Forwarded from White Papers
Across all age groups, even boomers, Republicans prefer energizing the base over moderating ideology to appeal to a wider coalition.
🔗 Source
🔗 Source
The God Gap only exists among white Americans. Huge differences in beliefs, attendance, and affiliation. Almost none among nonwhites.
📎 Ryan Burge
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Forwarded from Keith Woods
Reflections on the blue tsunami, the failures of maga, and the dead end of slopulism for the right.
Why the right needs a generational overhaul:
https://www.keithwoods.com/p/slopulism
Why the right needs a generational overhaul:
https://www.keithwoods.com/p/slopulism
Keithwoods
The End of MAGA
What comes after slopulism?
Forwarded from White Papers
Demographics is destiny.
Texas's White share of the electorate dropped by 12 points since 2020 and are now a minority at 46%.
But what explains Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, NC and SC?
* In Ohio, Vivek deliberately antagonized the base.
* In Iowa, Ashley Hinson tells young men who are facing record inflation, skyrocketing housing costs, and an abysmal job market to just pull their bootstraps harder.
*In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Darlene Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham who flew to Israel in October 2023 and urged the Israeli army to invade Gaza and “Do whatever the hell you have to do to defend yourself. Level the place.”
Republicans failed to deliver legislatively for their White base while they had a trifecta.
Republicans took advantage of their default party loyalty. But they defected.
🔗 We review the midterm results here on Substack
🔗 Or at our website
Texas's White share of the electorate dropped by 12 points since 2020 and are now a minority at 46%.
But what explains Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, NC and SC?
* In Ohio, Vivek deliberately antagonized the base.
* In Iowa, Ashley Hinson tells young men who are facing record inflation, skyrocketing housing costs, and an abysmal job market to just pull their bootstraps harder.
*In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Darlene Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham who flew to Israel in October 2023 and urged the Israeli army to invade Gaza and “Do whatever the hell you have to do to defend yourself. Level the place.”
Republicans failed to deliver legislatively for their White base while they had a trifecta.
Republicans took advantage of their default party loyalty. But they defected.
🔗 We review the midterm results here on Substack
🔗 Or at our website
Forwarded from Warren Balogh
Telegram
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Demographics is destiny.
Texas's White share of the electorate dropped by 12 points since 2020 and are now a minority at 46%.
But what explains Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, NC and SC?
* In Ohio, Vivek deliberately antagonized the base.
* In Iowa, Ashley…
Texas's White share of the electorate dropped by 12 points since 2020 and are now a minority at 46%.
But what explains Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, NC and SC?
* In Ohio, Vivek deliberately antagonized the base.
* In Iowa, Ashley…
Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇺🇸⚡️- By pure volume sold off, today was the worst trading day for the S&P 500 since March 13, 2020. The declaration of the Covid lockdowns.
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Yesterday, the military command for the Middle East unveiled its new podcast, “Inside CENTCOM,” featuring its commander, Navy Admiral Brad Cooper — the man most responsible for the Strait of Hormuz crisis and skyrocketing gas prices.
The timing couldn’t be more hilarious. The entire country just voted against his Iran war, and there’s Cooper, the architect, grinning and chatting up his workout routine, love of french fries and basketball. Asked about Operation Epic Fury, he says only that “I just couldn’t be prouder” and how even amidst the war he guards the “sanctity” of his workouts.
Considering that Cooper never bothered to make keeping the Strait of Hormuz open an objective of the war — which sent oil prices soaring — maybe he should’ve spent less time working out. But judging from his breezy podcast appearance, Cooper sleeps like a baby.
“Let me be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran, and it remains open for business,” Cooper said last month in a video infomercial for the war. It was on the same day oil hit $110 a barrel. It was his George W. Bush “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” moment. But Bush, at least, was a politician. Cooper is a uniformed officer, and the whole point of a uniformed officer is that they are supposed to stay out of politics.
Meanwhile, all the knives are out for Pete Hegseth. Good riddance.
But Cooper is even more responsible for your gas prices. He wrote the war plan, oversaw the strategy and the implementation, and even directed the day-to-day operation.
“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist,” the saying goes. Cooper is a perfect example. Most Americans couldn’t pick him out of a lineup, and these days, that’s how the Pentagon brass likes it.
No matter what the mess in the White House or the nation’s capital, the uniformed military likes to say that it is above politics. Generals and admirals, the story goes, give their best “military advice” and just report the facts about their area of responsibility.
When the brass wants the public to like them, they roll out PR, like a podcast about French fries and free throws. But behind the scenes, they’re keenly aware of who’s in power and what their bosses want to hear, and they have politics of their own. (If you have any doubt that the brass has politics, look at Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, fired by Hegseth in August 2025. On Tuesday, she won a House seat in South Carolina as a Democrat.)
To understand how Cooper could pass off ‘Hormuz is open for business!’ as objective fact, rather than what it plainly was — a nakedly political statement defending the Iran war, and one backing Trump and burnishing his own record — you have to understand what his position as CENTCOM commander entails.
While the Secretary of Defense is responsible for overseeing war plans, it’s the uniformed military that’s responsible for writing them. By law, this task falls to the “combatant” commander, which in the case of Iran, is Brad Cooper.
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Kenklippenstein
The Real Architect of the Iran Mess
Hint: it’s not Hegseth
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
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"There was a worry that if Democrats only had a narrow majority, Hakeem Jeffries would be held hostage to this dozen or so Squad-like block of virulently anti-Israel, outspokenly socialist members of Congress that got elected in these very deep blue districts," Kraushaar tells David Zalik of the pro-Israel IF NOT US podcast.
"Now the margin is so large that they're not going to have the same leverage and the same power that they could have if it was a much closer margin."
"So paradoxically, the bigger the wave, the more decisive the victory for Democrats, means there are a lot more Democrats representing conservative-minded areas where extremism does not sell."
Are Democrats going to accept being ruled by AIPAC Shakur and Chuck "My Job is to Keep the Left Pro-Israel" Schumer?
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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
Russia continued their large-scale attacks on Ukraine using Geran-2 drones, Geran-4/5 jet-drones, and S8000 Banderol cruise missiles over the last 24 hours, striking targets across the country.
At least 350 drones were used in total. Compared to the previous 24 hours, the strikes were more spread out. There was a continued focus on attacking the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Odesa Oblast, and Kyiv Oblast areas. Attacks on Kharkiv Oblast decreased, while Sumy and Chernihiv Oblast saw an increase. There were also some individual strikes on targets in Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Rivne Oblasts.
During the last 24 hours, explosions were heard in/near the following locations:
- Smotrych, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Dunaivtsi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Sarny, Rivne Oblast
- Korosten, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Stepanivka, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Voronovytsya, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Trostyanets, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Nemyriv, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Sharhorod, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Bratslav, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Haisyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Tul'chyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Ladyzhyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Teplyk, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kryzhopil, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Chechelnyk, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Approximately 2 different locations in Vinnytsia City
- Serbka, Odesa Oblast
- Dobroslav, Odesa Oblast
- Vyzyrka, Odesa Oblast
- Odesa City
- Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast
- Karolino-Buhaz, Odesa Oblast
- Marazliivka, Odesa Oblast
- Starokozache, Odesa Oblast
- Trykhatky, Odesa Oblast
- Vylkove, Odesa Oblast
- Bashtanka, Mykolaiv Oblast
- Zlynka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Dmytrivka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Vasylivka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Pavlysh, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Korsun'-Shevchenkivs'kyi, Cherkasy Oblast
- Chornobai, Cherkasy Oblast
- Kaniv, Cherkasy Oblast
- Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Zlatoustivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- P'yatykhatky, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Saksahan, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Tytorove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Slavhorod, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Rozdory, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Approximately 2 different locations in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Mykolaivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Approximately 2 different locations in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Novooleksandrivska, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Aviators'ke, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Approximately 7 different locations in Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Kushuhum, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Approximately 4 different locations in Zaporizhzhia City
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast
- Novodonetske, Donetsk Oblast
- Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast
- Ukrainske, Kharkiv Oblast
- Ivanivka, Kharkiv Oblast
- Eskhar, Kharkiv Oblast
- Kharkiv City
- Tokari, Sumy Oblast
- Romny, Sumy Oblast
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast
- Approximately two locations in Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast
- Sumy City
- Varva, Chernihiv Oblast
- Mala Divytsya, Chernihiv Oblast
- Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast
- Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast
- Honcharivske, Chernihiv Oblast
- Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast
- Horodnya, Chernihiv Oblast
- Yahotyn, Kyiv Oblast
- Bohuslav, Kyiv Oblast
- Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
- Uzyn, Kyiv Oblast
- Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast
- Brovary, Kyiv Oblast
- Hlevakha, Kyiv Oblast
- Vishen'ki, Kyiv Oblast
- Khotiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Rozhny, Kyiv Oblast
- Vyshhorod, Kyiv Oblast
- Krasyatychi, Kyiv Oblast
- Makariv, Kyiv Oblast
- Approximately 7 different locations in Kyiv City
The primary targets were again energy and railway infrastructure, with electrical substations and thermal power plants across Ukraine being hit even more than in yesterday's attacks.
At least 350 drones were used in total. Compared to the previous 24 hours, the strikes were more spread out. There was a continued focus on attacking the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Odesa Oblast, and Kyiv Oblast areas. Attacks on Kharkiv Oblast decreased, while Sumy and Chernihiv Oblast saw an increase. There were also some individual strikes on targets in Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Rivne Oblasts.
During the last 24 hours, explosions were heard in/near the following locations:
- Smotrych, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Dunaivtsi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Sarny, Rivne Oblast
- Korosten, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Stepanivka, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Voronovytsya, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Trostyanets, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Nemyriv, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Sharhorod, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Bratslav, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Haisyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Tul'chyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Ladyzhyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Teplyk, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kryzhopil, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Chechelnyk, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Approximately 2 different locations in Vinnytsia City
- Serbka, Odesa Oblast
- Dobroslav, Odesa Oblast
- Vyzyrka, Odesa Oblast
- Odesa City
- Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast
- Karolino-Buhaz, Odesa Oblast
- Marazliivka, Odesa Oblast
- Starokozache, Odesa Oblast
- Trykhatky, Odesa Oblast
- Vylkove, Odesa Oblast
- Bashtanka, Mykolaiv Oblast
- Zlynka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Dmytrivka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Vasylivka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Pavlysh, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Korsun'-Shevchenkivs'kyi, Cherkasy Oblast
- Chornobai, Cherkasy Oblast
- Kaniv, Cherkasy Oblast
- Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Zlatoustivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- P'yatykhatky, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Saksahan, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Tytorove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Slavhorod, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Rozdory, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Approximately 2 different locations in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Mykolaivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Approximately 2 different locations in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Novooleksandrivska, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Aviators'ke, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Approximately 7 different locations in Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Kushuhum, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Approximately 4 different locations in Zaporizhzhia City
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast
- Novodonetske, Donetsk Oblast
- Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast
- Ukrainske, Kharkiv Oblast
- Ivanivka, Kharkiv Oblast
- Eskhar, Kharkiv Oblast
- Kharkiv City
- Tokari, Sumy Oblast
- Romny, Sumy Oblast
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast
- Approximately two locations in Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast
- Sumy City
- Varva, Chernihiv Oblast
- Mala Divytsya, Chernihiv Oblast
- Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast
- Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast
- Honcharivske, Chernihiv Oblast
- Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast
- Horodnya, Chernihiv Oblast
- Yahotyn, Kyiv Oblast
- Bohuslav, Kyiv Oblast
- Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
- Uzyn, Kyiv Oblast
- Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast
- Brovary, Kyiv Oblast
- Hlevakha, Kyiv Oblast
- Vishen'ki, Kyiv Oblast
- Khotiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Rozhny, Kyiv Oblast
- Vyshhorod, Kyiv Oblast
- Krasyatychi, Kyiv Oblast
- Makariv, Kyiv Oblast
- Approximately 7 different locations in Kyiv City
The primary targets were again energy and railway infrastructure, with electrical substations and thermal power plants across Ukraine being hit even more than in yesterday's attacks.
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
According to my information, Ukrainian forces have been making progress in two different areas here, slowly pushing the Russians back away from the Oskol River and alleviating pressure on the town of Borovaya from the north. This could also open up opportunities to unblock the northern Oskol bridgehead from the south in the future, where-in they could potentially reach Kupyansk-Uzlovoy from the south.
In the west, Ukrainian forces were able to clear out the approaches to Boguslavka and Novoplatonovka from earlier Russian infiltrations, and initiated counterattacks eastwards towards the village of Borovskaya Andreyevka. They also advanced south from the Novaya Kruglyakovka area towards Borovskaya Andreyevka, recapturing a series of trench fortifications, and officially eliminating the Russian salient between the Lozovaya and Oskol Rivers.
In the east, Ukrainian assault groups recaptured the village of Zelyoni Gai after a little over a week of fighting, and began pushing further north. They also secured the forested gullies east of the settlement and began infiltrating Vishnyovoe, which, according to Russian channel Rybar, is currently in the grey-zone, along with the fields north of the village.
Important disclaimer: this is only the information I have been explicitly told by my sources that I am allowed to make public. There have been a number of additional advances made in this sector that I have to wait before publishing in order to comply with Ukraine's OPSEC measures, or until open source information about them surfaces. The frontline shown on this map is very approximate and delayed, in order to prevent giving away targeting data about Ukrainian positions to the Russians.
Contrary to the main Lyman counteroffensive, there is almost no open source information to map these counterattacks with, which means I have to comply with Ukraine's OSPEC and informational campaigns as I am using exclusive information from sources on the ground to map this. The only open source information I used for this update was the recent geolocations showing Ukrainian soldiers being hit east of Zelyoni Gai, and Rybar's recent map update portraying Vishnyovoe as in the grey-zone.
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Donetsk governor, Vadim Filashkin (Ukrainian controlled areas), stated that over 60% of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast will not have any heating this winter due to the sustained Russian bombing campaign targeting infrastructure.
The biggest efforts are underway in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, where local authorities are attempting to prepare for the heating season, prioritising these last two regional centres over the remaining towns and villages still under Ukrainian control. Areas too close to the frontline - which by now is a large portion of the remnants of Donetsk Oblast - will be largely ignored due to the dangers of even being there.
New resilience points and heating points are being prepared; firewood, stoves, and other necessities are being prepared; and widespread evacuations of civilians from the region are taking place.
Filashkin reports that the number of civilians still living in Kramatorsk and the surrounding areas has decreased to around 23,000, while around 22,000 remain in the Slavyansk area.
He reports that there are not many people who want to leave Donetsk Oblast anymore, and that some are moving from Kramatorsk to Slavyansk rather than into areas further from the frontline.
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Fighting has since shifted to the Novodanilovka area, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to increase their presence within the grey-zone and dislodge Russian forces from the southern half of the village. A stalemate remains in Malaya Tokmachka, with Ukrainian forces controlling approximately half of the town.
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Its either the Pridneprovsky, Krivoy Rog, or Ladyzhin thermal power plant in Dnepropetrovskaya/Vinnytskaya Oblasts.
@CIG_telegram
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Media is too big
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Local officials also warn that problems with sewage and water may soon arise as the water and sewage pumps just like every other residence, business and administrative building rely on backup generators hidden in basements which run on diesel or gasoline
@CIG_telegram
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
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At least 40 dead and wounded civilians have been reported by Houthi-run Al-Masirah.
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@CIG_telegram
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
Sources inside the Chinese Communist Party told French outlet, Intelligence Online, that the CCP has downgraded the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to an "ordinary trading partner" but hasn't made public this decision yet.
This choice comes in response to long-standing grievances held by Beijing against Kabul. Chief among these is Kabul's refusal to hand over Uyghur refugees in Afghanistan. The CCP was also deeply irritated by the Taliban regime's decision in recent years to cut ties with several Chinese investors, whose performance was deemed below expectations in relation to their contractual commitments. For example, in June 2025, Kabul terminated the 25-year contract signed with Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas (CAPEIC). This $540m contract focused on oil extraction in the Amu Darya basin in the north of the country.
Meanwhile, while Russia became the first country to officially recognise the Taliban regime in July 2025, sources at Intelligence Online have confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been considering going back on that recognition, at the request of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in order to heighten pressure on Kabul. Putin and Xi now both share the view that the Taliban serve solely their own interests and that nothing can compel them to act against their will.
In recent months, the CCP and the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS, or Guoanbu) have authorised several attempts at tripartite dialogue with Kabul and Islamabad, involving academics, military personnel and civil servants, and including online meetings in cases where face-to-face meetings were impractical.
The CCP also brought together the Pakistani and Afghan delegations in Ürümqi, the capital of Xinjiang from 1 to 7 April, under the leadership of Liu Jinsong, then director general for the department of Asian affairs at the foreign ministry, and the special envoy for Afghan affairs, Yue Xiaoyong.
But according to several Afghan and Pakistani sources, China does not have a reputation in the region as a good mediator. The country's calls for harmonious coexistence and mutual understanding are not backed by the kind of economic incentives required to justify significant efforts. Meanwhile, as recently as March, Foreign Minister Wang Yi was still referring to Afghans and Pakistanis as inseparable brothers, a narrative that is beginning to be seen as counterproductive in the region.
The case of the Wakhan Corridor, a strip of land in the far north-east of Afghanistan, has been pivotal in fuelling this impasse between them. For the CCP, this road leading to Xinjiang has never been merely an infrastructure project, but a means of securing concessions on security matters.
By February 2025, the Chinese government was already making its investment conditional on three requirements, namely new mining rights, the protection of its nationals by its own forces, and the repatriation of the Uyghurs. The Taliban refused to concede on any of these points and merely provided information on the number of Uyghurs present in the country.
In the absence of a deal, Kabul has chosen to continue alone with the project. On 4 October, the regime inaugurated a 121-kilometre road between Sarhad-e Broghil and the Wakhjir Pass, financed from its own funds to the tune of €5.5m. On the Chinese side, no development has followed. In other words, the CCP is refusing to open the trade route until its security conditions are met, and thus the road effectively ends at the border.
Pakistan is profiting from the souring of relations between Beijing and Kabul and is now discreetly urging the Chinese to establish contact with the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) of former Afghan defense minister and Chief of Staff, Yasin Zia. The AFF is known to operate in Badakhshan Province bordering China.
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Intelligence Online
Afghanistan/China • Beijing discreetly downgrades Kabul to status of trading partner
China has quietly downgraded Afghanistan's Taliban government to the status of trading partner. Meanwhile, Russia, the first country to recognise the Taliban leadership, is now looking to suspend that recognition, at Beijing's request.