🖐 Macro Watch | Dec 29, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026

Year-end trading slows down due to global holidays, but a few key macro releases and the FOMC minutes could still spark market movement, especially for USD, bonds, and risk assets.

Here are the most crypto-relevant macro events to watch this week:

🗓 Monday, December 29

🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – 🕕 15:30
  💡 Consensus: -2.000M | Previous: -1.274M

🗓 Tuesday, December 30

🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes – 🕕 19:00

🗓 Wednesday, December 31

🏝 Global New Year’s Market Closures / Early Closes

🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI (Dec) – 🕕 01:30
  💡 Consensus: 49.4 | Previous: 49.2
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – 🕕 13:30
  💡 Consensus: 215K | Previous: 214K
🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Dec) – 🕕 14:45
  💡 Consensus: 39.5 | Previous: 36.3

🗓 Friday, January 2

🏖 Limited Trading / Holiday Closures Continue

🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec) – 🕕 14:45
  💡 Consensus: 51.8 | Previous: 51.8

🤔 Why it matters:
Even with thin holiday liquidity, the FOMC minutes mid-week and U.S. PMI data could create sharp but short-lived price swings. China’s PMI also provides an early signal for global manufacturing momentum heading into 2026.

👀 Expect lower liquidity and potentially higher volatility, especially around Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

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🖐 Macro Watch | Jan 5 – 11, 2026

The first full trading week of 2026 puts U.S. manufacturing, services, and labor market data in focus, alongside Eurozone inflation updates. With markets transitioning from holiday mode, liquidity and volatility are both set to rise.

Here are the most crypto-relevant macro events to watch this week:

🗓 Monday, January 5

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) – 🕕 15:00
  💡 Forecast: 48.3 | Previous: 48.2
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec) – 🕕 15:00
  💡 Forecast: 59.0 | Previous: 58.5

🗓 Tuesday, January 6

🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM - Dec) – 🕕 13:00
  💡 Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) – 🕕 14:45
  💡 Forecast: 52.9 | Previous: 54.1

🗓 Wednesday, January 7

🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (YoY - Dec) – 🕕 10:00
  💡 Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.1%
🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) – 🕕 13:15
  💡 Forecast: 47K | Previous: -32K
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) – 🕕 15:00
  💡 Forecast: 52.2 | Previous: 52.6
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Dec) – 🕕 15:00
  💡 Previous: 65.4
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) – 🕕 15:00
  💡 Forecast: 7.650M | Previous: 7.670M

🗓 Thursday, January 8

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – 🕕 13:30
  💡 Forecast: 216K | Previous: 199K

🗓 Friday, January 9

🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM - Dec) – 🕕 13:30
  💡 Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) – 🕕 13:30
  💡 Forecast: 57K | Previous: 64K
🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Dec) – 🕕 13:30
  💡 Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: 4.6%

🤔 Why it matters:
This week sets the tone for 2026 macro expectations. Weak manufacturing PMIs contrast with still-resilient services activity, while Friday’s NFP and wage data remain the ultimate test for Fed policy expectations. Eurozone CPI stability helps anchor ECB outlooks early in the year.

👀 Friday’s U.S. jobs report is the key volatility trigger, watch wages and unemployment together.

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