/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
US officials are promoting a plan for Russia to resume natural gas sales to Europe via Ukraine’s pipelines, with a US intermediary, the Wall Street Journal reported on November 2, citing unnamed US, European and Ukrainian officials.
US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff promoted the idea during trips to Moscow and Kyiv in September. The proposal was put on the back burner last month after Ukraine paused strikes on Russian refineries under pressure from US President Donald Trump. Kiev has since resumed attacks, Bloomberg reported. The source account does not say that officials formally put the proposal back on the table, so this story describes the renewed promotion without asserting a formal revival.
Witkoff and Kushner first urged Kiev and European governments to resume Russian gas imports in October, and the European Commission rejected the idea within days. Routing Russian gas through a US intermediary could test how the EU’s legally binding phase-out applies to this arrangement. The regulation bars qualifying long-term Russian LNG contracts from January 1, 2027 and pipeline supplies from September 30, 2027, or November 1 if storage targets are not met. Its application to a US intermediary has not been established.
European capitals have so far closed ranks. “We should not buy anything that goes into Putin’s war chest, including Russian gas,” German Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche said on October 26, as Poland’s Finance and Economy Minister Andrzej Domanski ruled out any return to Russian gas at a Polish-German business forum in Warsaw. Slovakia is the outlier and has said it will keep buying Russian gas, and the Kremlin has urged Europe not to rule out a return.
The refinery pause that shelved the gas plan lasted about two weeks. Washington refused Kiev any reward for halting the strikes, and Ukraine broke the pause on October 30 when drones hit Rosneft's Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Samara region.
Relations between Washington and Kiev hit a low last month after Trump struck a Russian diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin, under which the US held off tightening sanctions on Russia in return for Moscow supplying limited volumes of diesel to the global market to cool prices.
European gas prices reached their highest in almost four years, with the Dutch TTF benchmark approaching €100 per MWh in late October as conflict in the Middle East disrupted Qatari LNG exports. EU storage was 74.89% full on October 29, against a five-year average of about 89.7% for late October. Germany’s tanks were 61.61% full, adding to concerns over its ability to refill storage over the summer.
Ukraine’s transit pipelines are intact, and flows could resume if a deal were reached. Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine stopped when the five-year transit agreement expired at the end of 2024 and Kyiv declined to renew it.
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bne IntelliNews
US revives push to sell Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine
US officials are promoting a plan for Russia to resume natural gas sales to Europe via Ukraine’s pipelines, with a US intermediary, the Wall Street ...
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📢 🇺🇦 🪖 Azov Corps Commander Denys Prokopenko on the situation near Kyiv, where Azov personnel allegedly held over a dozen newly mobilised men hostage:
"What is happening in the information space around the topic of events in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka satisfies all the requests of the Russians."
(...)
"Our state is waging a tough, bloody war for its existence. In this situation, we need to either defend the country on the front lines or help the front from the rear, rather than staging provocations and playing into the enemy's hands."
📎 AMK Mapping
"What is happening in the information space around the topic of events in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka satisfies all the requests of the Russians."
(...)
"Our state is waging a tough, bloody war for its existence. In this situation, we need to either defend the country on the front lines or help the front from the rear, rather than staging provocations and playing into the enemy's hands."
📎 AMK Mapping
Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Keixooki)
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Mister Iowan)
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Forwarded from NOVA
Media is too big
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Guest speaker Warren Balogh’s speech “The End of MAGA and the Future of White America” delivered at the NOVA Fall Festival 2026.
Media is too big
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“The purpose of a system is what it does.”
📎 SSmega Clips
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Keixooki)
Neither the U.S. nor Iran will budge on a diplomatic level.
@GeoPWatch
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Keixooki)
Geopolitics Watch
An Iranian Official told Reuters that Iran will not accept excessive U.S. demands and that Iran is prepared to respond forcefully to U.S. strikes, in the region and beyond.
@GeoPWatch
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Keixooki)
Iran is an evil nation that has killed many of our people. Soleimani is an example. He’s no longer with us, but they have killed many of our people.
We cannot let them have a nuclear weapon, and we won't.
@GeoPWatch
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Keixooki)
We might have to go after Pickaxe, but that's not a big deal. We can do it in literally one hour.
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
The Kanev Hydroelectric Power Plant in Kanev, Cherkasskaya Oblast, was struck by ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
The Zmiyovskaya Thermal Power Plant in Slobozhanskoe, Kharkov Oblast, was struck by ~5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
The TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant in Kharkov City was struck by ~4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and ~6 KAB glide-bombs.
The Pridneprovskaya Thermal Power Plant in Dnepropetrovsk was struck by as many as 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 4 Kn-23 ballistic missiles.
The Krivoy Rog Thermal Power Plant in Zelenodolsk, Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, was struck by ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
The Ladyzhin Thermal Power Plant in Ladyzhin, Vinnitskaya Oblast, was struck by ~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
These power plants + additional ones in western Ukraine are expected to be targeted by up to 70 Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles over the next 2 hours.
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In addition to Russia's massive missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure across Ukraine, at least 17 Geran-2 drones attacked the Vylkove and Izmail Ports along the Danube River in southern Odesa Oblast.
Prior to this, the Zatoka Bridge was attacked by 2-3 UMPB-5 jet-powered glide-bombs, 2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and approximately 7 S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Prior to this, the Zatoka Bridge was attacked by 2-3 UMPB-5 jet-powered glide-bombs, 2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and approximately 7 S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev was a no-show at the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit, which concluded on October 30. Aliyev’s snub of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan signals that tension between Baku and Ankara is running deeper than previously believed.
A feud between the two long-time allies, whose relations have often been characterised as “one nation, two states,” erupted in mid-October initially revolving around criticism from Turkish public figures of new regulations adopted in Azerbaijan that curtailed religious expression in public schools, effectively banning the wearing of hijabs.
Erdogan on October 25 fired an aide who initiated the hijab kerfuffle, causing many observers to believe that bilateral relations would quickly get back on track. But no.
Aliyev’s decision to skip the summit in Ankara shows the spat is far from over. And where it goes from here is hard to say, given the complexity of the underlying issue dividing the two states.
Aliyev’s absence embarrassed Erdogan, undermining his central message of unity among Turkic states. The summit’s theme was: Turkic Century: Unity in Language, Thought and Action.
In comments to the leaders of other Turkic states at the summit, including the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Erdogan pointed to the “family photo” of participants taken to commemorate the event, saying it “symbolises both our loyalty to our past and our determination to build our common future together”.
Such rhetoric rang a bit hollow with Aliyev not in the picture. The Azerbaijani delegation was led by Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, who made no reference to the bilateral spat while praising Turkish hospitality.
Commentaries published in the tightly state-controlled Azerbaijani press indicate that the fulcrum of division between Baku and Ankara is now Israel, not the hijab controversy.
One editorial published on October 29 by Minval indicated that the criticism coming out of Ankara over the hijab issue triggered long-simmering resentment in Azerbaijan connected to Baku’s close strategic relationship with Israel, which supplied military technology, including drones, that helped the Azerbaijani military regain full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Turkey has been a frequent and sometimes fierce critic of Israeli policy in Gaza.
“For the past three years, Azerbaijan has repeatedly become a target, with its cooperation with Israel invariably the main focus of the attacks,” the editorial stated. “Baku is essentially being asked to subordinate its foreign policy to foreign perceptions and expectations.”
The editorial, which can be viewed as reflecting the thinking of official Baku, alleged that Azerbaijan had long been subjected to a “torrent of accusations and humiliation” over its strong relationship with Israel, fuelled by Turkish media and social media. It did not mention Erdogan by name but suggested he was responsible for letting the situation get out of hand.
“Official Ankara intervened too late,” it added. “If the necessary steps had been taken in time, if the authorities had not stood by, the situation might not have escalated so far. But now, an unhealthy attitude and an unfavourable atmosphere have developed in Turkey toward Azerbaijan.”
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bne IntelliNews
Azerbaijan and Turkey: Feud deepens over differences on Israel
Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev was a no-show at the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit, which concluded on October 30. Aliyev’s snub of ...
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Russia's military budget is a fifth of America's in dollars, but counted in artillery shells rather than dollars, it buys close to 90% as much.
And the Kremlin is spending big - and more than it can afford. Nominally, Russia's military spending this year is on course to approach RUB17 trillion ($211bn), which is as much as RUB5 trillion ($62bn) more than it initially planned to spend at the start of this year.
While official figures are opaque, the government's budget plan had pencilled in RUB12.1 trillion ($150bn) for "national defence" in 2026, while SIPRI estimated total actual planned military expenditure at RUB14.9 trillion ($185bn), or 6.3% of GDP, in March. Next year's 2027 budget will lift defence spending again to RUB17.1 trillion ($212bn), or a whopping 41% of all spending.
It's a lot of money, but it is still only a fifth of what the $961.6bn the Pentagon requested for FY2026. And if President Donald Trump gets his way, that will rise to $1.5 trillion next year.
However, spend a dollar in Russia and it goes a lot further than one spent in the US as wages and input costs are a lot lower. Consequently, economists prefer to compare PPP (purchase power parity) adjusted spending that takes this difference in price into account.
At the Bank of Russia's official rate of RUB80.56 to the dollar, RUB17 trillion ($211bn) adjusted for PPP Russia's defence spending is worth about $574bn - not 22% of US spending but close to 60% of the US figure - still a big gap, but may be enough to keep Russia in the game if it went to war with the US.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies made the same kind of adjustment in its Military Balance 2025, valuing Russia's 2024 defence spending of RUB13.1 trillion ($163bn) at $462bn in PPP terms - more than the EU and the UK combined that would be in the frontline if war in Europe really does break out.
The story doesn’t stop there as even the PPP adjustment flatters the US. The PPP adjustment is an aggregate adjustment to the value of the currency that takes everything into account, but military production is very specific. The difference between what a dollar spent in the market can buy you in the market is not the same as what it pays for in Russia’s drone factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan or the artillery shell plants in the depths of Siberia.
On the flip side, the US defence sector is bloated, and its products are, in comparative terms, badly overpriced. Instead of comparing dollar-for-adjusted dollars, it makes more sense to compare the cost of production of like-with-like. A dollar of Pentagon money buys fewer shells, tanks and jets than a dollar's worth of rubles does in Russia. Counting the military spending in terms of "artillery shell production units" then Russia's spending on the weapons it actually uses in its war in Ukraine is just under 90% of US spending.
Artillery shell units are the basic comparison as everything that goes into making the Soviet-era standard 152mm shell is Russian: the metal, the gunpowder, the power, the labour. One shell costs an estimated $1000 to make, according to defence publication Militarnyi, whereas the Nato equivalent 155mm shell costs $4000 to make in the US, according to consultancy Bain & Company. The PPP adjustment implies the Russian shell should be about 2.7-times cheaper, but the actual difference is Russian shells are four-times cheaper to make than American shells.
If the war were entirely about shelling the enemy then Russia and the US spending is almost on a par.
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