Qatari ​Foreign Ministry told a press briefing that Iran ⁠should stop threats against Arab Gulf states ​and open the Strait of Hormuz to show good ​intentions.

Qatar, along with Pakistan, has been mediating between Washington and Tehran in an effort to end the US-Israeli war on Iran ​that has disrupted global shipping and oil ​supplies, and spilled over across other parts of the Middle East.

📝 Representatives of Gulf Arab monarchies, Pakistan and Turkey going to Tehran to discuss regional security is a major political victory by Iran who is now considered by its neighbours strong and important enough to get consulted on regional security matters.

War is a continuation of politics by other means. Even if Iran suffered more material damage than it inflicted on its enemies, it is the sole country that achieved its political objectives in the 40 Day War those being: kicking out the U.S. from its bases in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf, forcing the U.S Navy out of the Persian Gulf, gaining control of the Hormuz Strait and being recognised by the other Middle Eastern countries as a significant if not the most powerful actor in the region.

Having delegates from Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey and the KSA travel to Tehran to discuss such matters was unthinkable 10 months ago. The Qatari complaint about Iran's "lack of goodwill" is out of place in the present day as Qatar, a country that opened its airspace to U.S. aircraft from which to target Iran, is in no place to make such demands, a fact which they will have to learn the hard way.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/qatar-says-iran-needs-show-good-intentions-mediation-efforts-succeed-2026-10-27/

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 US blockade squeezes Iran's economy but may not force a deal

A US naval blockade has cut Iran's oil exports to a trickle and pushed inflation near 90%, but may not force Tehran to concede, Capital Economics argued on October 27.

Tracking estimates put Iran's seaborne crude exports at around 50,000 barrels a day (b/d) in both August and September, against 1.5mn-2.0mn b/d before the war, wrote Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at the London-based consultancy. No crude has been loaded at Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, since late August, and Iraq and Pakistan have closed some border crossings with Iran, curbing its overland oil sales.

Oil exports were earning Iran $2bn-3bn a month before the war, Tuvey estimates, so a fall of more than 95% in seaborne volumes strips Tehran of most of its hard-currency income after more than 100 days of blockade. The central bank has already cut the dollars it supplies for imports to $27bn in the first seven months of the Iranian year, against more than $40bn in the same period two years earlier.

Iran's stock of oil already outside the blockade is shrinking as well. Iranian crude at sea is now estimated at 50mn barrels, down from 140mn-150mn barrels before the war, and tighter US sanctions have made those cargoes harder to sell.

The IMF estimated Iran's usable foreign exchange reserves at just $22.6bn in 2024, and they were probably lower by the time the fighting began, according to the note. That would replace lost oil revenue for less than a year. The other way to adjust is for imports, and with them domestic demand, to fall, and Chinese trade data show exports to Iran were 30% lower y/y in September.

The rial has lost 50% of its value against the dollar on the parallel market since the start of the year, hitting a record low in October, and official figures put inflation at close to 90% y/y in September, the highest rate since at least 1958, Tuvey wrote. Anecdotal evidence of goods shortages is mounting, and the IMF expects the economy to shrink by 7.6% this year.

"Economic pressure won't necessarily force the Iranian regime to make concessions," he wrote, pointing to regimes that clung to power through economic collapse with a mix of patronage and repression, such as Cuba after the 1959 revolution and Venezuela from 2012.

The squeeze is arriving just as Iran's hand in the conflict may be weakening. Tehran has stepped up attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's critical chokepoints, in recent weeks, but has so far struggled to make a significant dent in energy flows from the Gulf, according to Capital Economics.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/comment-us-blockade-squeezes-iran-s-economy-but-may-not-force-a-deal-479266/

🗳 🇮🇱 📊 Knesset Seat Distribution Based on Current Results (37.4% counted)

🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 57
🔴Opposition Bloc: 47
🟢Arab Parties: 16

📎 Israel Elects

🇷🇸🇷🇺 Serbia's student movement has won a historic election victory over Aleksandar Vučić's ruling party, but early indications suggest the new government is unlikely to sever ties with Russia or fundamentally change the country's foreign policy.

The Student List won 52.71% of the vote and 140 seats in parliament in the October 25 snap election, according to preliminary results from the Republic Election Commission. The SNS led by Vučić won 39.17% and 104 seats, ending 14 years of dominance by his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

The result marks a major political turning point for Serbia, an EU candidate since 2012. But the movement's victory was driven primarily by anger over corruption and demands for institutional reform, rather than a desire to change the country's international alliances.

The students brought together a politically diverse coalition, including right-wing nationalists and more liberal-minded figures, united by opposition to Vučić’s government. Their differences could complicate efforts to form a stable government and agree on a common foreign policy.

During the campaign, the movement's leading candidate, Ilija Srdanović, sought to keep the focus on domestic problems, arguing that Serbia's institutions needed to be reformed before difficult questions about the country's international position could be resolved.

In an interview with the BBC in September, he said Serbia's foreign policy should be guided by the interests of its citizens, while stressing the importance of the country's strategic interests, energy dependence and cooperation with Russia.

He told Insajder TV that EU membership was not the movement's immediate priority, arguing that questions about accession should be considered once media freedom and public debate had been restored. He said citizens should ultimately decide on membership in a referendum.

The statements suggest the student-led government is likely to prioritise domestic reforms rather than make sweeping foreign-policy changes. Reforms to the judiciary and media could bring Serbia closer to EU standards, but that does not necessarily mean its leaders will accelerate accession or abandon their existing international relationships.

The Student List's pragmatic position could disappoint EU leaders, who have repeatedly called on Serbia to align its foreign policy more closely with the bloc's.

The movement has already signalled that it does not intend to abandon Serbia's longstanding ties with Moscow.

In a statement published during the campaign, it said Serbia would maintain its "principled stance against imposing restrictive measures on the Russian Federation".

Serbia has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while also condemning violations of Ukraine's territorial integrity at the United Nations.

One reason is its dependence on Russian energy. Russia supplies about 80% of Serbia's natural gas imports, while the two countries maintain longstanding political and economic ties.

Belgrade also opposes sanctions on principle, citing its historical relationship with Moscow and its own experience of Western sanctions in the 1990s, which severely damaged the economy and made life difficult for ordinary people.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/will-serbia-s-election-change-its-foreign-policy-479268/

🇹🇷🇦🇿 Erdogan bows to Azerbaijani pressure, sacks aide who started diplomatic spat

Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is 2-for-2 in faceoffs against fellow regional leaders after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jettisoned an aide, opening the way for Baku and Ankara to move on from a bout of acrimony.

The Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet reported on October 25 that Erdogan advisor Oktay Saral had been forced to resign. Saral’s criticism of the introduction of new regulations in Azerbaijan that effectively banned religious attire, including hijabs, in state schools sparked a diplomatic row between Baku and Ankara. His departure presumably clears the way for a rapid reconciliation process to begin.

“Our president appointed me to this position, and I resigned at his instruction,” Cumhuriyet quoted Saral as saying. “I bear no ill will towards anyone.”

Saral confirmed in a social media post that his initial comments about the hijab controversy were responsible for his forced departure.

In demanding Saral’s resignation, Erdogan appeared to bow to pressure from Baku to take action to rein in Turkish critics of Azerbaijani policies. Commentaries appearing in Azerbaijan’s tightly state-controlled press had indicated a conciliatory gesture by Erdogan was needed to get bilateral relations back on track.

Earlier in 2026, Aliyev outlasted Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a battle of wills stemming from the accidental shootdown of an Azerbaijani civilian airliner in late 2024. Aliyev exerted pressure on Putin for months until the Kremlin leader finally acknowledged responsibility for the tragedy last fall. Aliyev also forced Putin’s client, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, to offer a ritualised apology earlier in October for the incident.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/erdogan-bows-to-azerbaijani-pressure-sacks-aide-who-started-diplomatic-spat-478985/

🇵🇱 Poland’s population shrinks by 165,000

Poland’s population fell by 165,000 year on year (y/y) to just over 37.21mn at the end of September, as deaths continued to outnumber births substantially, the statistical office GUS said on October 23.

The figures underscore Poland’s worsening demographic challenges, which threaten to exacerbate labour shortages, constrain long-term economic growth and increase pressure on the pension and healthcare systems.

The population was 121,000 smaller than at the end of 2025, a 0.32% decline in just nine months, compared with 0.3% in the same period last year.

Poland recorded approximately 176,000 live births between January and September, down 6,000 y/y. Deaths increased by 3,000 to 305,000.

The resulting natural population decrease widened to 129,000 from 121,000 a year earlier. The birth rate declined to 6.3 per 1,000 inhabitants from 6.5, while the death rate increased to 10.9 from 10.8.

Monthly births have stabilised somewhat since June, reaching 21,000 in September, although this remained below the 22,500 recorded a year earlier.

Net international migration for permanent residence remained positive, but insufficient to offset the natural population decline, according to an earlier GUS estimate.

In an experimental simulation published in 2025, GUS estimated that Poland’s population could shrink to 28.4mn by 2060 if fertility remained at the 2024 level of 1.1 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/poland-s-population-shrinks-by-165-000-478772/

🇦🇫🇨🇳 Taliban complete Afghanistan road to China – but Beijing keeps border firmly shut

The Taliban completed their road to the Chinese border – but were met with a frosty silence from across the frontier, according to multiple local reports.

As explained by a feature published by IntelliNews in May, the Islamist politico-militant group that governs Afghanistan are the latest rulers of the country to dream of “opening up Wakhan Corridor, the mountain valley that connects three worlds”. But the road has been built only in the hope that China will play ball. Still addressing sensitive considerations such as what would an open border with Afghanistan mean for the Chinese territory that borders the country, majority-Muslim Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), Beijing is yet to show whether it will do so.

RFE/RL has reported that for the early October inauguration of the road, China did not send representatives or officially acknowledge the event. The militarised boundary remained firmly shut, with images from the inauguration showing Chinese security cameras watching from behind razor wire.

Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at China’s Lanzhou University, told RFE/RL that the chances of Beijing opening the mountain pass border checkpoing any time soon “are extremely low.”

“Afghanistan's economy is very small and its value to China is negligible,” Zhu reportedly said, adding: “Meanwhile, the financial costs and security risks associated with opening the route would be substantial.” Afghanistan’s main exports to China are pine nuts, dried apricots and gemstones.

The Wakhan Corridor is a narrow, protruding strip of land in northeastern Afghanistan, sandwiched between China, Pakistan and Tajikistan.

The 350-kilometre (217-mile) mountain valley is nestled high in the Pamir Mountains in the province of Badakhshan. The width of this rugged strip of land dividing Tajikistan from Pakistan is just 13 km (eight miles) in places. Likely once trodden by luminaries including Alexander the Great and Marco Polo, its potential is fascinating.

If the high valley was made generally accessible and developed for modern trade flows, it would serve as a fabulous, even stupendous, link between Central, South and East Asia. Landlocked Central Asia would finally gain a clear road into Pakistan and thus the access to the ocean sought for so long by the region, Pakistani commerce would enjoy a short path into Central Asia and Afghanistan would have a direct trade passage into China. It would also become a route to the world’s second largest economy likely favoured by Iran.

In opening up corridors for international trade, in this part of the world, China’s chosen path has diverged from Wakhan, instead concentrating on the utility provided by the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It stretches from Kashgar in Xinjiang, across the Karakoram mountain range on China’s border with Pakistan and through to the Pakistani strategic deep-water port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.

In Beijing’s thinking, Afghanistan and Central Asia should enjoy access to CPEC infrastructure via link-through routes opened up on Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan, but this concept runs counter to the ambitions of the Taliban to conduct trade with China through Afghanistan’s own sole border with its giant neighbour at the end of the Wakhan Corridor.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/taliban-complete-afghanistan-road-to-china-but-beijing-keeps-border-firmly-shut-479103/

🇨🇳🇬🇭 China’s Huayou acquires Ghana lithium project rights, assumes $66mn funding commitment

China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt has completed the acquisition of Elevra Lithium’s interests in Ghana’s Ewoyaa lithium project, assuming rights to a 22.5% interest in Atlantic Lithium’s Ghanaian lithium portfolio, including Ewoyaa, and an obligation to fund up to $66mn in outstanding development expenditure.

Under the existing project agreements, Huayou will provide up to $66mn in outstanding expenditure under a $70mn sole-funding commitment. Subject to those agreements, the funding would earn Huayou an additional 27.5% interest in Atlantic Lithium’s Ghanaian portfolio, taking its total interest to 50%. Subsequent development costs would be shared equally between the partners.

The completed project transaction comes as Huayou pursues a separate acquisition of Atlantic Lithium, valued at approximately $210mn, or about $0.25 per share in cash, under an agreement announced in May. Huayou chairman and president Chen Hongliang said at the time that the deal “complements our existing battery metal mining operations in Africa”.

The proposed takeover would give Huayou control of Atlantic Lithium itself, potentially consolidating the private-sector interests in Ewoyaa currently covered by the joint-venture arrangements.

Ewoyaa is intended to become Ghana’s first commercial lithium mine, producing spodumene concentrate for further processing into lithium chemicals used in rechargeable batteries.

Ghana’s Parliament ratified the project’s mining lease in March 2026, the first lithium mining lease to be granted and ratified in the country, following the granting of environmental and mine operating permits in 2024.

Ewoyaa’s development comes as Ghana prepares restrictions on exports of unprocessed minerals by 2030. President John Dramani Mahama said on October 19 that investors seeking access to the country’s bauxite, manganese, iron and lithium would face processing obligations under a phased ban, although mineral-specific deadlines and detailed regulations have yet to be published.

Because Ewoyaa is designed to produce spodumene concentrate rather than battery-grade lithium chemicals, Huayou’s immediate commitment is to advance the existing mining project under its inherited funding obligations, rather than establish downstream lithium refining in Ghana.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/china-s-huayou-acquires-ghana-lithium-project-rights-assumes-66mn-funding-commitment-479226/

🇫🇷 Ex-director of the Direction générale de la Sécurité extérieure (DGSE), Pierre Brochand warns that the civil unrest seen in France in the last 2 months will "become more frequent and the violence will be more intense than before".

Speaking to the newspaper, Le Figaro, Pierre Brochand begins the interview by saying that the scale and intensity of the unrest was "uncommon but not unforeseeable".

In his view, the events of 17 October are not an isolated phenomenon. It distinguishes the riots triggered after an incident with the police (2005 race riots, the 2023 race riots caused by the death of Nahel Merzouk), the recurrent violence on certain dates (New Year, 14th July, Halloween marked by explosions caused by fireworks and firecrackers) and those that are grafted on demonstrations related to social or political issues. He classifies the October unrest in this third category and insists on the extent of the looting.

Regarding the looting, Pierre Brochand believes that “a huge red line has been crossed”. Above all, he warns: “Eruptions of violence should reoccur, with increased frequency and intensity.” He further stressed that the intensity and recurrence of looting "acts like a bank run during a monetary crisis" for social trust and "once set in motion, the process becomes very difficult to halt once it passes a certain threshold".

Brochand criticised the French press who dismisses the rioting as "an opportunistic transfer of wealth" warning that the motivation of the "youths of the banlieues" is to "take from the coloniser what the latter allegedly dispossessed their ancestors of".

Trying to find the root cause of the unrest, Brochand points to the ideology of the May 1968 riots which emancipated the individual in French society and turned Charles de Gaulle and the nation state he sought to build into the principal enemy for threatening to take away the rights of the individual and the "responsibility" nation states carry for past tragedies (never again).

"Without realising it, we have undermined that indispensable foundation of social peace: the state’s monopoly on legitimate violence. We have ceaselessly stripped the sovereign – through legislative and judicial erosion – of its legal, moral and physical prerogatives. Today we are lamenting this unilateral disarmament. It is a very steep slope to climb back up, for in the meantime it has fostered a strong sense of impunity amongst malevolent forces" added the former DGSE director.

Discussing the social forces responsible for the unrest, the former foreign intelligence official describes an alliance of circumstance between ultra-leftist activists and part of the "youth of the banlieue/suburbs". Paraphrasing former Chinese premier, Zhou Enlai, Brochand added: "they sleep in the same bed, but do not share the same dreams", the leftist activists and the youths of the suburbs may riot together but at the end of the day, their goals are different. Brochand says that the leftists are a minority are manipulating the middle class youth who still is majority of European descent, although increasingly becoming Arabicised and Africanised, taking advantage of the increasing uncertainty facing contemporary teenagers and young adults. The violence, says the former director, is used by the leftists because its their only way to impose their views on the wider society and when it comes to violence, said Pierre Brochand, they heavily rely on the non-European youth.

On finding ways to combat future episodes of unrest, Pierre Brochand considers that the strengthening of the police system during the demonstrations of 24 October has allowed a better control of the situation, but doubts that it is enough in the longer term. He advocates for more centralisation and more power given to the state considering that the critical infrastructure on which France relies is too fragmented by being in the hands of many private operators. He proposes that judges hand over collective sentences to rioters rather than send to trial every rioter individually. He support expanding surveillance with facial recognition technology, AIs and communication between databases to speed up identification.

🔗 https://unwall.app/www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/des-eruptions-de-violence-devraient-se-reproduire-avec-une-frequence-et-une-intensite-accrue-l-analyse-exclusive-de-pierre-brochand-ancien-patron-de-la-dgse-20261026

🇫🇮🇳🇴🇷🇺🇪🇺 Putin's Call Divides Europe — VZGLYAD

"Driving a wedge between partners," "European leaders were furious" - the phone call between Putin, President Stubb, and Prime Minister Store sparked a heated debate in the Western press. Some describe Helsinki and Oslo's initiative as an attempt to maintain the EU's influence in the peace process, while others see it as a violation of the consensus on Ukraine.

European leaders criticized Stubb and Store for "acting alone," without European consensus. According to a source at The Telegraph, after this dialogue, the heads of EU countries may contact the President of Russia "left and right," without a common position. Another source at the newspaper said that without this contact, Europe risked being seen by the head of the White House as an obstacle to peace.

The German magazine Der Spiegel, analyzing the reaction of European countries to the actions of Helsinki and Oslo, also notes: the phone call to Putin "angered Europeans." "Unilateral actions by this pair are viewed with skepticism in Europe," the article states.

The British newspaper The Independent reports that European leaders "were furious" after politicians from Norway and Finland "broke tradition and directly called Putin on Tuesday." "This move drew criticism from their colleagues in other Nordic countries, who urged them to 'stick together' on the issue of Ukraine," the publication writes.

In this regard, the American newspaper The New York Times points out that in recent days, Trump's rhetoric has become increasingly favorable towards Russia, while he regularly criticizes the actions of Zelensky. The publication cites the "diesel deal" as an example. Against this backdrop, European leaders are trying to intervene in the peace process. They are pursuing at least two goals: to ensure that European interests are taken into account and to "protect" Ukraine from pressure, the article states.

Analysts believe that Stubb could become an important asset if Europe and the United States ever coordinate their approaches to Ukraine. However, even within the "unified European front" on Ukraine, there are cracks, according to Politico. Against this backdrop, the Norwegian newspaper VG emphasizes: "The Scandinavian dispute should be avoided." And observers at the Norwegian publication Aftenposten even criticized the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, for being dissatisfied with the phone talks.

The Finnish broadcasting company Yle views the conversation not only as an attempt to bring the Ukrainian conflict to a close, but also as a change in Finland's approach to relations with Russia. According to the publication, Stubb's decision opens up the possibility of restoring political dialogue after several years of virtually no contact.

🔗 https://t.me/vzglyad_ru/153652

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦🇧🇬 Russian drones struck a vessel 21 nautical miles off Cape Shabla, Bulgaria, around 4 hours ago becoming the 9th vessel to come under attack in the Black Sea this month.

The Container Ship — CONTSHIP JET — flying under the Liberian flag was struck inside Bulgaria's EEZ. It was coming from Haifa, Israel and was headed for the Romanian port of Constanța which acts as a dual export route for both Romanian and Ukrainian goods. The crew evacuated the vessel but it hasn't sunk.

🔗 GeoInsider

📍 🇾🇪 🇾🇪 Taiz 28 October - under a siege with no water / electricity. There are battles between AnsarAllah and the PLC Government at Jabal Han and Al Dbab to the west.

A local source says fighting has reached Jabal Sabar, which is one of the tallest mountains in Yemen.

📎 War Cube