Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ โ€“ UKMTO reported yet another Iranian attack against a vessel in the Omani route of the Strait of Hormuz.

A tanker was struck by one projectile, causing a fire that has since been controlled. The vessel is continuing its transit, and no casualties were reported.


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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡นโšก๏ธ- Recently, ENDF forces have begun taking back territory previously lost to Ugugumo and TDF rebels in the Afar region, along with pushing further north into the Tigray region.

โžก๏ธ In western Afar, Ethiopian soldiers have retaken the towns of Abala and Erebti from rebel forces. In Tigray, ENDF forces have captured the towns of Adi Aba Musa and Mehoni with fighting now situated south of Maychew.

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช โ€“ Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni PLC are preparing a large-scale offensive against Ansarullah, which could include a push for the Red Sea coast or a broader, multi-front offensive.

The operation is likely to kick off "in the coming weeks", and will involve Saudi air support but not forces on the ground. Sources said the operation could begin as late as after the U.S. midterm elections.

The U.S. is expected to keep providing intelligence for offensive and defensive operations, while European partners have ramped up defensive support for Riyadh.

The PLC is expected to moblizie up to 100,000 troops for the offensive, and Riyadh has reportedly concluded it cannot enter new negotiations with the Houthis while they control de Bab al-Mandab Strait.


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๐Ÿคฌ53โค16๐Ÿคก14๐Ÿ”ฅ11๐Ÿคฃ9๐Ÿคฎ53๐Ÿ‘2๐Ÿคฏ2๐Ÿ‘€2
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช โ€“ Pakistan has been aiding both Saudi Arabia and the PLC in their fight against Ansarullah (the Houthis) in Yemen, Reuters reported citing Western and Middle Eastern sources.

Pakistan has sent around 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia, some of them after the renewal of tensions between Riyadh and Sana'a, and Pakistani material support, including multiple types of military equipment, reached the PLC in at least four cargo planes.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ โ€“ UKMTO confirmed a second vessel was struck by Iran today.

There were no casualties reported, and the extent of the damage remains unknown.


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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ-Ansarullahโ€™s offensive around Taizz continues to see success with Houthi advances and infiltration attempts reported across multiple fronts southwest and southeast of the city, several important supply routes have also been severely impacted includingโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Over the last 24 hours, the front has become extremely fluid with fighting becoming especially intense around the town of Bani Umar as Ansarullah continues to attempt to cut key supply routes near the Al Samsara junction.

โžก๏ธ Despite numerous claims that Ansarullah entered As Safiyah and cut off the important Al Turbah road, newly released footage emerged of a reporter interviewing PLC forces in the center of the As Safiyah junction.

โžก๏ธ On the other hand further south Ansarullah forces were geolocated in the village of Ad Darahim northeast of Bani Umar, there are also reports of Ansarullah capturing Al Qasfah at Tawil and surrounding areas, although they remain unconfirmed and premature.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€“ The Omani pilot that tried to hijack a Flydubai aircraft earlier this week is cooperating with local authorities, and has been officially identified as 29-year-old Hamam al-Hammami.

Al-Hammami's plan was to crash the plane in Israeli territory, according to the investigation's results so far, and had already been flagged for radical views and grounded by Omani authorities. It remains unclear if Flydubai was aware of the risks when he was hired and assigned to the route to Israel.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Earlier today, two Iranian nationals were arrested in the United Kingdom and charged with planning a terrorist attack against Jewish people in Manchester.

London is also investigating a link between the men and a "third party", alleged to be Iran.

The scare comes just days after the RAF Fairford incident, and British authorities are likely to be placed on higher alert.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Trump on Iran having a nuclear weapon during one of his rallies:

Remember about the oil. You're paying a price... but boy is that a small price than what it would be if these lunatics were allowed to have a nuclear weapon and used it on Mobile, Alabama.


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โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - U.S. Senate Midterm Election Forecast.

The median outcome of the US Senate midterm election is the GOP to maintain 50 seats, with the Vice Presidential tiebreaker clinching the control of the Senate.


Despite President Trump's unpopularity, winning control of the Senate is still an uphill battle for the Democrats. To win 51 seats, the Dems need to complete all 4 of the followings, listed in the order of increasing difficulty.

1โƒฃ Defeat the 5-term centrist Senator Susan Collins (R) in Maine after the controversy surrounding the late withdrawal of the Democratic Primary winner Graham Platner.

2โƒฃ Elect the first Muslim American to the US Senate in Michigan.

3โƒฃ Flip Texas blue for the first time since 1994.

4โƒฃ Win either Ohio or Iowa, which President Trump won by 11.2% and 13.2% respectively in 2024.
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช - Saudi airstrikes are currently targeting Ansarallah in Sanaa.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ - Overnight 3 missiles and 2 drones entered Moldova and impacted across multiple districts.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ - Overnight 3 missiles and 2 drones entered Moldova and impacted across multiple districts. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด - Additionally, a drone impacted in Tulcea County, Romania causing a fire but no casualties. Romanian Ministry of Defense said they did not detect the drone on it's radar.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Explosions originating from the sea were heard on Qeshm Island.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ—๏ธ - An Air Ambulance carrying 6 people has gone missing off the coast of Nantucket, Massachusetts according to the U.S. Coast Guard. Search operations are underway.

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An Air Ambulance carrying 6 people has gone missing off the coast of Nantucket, Massachusetts according to the U.S. Coast Guard. Search operations are underway.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ—๏ธ - The Air Ambulance with callsign CGRJP had departed Bermuda for Boston this morning before losing contact with the FAA and disappearing from radar 1 hour and 20 minutes into it's flight.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Explosions originating from the sea were heard on Qeshm Island. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Renewed explosions heard from Qeshm island, coming from the sea.

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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡นโšก๏ธ- Following 10 days of renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia the Tigrayan capital of Mekele has fallen to ENDF control with TDF forces falling back toward the Eritrean border near Adwa.

โžก๏ธ Footage surfaced of ENDF along with TPF(Tigray Peace Force) inside Tigrays capital Mekele, surrounding towns east and south of the city including Maychew, Adi Gudom, and Ambalage have also all fallen to ENDF forces.
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡นโšก๏ธ โ€“ The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington D.C.-based think-tank, confirmed the capture of Mekele by the ENDF and the allied Tigray Peace Force.

Their assessment is that the ENDF did not face much resistance while taking Tigray's capital, as the TPLF withdrew west. Rumors that the TPLF leadership relocated to Adwa, around 160 kilometers northwest of Mekele, haven't been independently confirmed.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ The World Health Organization (WHO) warned of "devastating consequences" for Gaza due to a lack of life-saving medical supplies, sanitation equipment and fuel as winter approaches.

WHO representative Reinhilde Van De Weerdt criticized Israeli authorities for rejecting non-essential items, such as prosthetics, while demanding unimpeded access to prevent further delays in care.

Almost two million people face heightened risks of preventable disease, flooding, and cold due to a lack of shelter and damaged health infrastructure as winter approaches, almost a year into the "ceasefire" that has killed over 1,440 Gazans.


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