Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‘€โ—๏ธ - Al Arabiya:
An announcement is expected regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within hours or by tomorrow.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ฅ - The explosion in Shamsabad Industrial Zone has reportedly injured 18 People so far. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ฅ - The source of the fire, which led to the explosion in Shamsabad, appears to be visible in this footage.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ€ผ๏ธ - A Russian paratrooper performing during the Airborne Forces Day celebrations near Moscow died after his parachute failed to deploy, leading to him falling to his death.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ - According to POLITICO and the Financial Times, Ukraineโ€™s long-range strike campaign has reportedly knocked out 40% of Russiaโ€™s primary oil refining capacity, contributing to the countryโ€™s worst fuel shortages in decades.

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช - Saudi Arabia is pursuing behind the scenes diplomacy to prevent renewed conflict with Yemenโ€™s Iran-backed Houthis from threatening the Kingdomโ€™s oil infrastructure and wider economy, according to people familiar with the matter.

Riyadh has reportedly held talks with the Houthis through Omani mediators, while continuing to prepare military options should diplomatic efforts fail.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - US Secretary of State Rubio:
There's been progress made in talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - US Secretary of State Rubio:
Nothing final on Hormuz; hoping an agreement will happen very shortly.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The U.S. and Israel Are Discussing a Land Blockade of Iran

What Does This Mean for Traders?

Washington and Jerusalem are considering the possibility of cutting off Iranโ€™s land trade routes. Trump and Netanyahu also discussed maintaining the blockade and the possibility of launching large-scale strikes.
The Strait of Hormuz is virtually paralyzed. Tensions remain high.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€“ A Houthi Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) struck and sank the MSV Faez Noor Awliya, an Indian-flagged tanker, in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

โ–ถ๏ธ Indian and Yemeni authorities confirmed the sinking, and informed that the crew of 14 was rescued and transfered to Mokha port in Yemen.

โ–ถ๏ธ The tanker is the fourth vessel to be struck by the Houthi rebels since the blockade on Saudi ports was announced.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - The Wall Street Journal states that initially, Iran agreed to a proposal by Oman to open the Strait of Hormuz, but then it added new conditions:

- The right to collect transit fees from ships.

- A guarantee that it would not be attacked again.

- An end to the US naval blockade.

- The lifting of oil sanctions.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - According to the Wall Street Journal, senior regional officials have stated that the United States and regional governments have rejected Iran's request to receive transit fees, as demanded by Iran in the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal.

Regional governments want a deal that includes assurances that Iran and its proxy groups will not pose a threat to their territories.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - According to the Wall Street Journal, senior regional officials have stated that the United States and regional governments have rejected Iran's request to receive transit fees, as demanded by Iran in the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal. Regionalโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - Trumpโ€™s deadline for an Iranโ€“Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz expires tonight.

Trump said that if thereโ€™s no Hormuz deal today, there will be โ€œdevastating strikesโ€.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ€ผ๏ธ - According to Reuters, the U.S. has used โ€œvirtually allโ€ of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) during the five-month war with Iran. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ€ผ๏ธ โ€“ CNN reports that approximately 80% of the pre-war THAAD inventory and roughly half of the Patriot missile reserves have been exhausted during the conflict involving Iran.

โ–ถ๏ธ The U.S. now has to deal with a lack of long-range attack munitions, as well as a lack of defensive interceptors, meaning both attack and defense have become riskier or more costly for U.S. forces in the region.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ The United States has revoked the visa of Maria Luiza Viotti, the Ambassador of Brazil to Washington D.C., as diplomatic tensions between both nations continue to escalate.

โ–ถ๏ธ The U.S. has accused Brasilia of withholding diplomatic approval for the American ambassador designated by Trump, and revoking Luiza's visa is probably a retaliation for that.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Explosions heard in Kyiv as Russia launches another large-scale ballistic missile attack against the Ukrainian capital.

โ–ถ๏ธ At least ten Iskander-M and one Zircon hypersonic missile have reportedly been launched.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Explosions heard in Kyiv as Russia launches another large-scale ballistic missile attack against the Ukrainian capital. โ–ถ๏ธ At least ten Iskander-M and one Zircon hypersonic missile have reportedly been launched. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - Mixed reports of 9 to 20 Zircon impacts in Kyiv.

Russia is actively launching a massive ballistic missile attack on Kyiv.


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