Geopolitics Watch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- According to Fars News, it has been decided that the legal framework for navigation in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz will be arranged in cooperation between Iran and Oman.

โžก๏ธ The report also reveals that following the Israeli strike on Dahieh in Beirut, Iran cancelled negotiations and was preparing to strike Israel.

โžก๏ธ However, last-minute concessions from Donald Trump, including guarantees of Lebanon's territorial integrity, an Israeli withdrawal from the Lebanese border, and the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, persuaded Iran to stand down.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has confirmed that the memorandum of understanding has been finalized, with the official signing ceremony to take place in Switzerland on Friday.

โžก๏ธ He announced that the lifting of the US naval blockade against Iran begins tonight. Gharibabadi attributed the agreement not only to diplomacy but also to Iran's military achievements, the sacrifices of its martyrs, and the steadfastness of its people.

โžก๏ธ He declared that Iran achieved great victories in the war and that all of Iran's important positions have been included in the memorandum. The full text will be published after the official signing.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has confirmed that the memorandum of understanding has been finalized, with the official signing ceremony to take place in Switzerland on Friday. โžก๏ธ He announced that the lifting of the US naval blockadeโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi declared that Iran achieved great victories in the war, with the enemy failing in all its objectives.

โžก๏ธ He stated that all of Iran's important positions have been included in the draft agreement. He added that before the signing, Iranian officials will explain the various aspects of the memorandum through public media.

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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- According to Maariv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed Donald Trump that Israeli forces will not withdraw from Lebanon and that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Repeated Iskander-M ballistic missile launches towards Kyiv. Over ten launched so far, ongoing attack.
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Launch of two Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Donald Trump:
This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP


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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Launch of two Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Zircons flying towards Kyiv. Iskander-Ms continue to impact in Kyiv.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” At least two Tu-95MS strategic bombers have conducted launches. If these launches weren't simulated, Kh-101 cruise missiles will arrive in Ukrainian airspace in 90 minutes.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- According to Tasnim, an informed source confirmed that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will begin after the signing of the memorandum of understanding on Friday.

โžก๏ธ Sources close to the negotiation team revealed that the first clause of the memorandum covers an immediate and permanent end to the war and all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, as well as respect for Lebanon's territorial integrity.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” At least two Tu-95MS strategic bombers have conducted launches. If these launches weren't simulated, Kh-101 cruise missiles will arrive in Ukrainian airspace in 90 minutes. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Update, three Tu-95MS and three Tu-160M strategic bombers have conducted launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles.

The launches were conducted in two waves.


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#NEW
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- According to Mehr News Agency, sources have revealed the 14 clauses of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States:

โžก๏ธ On the financial side, sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and derivatives will be suspended, with full access restored to Iran's financial resources.

โžก๏ธ Crucially, $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds will be released during the 60-day final negotiation period, with half โ€” $12 billion โ€” made available to Iran before negotiations even begin. The US and its allies are also required to present reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least $300 billion.

โžก๏ธ The agreement calls for a permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon; US commitment to non-interference in Iranian affairs and respect for its sovereignty; and the complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days. US forces are committed to withdrawing from around Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

โžก๏ธ The agreement includes a 60-day negotiation window to reach a final deal covering nuclear issues and the complete lifting of all sanctions. Iran reaffirms its NPT commitment not to produce nuclear weapons, while the US commits not to add forces to the region or impose new sanctions during the negotiation period.

โžก๏ธ A supervisory mechanism will oversee implementation, and any final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution.

โžก๏ธ Notably, Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are definitively removed from the agenda. Final negotiations will not begin until the $12 billion is released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Statement from Iran's Supreme National Security Council:
The Islamic Republic of Iran, under the leadership of its martyred leader, has completed its superiority over the American Zionist enemy and, under the guidance of the Supreme Leader of the system (may God protect him), with the support of all the people and the diligent efforts of the warriors of Islam, after a difficult and intensive several-month negotiation period, and based on the resolution of the Supreme National Security Council, finalized the text of the memorandum of understanding regarding the end-of-war negotiations (Islamabad negotiations) between Iran and the United States on the evening of June 14.

According to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and permanently from tonight, and furthermore, the naval blockade against Iran will be immediately and completely lifted.

The signing of this memorandum of understanding will be officially carried out on Friday, June 19.

Negotiations for the final agreement will be postponed until after the other party fulfills its commitments according to the memorandum of understanding. The Islamic Republic of Iran appreciates the efforts of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the government of Qatar.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Donald Trump told the New York Times that if a nuclear deal with Iran is not reached, he would either restart military strikes on Tehran or make the United States "the guardian of the Middle East" in return for 20 percent of the region's revenues.

โžก๏ธ On Netanyahu, Trump stated, "He's a very difficult guy," and suggested the Israeli Prime Minister should be grateful, adding, "If Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn't be around for two hours."

โžก๏ธ Trump said his decision to strike Iran and impose a naval blockade had "remade the Middle East in America's favor" and confirmed that the US and Iran are still negotiating key details of a final nuclear agreement, including whether Tehran would suspend uranium enrichment for 15 to 20 years.

โžก๏ธ Under any eventual deal, Trump said Iran would be restricted to low-level uranium enrichment that "could never be used by the military."

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- According to Fox News, Qatari mediators have departed Tehran after 17 hours of intensive negotiations, with a diplomat briefed on developments confirming that a deal has been reached.

โžก๏ธ Separate preparatory meetings with each side will now take place in Doha this week, ahead of the official signing in Switzerland and the start of technical talks.

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โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ›ฅ๐Ÿ›ข - The Indian-owned LNG tanker Disha is the first to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the MOU announcement.

The tanker is carrying cargo from Qatar and took the Iranian route by Larak island.

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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - The E4 group (Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom) release a joint statement welcoming the MOU between the US and Iran.

E4 urge for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and say they are ready to lift relevant sanctions on Iran as part of the deal.

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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
Last night, Russia launched another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Missiles launched:


~16 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers at their launch lines over western Vologda Oblast.

~8 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers at their launch lines over western Vologda Oblast.

~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from OTRK installations in northern Kursk Oblast.

~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from ground-based installations north of Sevastopol, Crimea.

~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from ground-based installations in central/western Crimea.

~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from ground-based installations near Manturovo, Kursk Oblast.

~12 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations southeast of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~8 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations northwest of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Bryansk City, Bryansk Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations in northern Kursk Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) near Stary Oskol, Belgorod Oblast.

~1 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from an OTRK installation near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

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Total missiles launched:

~34 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~24 Kh-101 cruise missiles
~10 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles

~74 missiles in total.

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Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 6 Kh-101s, 5 Iskander-M/S-400s, 2 Iskander-Ks, and 1 Zircon.

This is one of the lowest interception rates Ukraine has had in some time.

-----------------------

The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian military targets in Kyiv. The following was targeted:

- Nova Poshta Warehouse in southwestern Kyiv (50.390595, 30.422709).

Additional targets in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and near Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast) are being clarified. A lack of NASA FIRMS data makes this much more difficult.

-----------------------

Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.
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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐ŸŽ- UKMTO reports an incident 14 nautical miles south of the coast of Yemen. A container vessel was approached by a small skiff whose crew opened fire and attempted to board the vessel.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- Israeli Defense Minister Katz has stated:
that the Israeli military will not withdraw from security zones in Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza, notwithstanding the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Netanyahu communicated this position directly to Trump.

Katz indicated that these security zones will be evacuated of local residents and all terrorist infrastructure will be dismantled, including residences in villages along the contact line that functioned as forward positions for Hezbollah.

He characterized the control of these areas as one of the greatest achievements of the Israeli army in the conflict, asserting that Israel will not retreat despite existing pressures and those anticipated in the future. He further warned that should Iran attack Israel due to the situation in Lebanon, Israel will respond with its full force.


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