❗️🇺🇸 - U.S. Senate Midterm Election Forecast.

The median outcome of the US Senate midterm election is the GOP to maintain 50 seats, with the Vice Presidential tiebreaker clinching the control of the Senate.

Despite President Trump's unpopularity, winning control of the Senate is still an uphill battle for the Democrats. To win 51 seats, the Dems need to complete all 4 of the followings, listed in the order of increasing difficulty.

1⃣ Defeat the 5-term centrist Senator Susan Collins (R) in Maine after the controversy surrounding the late withdrawal of the Democratic Primary winner Graham Platner.

2⃣ Elect the first Muslim American to the US Senate in Michigan.

3⃣ Flip Texas blue for the first time since 1994.

4⃣ Win either Ohio or Iowa, which President Trump won by 11.2% and 13.2% respectively in 2024.

🇪🇹⚡️- Following 10 days of renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia the Tigrayan capital of Mekele has fallen to ENDF control with TDF forces falling back toward the Eritrean border near Adwa.

➡️ Footage surfaced of ENDF along with TPF(Tigray Peace Force) inside Tigrays capital Mekele, surrounding towns east and south of the city including Maychew, Adi Gudom, and Ambalage have also all fallen to ENDF forces.

🇪🇹⚡️ – The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington D.C.-based think-tank, confirmed the capture of Mekele by the ENDF and the allied Tigray Peace Force.

Their assessment is that the ENDF did not face much resistance while taking Tigray's capital, as the TPLF withdrew west. Rumors that the TPLF leadership relocated to Adwa, around 160 kilometers northwest of Mekele, haven't been independently confirmed.

@GeoPWatch

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 – The World Health Organization (WHO) warned of "devastating consequences" for Gaza due to a lack of life-saving medical supplies, sanitation equipment and fuel as winter approaches.

WHO representative Reinhilde Van De Weerdt criticized Israeli authorities for rejecting non-essential items, such as prosthetics, while demanding unimpeded access to prevent further delays in care.

Almost two million people face heightened risks of preventable disease, flooding, and cold due to a lack of shelter and damaged health infrastructure as winter approaches, almost a year into the "ceasefire" that has killed over 1,440 Gazans.

@GeoPWatch

🇸🇦❌🇾🇪 – New Saudi strikes reported in Sana'a, capital of Houthi-controlled Yemen.

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⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 – An IAF airstrike targeted the top Hamas leader in Gaza, Ali al-Amoudi, on the early hours of Saturday. The strike occurred in Gaza City's Rimal neighborhood.

The IDF claims he was the right hand man of late Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, who al-Amoudi succeeded, and accused him of being involved in the planning of the October 7 attack.

The IDF has not yet confirmed if the attack was succesful. Five people, included four women, were killed in the strike. Two of those women were buried today after a ceremony at the Greek Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius.

@GeoPWatch

⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – As the last polls for the upcoming presidential election in Brazil went live, Polymarket gives right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro a 62% chance of defeating incumbent Lula da Silva, who was given a 38% of winning the election.

Both percentages correspond to the likelihood of winning the second round of elections—the first one will be held tomorrow (Sunday).

@GeoPWatch