Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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Geopolitics Watch
80.8K subscribers
Geopolitics Watch
Geopolitics Watch
🇾🇪🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 - Ansarullah is expected to publish an "important" statement in exactly 30 minutes from now. @GeoPWatch
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🇾🇪🇮🇶❌🇸🇦 - Ansarullah announced that, in response to 50 airstrikes carried out by the RSAF in a period of 12 hours, the group struck Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia's Riyadh, and another in 'Khurais', using Ballistic Missiles and OWA drones, impacting and causing fires.

We detected fires in Aramco of "Khurais" and "Riyadh" using FIRMS overnight.

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🇾🇪🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 - Ansarullah captures Sultan Saeed AlBarakani’s Palace, the Speaker of the Yemeni House of Representatives to the PLC. @GeoPWatch
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🇾🇪🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 - Ansarullah forces have entered "AlTurbah", cutting off any possible remaining supply road to Ta'izz.

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⚡️🇦🇪🇮🇱 – The Israeli assessment regarding Flydubai's Omani pilot Hamam al-Hammami is changing, according to an i24 News correspondent.

Israeli authorities now believe al-Hammami acted alone, not as part of a larger operation.

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🇷🇺❌🇺🇦 – The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck four Ukrainian dry-cargo vessels, accusing them of carrying military equipment.

The strikes took place in the port of Chernomorsk, the waters of the Bug Estuary, and the Black Sea, and were carried out by jet-powered Geran-4s.

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⚡️🇺🇸 – President Trump went on another weird posting spree on his Truth Social over the last hour, criticizing the free press, former President Obama, threatening Greenland, and claiming to be getting younger, among other things.

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🇸🇦❌🇾🇪 – The Houthis (Ansarullah) said Saudi Arabia has launched 106 air and missile strikes against Yemen over the past 24 hours, apparently indicating increased Saudi pressure as the Houthis consolidate their gains in the Taizz front and threaten the capture of the city.

The strikes targeted the Houthi capital, Sana'a, and the governorates of Al-Jawf, Taiz, Amran, Hajjah, and Saada.

The KSA has carried out over 1500 air and missile attacks against the Houthis since the war restarted.

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#BREAKING
🇾🇪🇾🇪 - The UKMTO reports a series of explosions nearby a Tanker in Ansarullah-controlled "Bab AlMandeb". No impact, the crew is safe.

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🇾🇪⚡️🇸🇦🇾🇪- Ansarullah forces continue to make significant advances southwest of Taizz, leaving the city virtually encircled. Houthi forces have severed all major road corridors in and out of the city along with capturing numerous towns and villages across the Taizz governorate.

➡️ Over the past 24 hours, Ansarullah captured a large section of the Taizz–Aden highway, including settlements such as At Turbah, Al Mansora, As Samsarah, As Safiyah, and Al Nashmah. East of the road Ansarullah also secured the Al-Ahad Al-Shaoubah junction, further cutting off Road 2050.

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⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – Polls have closed for the first round of the Presidential election in Brazil.

With 7% of the ballots counted, right-wing and Trump-backed candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has a 10-point lead over incumbent Lula da Silva, who is seeking an unprecedented, non-consecutive fourth term in power.

If either candidate gets over 50% of the vote on the first round of elections, the second round of elections would be annulled and he'd become the next Brazilian President.

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⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – At over 12% of the vote counted, Bolsonaro is extending his lead over Lula, and he's now leading by almost 11 points.

If he manages to keep it this way, he could win the election without the need of a runoff—and if they both go into the second round, Bolsonaro has proven himself to be stronger than the polls suggested.

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⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – With over a third of the vote counted, the voting trajectory is barely changing and Bolsonaro still maintains a 10-point lead over Lula.

It's looking increasingly likely he could win on the first round, and if not, that he would be able to win against Lula in a runoff.

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⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – Bolsonaro's unexpectedly good performance is mostly due to him performing better than his father did in 2022 on states that voted for Lula in the last election.

The official site of the Brazilian 'Tribunal Superior Eleitoral' currently gives Bolsonaro 50.2% of the vote against Lula's 41.63%, at over 47.2% of the vote counted.

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⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – With over 59% of the vote counted, Bolsonaro has fallen below the 50% threshold and it's now likely a runoff election will indeed take place on October 25, three weeks from now.

Reuters currently claims Bolsonaro has 49.8% of the vote, while Lula is closing in at 42.0% of the vote.

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⚡️🇹🇷🇸🇦🇵🇰 – A committee of the Mecca pact will meet in Riyadh tomorrow, October 5, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

It's likely the main topics will be Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis, Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and bases, and the newly announced PLC counter-offensive aimed at regaining all lost territory.

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⚡️🇧🇷🗳 – Brazil will go to a second round of elections on October 25, three weeks from now.

With ~85% of the polls counted, Bolsonaro maintains a 5-point lead, 48.5% to Lula's 43.5%

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