🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 At least four U.S. Air Force KC-135R/T aerial refueling aircraft arrived in Israel this morning, likely as part of a rotation, as around three have departed Ben Gurion Airport. Another arrived at NAS Sigonella under the callsign MOTOWN3.

🔗 EGYOSINT

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Military strikes have degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without resolving the underlying uncertainties. The program may be smaller and less operationally capable, but also more dispersed and opaque. Destroying Pickaxe would not, by itself, change that.

With renewed US strikes against Iran looking increasingly possible, attention has again turned to Pickaxe Mountain, the deeply buried complex near Natanz. What would another strike actually accomplish?

Pickaxe is believed to extend 80-100 meters (on the conservative side) beneath bedrock, considerably deeper than Fordow. Iran began developing the complex after sabotage at Natanz in 2020 as an effort to protect its nuclear infrastructure from US and Israeli strikes.

Israeli intelligence reportedly assessed that Iran moved thousands of advanced centrifuges and components into Pickaxe after the June 2025 war. This remains unverified publicly. Satellite imagery cannot establish what is underground/whether the equipment has been installed.

CSIS documented extensive construction and reinforcement in 2026, but imagery showed blocked entrances and little apparent activity. There is no public confirmation that enrichment has begun or that the site is operational.

Regardless of the activity at Pickaxe, it hardly represents the final or sole remnant of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran likely has dispersed some its centrifuges and there’s much we don’t know.

The main US option for deeply buried targets is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). Weighing 30,000 lb, it is GPS-guided and designed to penetrate hardened structures before detonating. But its effectiveness depends heavily on the material it encounters.

The GBU-57’s publicly cited penetration capability of roughly 60 meters needs qualification. This is not a demonstrated ability to penetrate 60 meters of granite. Its performance varies with the geological medium, and detailed assessments of its effectiveness remain classified

Fordow provides a useful but imperfect comparison. The US employed GBU-57s against the facility and its ventilation shafts in June 2025 but the extent of underground destruction is uncertain Pickaxe’s structural characteristics may differ considerably.

Another weapon recently discussed is the GBU-43/B MOAB. Unlike the GBU-57, the roughly 21,000-lb MOAB is principally a large air-blast weapon, carrying approximately 18,700 lb of explosive. It is not designed to penetrate deeply buried facilities.

But Pickaxe is not synonymous with Iran’s nuclear program. The 2025 strikes devastated its declared enrichment infrastructure, yet the location of its nuclear material, surviving centrifuge inventories and capacity to reconstitute enrichment remain uncertain.

🔗 https://fxtwitter.com/NicoleGrajewski/status/2118762688897589623

🇵🇱 Polish news sources report that cops have neutralised the attacker who was wearing tactical gear. Some police officers were injured in the shooting.

They describe the attack to be terroristic in nature making it the first terror attack on Polish territory since the interwar era.

@CIG_telegram

🇵🇱 A gunman carried out a shooting attack in the city of Krakow. At least 3 people were killed including the attacker.

The perpetrator apparently armed with a .223 Rem / 5.56x45mm AR-15 rifle (very likely a civilian variant) fitted with a COTS optical sight.

🔗 WarNoir

🇩🇪✡️ German Chancellor Merz said Muslim immigrants who refuse to acknowledge Germany's historical responsibility for the Holocaust must leave the country.

Speaking at a reception for Jewish athletes in Berlin, Merz said:

This historical responsibility of our country applies just as much to those who come here to Germany from Islamic countries.

And anyone who fails to abide by this must leave our country.

🔗 Clash Report