Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Preliminary estimates by BashaReport claim at least 221 Houthi fighters have been killed in action since large-scale fighting resumed on July.

Among the killed are one Major General (Hassan Hussein Ali Mutahhar), six Brigadier Generals, and 22 Colonels.

๐Ÿ”— Source

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿšจ - Alerts issued in Najran, Saudi Arabia.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿšจ - Alerts were also issued earlier in Abha and Jazan, Saudi Arabia, but they have since been lifted.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿšจ - Alerts issued in Najran, Saudi Arabia. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿšจ - Alerts have been lifted in Najran, Saudi Arabia.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ Iran claims to have shot down a USAF 'MQ-1C' drone over the Strait of Hormuz. @GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - The IRGC has published footage of the interception of a USAF "MQ-1C" UCAV using an Air Defense missile over the Strait of Hormuz near 'Hormozgan' of southern Iran earlier today.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ The fire north of Ahba, Saudi Arabia, appears to be spreading, as NASA's FIRMS continues to detect new fires (the latest 50 minutes ago). They are also unusually extreme, with one of them emitting over 1,090 MW of fire radiative power (FRP). @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ As of less than an hour ago, the fire north of Ahba continues to rage. It appears to be somewhat under control, as the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) was sharply decreased from its high of over 1,000 FRP.

The fire has been active for around 18 hours now.

@GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ The IRGC has published a first look at the captured U.S. UUV, identified as Anduril's advanced 'Dive LD'.

The drone appears to be in perfect condition, probably allowing Iranian scientists to reverse-engineer some of the technologies on board.

@GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ According to Anduril's own website, the Large Diameter Autonomous Undersea Vehicle (LD-AUV) is capable of performing IPOE, ISR, Mine Warfare and Precision Placement missions, which could give the IRGC a more solid control of the Strait of Hormuz.

It can also be used for pipeline and cable inspection, mineral detection, and environmental monitoring.


It's also posible that, eventually, a reverse-engineered version of the LD-AUV could make its way to the Houthis, giving the Iranian proxy control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ The 'DIVE LD' has a claimed endurance of up to 10 days at sea, and at a maximum depth of 6,000 meters.

The IRGC would most likely find this drone useful for surveillance and patrols on the SoH, but also for sabotaging
undersea cables. It's reportedly unable to deploy mines, but can contribute to mine-clearing operations.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf on the captured U.S. UUV:

Well, it seems the most modern U.S. intelligent UUV just had a 'Knock' on its door... from the IRGC Navy!


๐Ÿ“ It should be noted that the 'Dive-LD', although very advanced, is not the best UUV in the U.S. arsenal, with others such as the 'Remus 3000' or the 'Orca' XLUUV also contending for that honor.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ Reports of a Ballistic Missile launch from Jask, Iran towards the Strait of Hormuz.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters claim the U.S. threatened to target another three Iranian oil tankers, and warned they'd retaliate strongly against U.S. bases and interests in the region.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿšข โ€“ Reports of an explosion off Kharg Island appear to be related to a U.S. strike on an Iranian tanker.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿšข โ€“ Not one, but two Iranian tankers appear to have been hit off Kharg Island, and a third one was struck in Jask, in line with the American threat.

An Iranian retaliation is to be expected in the next hours.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - 8 U.S. Tankers are currently visible in the air over the region.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿšข โ€“ Not one, but two Iranian tankers appear to have been hit off Kharg Island, and a third one was struck in Jask, in line with the American threat. An Iranian retaliation is to be expected in the next hours. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - A U.S. Official to the Jerusalem Post has confirmed that U.S. airstrikes against Iranian Oil Tankers are currently underway, with renewed explosions reported.

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๐Ÿ”ผ๐Ÿ›ข โ€“ Brent crude oil has risen to almost $99 dollars per barrel as reports emerge that the U.S. struck more Iranian oil tankers. Last time that happened, Iran struck tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and now Tehran has threatened to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿšข โ€“ Iranian outlet Tasnim News confirmed at least one small tanker was targeted 4 nautical miles from Kharg Island. No casualties were reported and the crew is being evacuated.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - The IRGC has issued an urgent warning to tankers crew in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports, stating they will be targeted.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - The IRGC is claiming to have captured a U.S. Navy UUV in the Strait of Hormuz this morning. They are describing it as one of the US's most advanced unmanned underwater vehicles. The IRGC plans to show more of it on State TV within the coming hours.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Despite IRGC claims describing the Dive-LD captured today as one of the United Statesโ€™ โ€œmost advancedโ€ underwater drones, the Dive-LD is a conventional, commercially developed UUV designed heavily around commercially available off-the-shelf components.

โ–ถ๏ธ This is an important distinction. The Dive-LD is a capable and modern system, but affordability, modularity and ease of large scale production are central to its design. The U.S. possesses substantially more sophisticated and specialized undersea systems compared to the Dive-LD.

โ–ถ๏ธ Iranโ€™s description of the captured UUV as "one of Americaโ€™s most advanced" is substantially exaggerated.
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