🇺🇦 Ukraine faces 1mn fewer workers by 2030 assuming refugees return, KSE says

Ukraine's civilian workforce will shrink by about 1mn to 11.9mn by end-2030 even if refugees come home, the KSE Institute said in a report published on October 26.

The workforce falls in all of the think tank's scenarios, from 12.9mn at the start of 2026 to between 11.5mn and 12.2mn at the end of 2030, depending on how many refugees return and how quickly demobilised soldiers find civilian jobs. The working-age population, aged 15 to 64, falls from 19.6mn in 2026 to 16.4mn in 2040 in the moderate scenario, a drop of 16%, and by 26% in the pessimistic one.

"The main conclusion is that the workforce will shrink under all scenarios - even with substantial returns and the rapid integration of veterans," the authors wrote in the study, titled "Demography as a limit to Ukraine's post-war growth".

The numbers put a size on the problem Ukrainian companies already report every month. Staff shortages were the biggest obstacle for 69% of businesses surveyed in August, and Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev said in May that Ukraine would need 4.5mn more workers over the next decade to sustain 7% annual growth. KSE's projections underscore the scale of the challenge: post-war growth would depend on each worker producing far more.

KSE set its workforce projection against the GDP path in its own Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook Q4 2026, which has real GDP contracting by 0.6% in 2027 before growing by 4.4% in 2028 and 5% in 2029. With civilian employment falling by an average of 2.1% a year over the same period, output per civilian worker would have to rise by 5.1% a year, leaving it about 16% higher in 2029 than in 2026.

That is more than two and a half times the 1.9% a year Ukraine managed in 2011-2021, a pace the country last achieved during the boom years before 2008. Almost all of the effort falls in 2028 and 2029, when output per worker would need to grow by 7.2% and 6.4%. The 5.1% is a floor: GDP now includes a much larger defence sector, valued mainly through soldiers' pay, and that output will shrink as the army is demobilised.

Ukraine starts from a low base. Real GDP was 79% of its 2021 level in 2025 and KSE expects it to slip by a further 0.3% this year, while civilian employment averages about 11.5mn, or 75% of the 15.4mn in 2021. In 2021 a Ukrainian worker produced about $44,000 a year at purchasing power parity, the same as in Moldova, 79% of the Bulgarian level and about 54% of the level in Poland, Romania and Lithuania. Output per hour worked was roughly half of Poland's and a quarter of Germany's.

Less than 28 mn people lived in government-controlled Ukraine as of January 1, 2026, with a further 6.5mn Ukrainians abroad, of whom 5mn are war refugees and 1.5mn other migrants. The resident population within today's front lines has fallen by about 4.3mn, or 13%, since the start of 2022, mostly through emigration, and deaths have outnumbered births by about 1.2mn. More than a fifth of residents are aged 65 or over, and there are 114 women for every 100 men.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-faces-1mn-fewer-workers-by-2030-even-if-refugees-return-kse-says-479577/

🌡 🇺🇸 👨‍💻 Pentagon treating military base freezer malfunctions as suspected cyberattack, officials say

At least six on-base commissaries suffered late August freezer malfunctions, according to web updates

US military says cyber investigators are looking into the disruptions and are working with French law enforcement

Recent French cyberattack on freezers hit more than 350 supermarkets and could cost tens of millions of euros

The Fort Huachuca, Arizona, Facebook account explained on August 26 that its ​freezer "went into defrost mode where it heated up all the food. Trust us when we say it was 'spoiled.'"

Hackers have previously sabotaged fridges and freezers both in the United States and elsewhere.

Danfoss has said that, opens new tab, in 2022, hackers either targeted or broke into supermarkets in Russia and Israel that were using obsolete versions of its cold storage controllers. In December of last year, federal prosecutors in Los Angeles accused a Ukrainian woman of being part ⁠of a hacker ​group that knocked out the refrigeration at a meatpacking facility in 2024, ruining more than 2,000 pounds of meat.

The root ​problem was that controllers that were initially conceived as isolated interfaces that would be serviced by an in-person technician were increasingly being connected to the internet, said Bill Moore, the chief executive of industrial cybersecurity firm Xona Systems. Concerns about online exposure ​were not unique to cooling systems, he said, but they could have particularly serious consequences there.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-treating-military-base-freezer-malfunctions-suspected-cyberattack-2026-10-29/

🇸🇻⚔️🇭🇹 A new batch of Salvadoran troops landed in Port-au-Prince earlier today.

Haitian news sources report that despite the worsening weather, Salvadoran aircraft continue landing at and departing from Port-au-Prince.

The 1.000 troop deployment mentioned in news articles days before is likely an understatement with the number of Salvadoran troops deploying to Haiti set to increase to 2.000 by next Wednesday and up to 5.000 in the coming weeks.

Some Haitian officials are worried that Salvadoran troops would refuse to operate under the UN Security Council-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) and stay under Salvadorian command.

🔗 https://echojounal.net/malgre-move-tan-vol-kago-salvadoryen-yo-pa-sispann-ateri-nan-kapital-peyi-dayiti/

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Democratic senator, Chris Murphy, revealed he received a confidential briefing on the Trump Admin's plan to restart the war with Iran calling it "insane" and "destroying the U.S' commitment to rule of law"

While Murphy couldn't go into details about the plan without risking criminal penalties for disclosing classified information, the senator stated that the Pentagon was tasked by the White House to come up with a list of mostly civilian targets which the USAF is expected to target which Murphy said would lead to "the destruction of our [US'] commitment to rule of law" but coming short of calling it a "war crime".

Murphy also said that the White House plans for a "short and limited" series of strikes which the Democratic politician believes will be met by Iran with unprecedented escalation and prolong the war.

Recall that the IRGC through various Iranian medias made a number of threats that in response to a renewal of U.S. airstrikes, it will target subsea internet cables, AI infrastructure and data centers and even U.S. diplomats and politicians in response to previous US-Israeli attacks on Iranian diplomatic offices and Iranian public officials

🔗 Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT)

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡️ — Several ballistic missiles were launched from Riyadh in the latest barrage. Several surface-to-air missiles were launched from installations in the city.

At this time, the only things that can be confirmed is multiple interceptions above As Suwaidi neighborhood, southwestern Riyadh. There may be additional interception and impact sites I'm unaware of due to strict Saudi OPSEC measures preventing information from going out.

🇷🇺📞🇳🇴🇫🇮 Putin on his phone calls with the President of Finland and the Prime Minister of Norway:

🔶 Stubb and Støre emphasized at the beginning of the conversation that they were not representing the EU, but were calling "in a national capacity."

🔶 Russia supports any steps aimed at restoring full-fledged and constructive relations with European countries.

🔶 Many in Europe are only talking about preparing for war by 2030. "We are ready, but we do not want any war with Europe."

🔶 The EU will not be able to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, "and if it goes too far, there will be no winners at all."

🔶 Russia would not want a situation to develop in the Baltic Sea similar to that in the Strait of Hormuz, but it will respond to provocations.

@CIG_telegram

🗳 🇮🇱 📊 2026 Final Israeli Election Results Dashboard (Pending Verification)

📎 Israel Elects