Geopolitics Watch

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🇺🇸 – President Trump went on another weird posting spree on his Truth Social over the last hour, criticizing the free press, former President Obama, threatening Greenland, and claiming to be getting younger, among other things.

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5.12K viewsDeigo, edited 17:49

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🇾🇪 – The Houthis (Ansarullah) said Saudi Arabia has launched 106 air and missile strikes against Yemen over the past 24 hours, apparently indicating increased Saudi pressure as the Houthis consolidate their gains in the Taizz front and threaten the capture of the city.

The strikes targeted the Houthi capital, Sana'a, and the governorates of Al-Jawf, Taiz, Amran, Hajjah, and Saada.

The KSA has carried out over 1500 air and missile attacks against the Houthis since the war restarted.

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5.17K viewsDeigo, 17:52

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#BREAKING

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🇾🇪 - The UKMTO reports a series of explosions nearby a Tanker in Ansarullah-controlled "Bab AlMandeb". No impact, the crew is safe.

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5.29K viewspercy, edited 19:00

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- Ansarullah forces continue to make significant advances southwest of Taizz, leaving the city virtually encircled. Houthi forces have severed all major road corridors in and out of the city along with capturing numerous towns and villages across the Taizz governorate.

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Over the past 24 hours, Ansarullah captured a large section of the Taizz–Aden highway, including settlements such as At Turbah, Al Mansora, As Samsarah, As Safiyah, and Al Nashmah. East of the road Ansarullah also secured the Al-Ahad Al-Shaoubah junction, further cutting off Road 2050.

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5.3K viewsCK, edited 19:57

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🗳 – Polls have closed for the first round of the Presidential election in Brazil.

With 7% of the ballots counted, right-wing and Trump-backed candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has a 10-point lead over incumbent Lula da Silva, who is seeking an unprecedented, non-consecutive fourth term in power.

If either candidate gets over 50% of the vote on the first round of elections, the second round of elections would be annulled and he'd become the next Brazilian President.

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4.92K viewsDeigo, edited 20:52

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🗳 – At over 12% of the vote counted, Bolsonaro is extending his lead over Lula, and he's now leading by almost 11 points.

If he manages to keep it this way, he could win the election without the need of a runoff—and if they both go into the second round, Bolsonaro has proven himself to be stronger than the polls suggested.

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5.55K viewsDeigo, edited 21:11

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🗳 – With over a third of the vote counted, the voting trajectory is barely changing and Bolsonaro still maintains a 10-point lead over Lula.

It's looking increasingly likely he could win on the first round, and if not, that he would be able to win against Lula in a runoff.

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5.01K viewsDeigo, edited 21:41

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🗳 – Bolsonaro's unexpectedly good performance is mostly due to him performing better than his father did in 2022 on states that voted for Lula in the last election.

The official site of the Brazilian 'Tribunal Superior Eleitoral' currently gives Bolsonaro 50.2% of the vote against Lula's 41.63%, at over 47.2% of the vote counted.

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11.8K viewsDeigo, edited 21:59

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🗳 – With over 59% of the vote counted, Bolsonaro has fallen below the 50% threshold and it's now likely a runoff election will indeed take place on October 25, three weeks from now.

Reuters currently claims Bolsonaro has 49.8% of the vote, while Lula is closing in at 42.0% of the vote.

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5.28K viewsDeigo, 22:09

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🇵🇰 – A committee of the Mecca pact will meet in Riyadh tomorrow, October 5, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

It's likely the main topics will be Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis, Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and bases, and the newly announced PLC counter-offensive aimed at regaining all lost territory.

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5.94K viewsDeigo, edited 22:15

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🗳 – Brazil will go to a second round of elections on October 25, three weeks from now.

With ~85% of the polls counted, Bolsonaro maintains a 5-point lead, 48.5% to Lula's 43.5%

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5.84K viewsDeigo, 22:51

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🗳 – The states where Lula is leading by the largest margins (bigger circles indicate a bigger lead) are also the ones that have counted the less votes so far, so Lula is expected to further close the 5-point gap with Bolsonaro.

Alagoas: +18.5 for Lula — 57% counted
Ceará: +29.8 for Lula — 68% counted
Maranhão: +30.4 for Lula — 75% counted
Bahia: +45.7 for Lula — 67% counted

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6.23K viewsDeigo, edited 22:56

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🗳 – At 99.55% of the votes counted, Lula managed to shrink Bolsonaro's lead to 2.7%, or around 2.4 million votes.

The runoff election, which Bolsonaro is likely to win, will be held on October 25.

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6.41K viewsDeigo, edited 00:44

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🇧🇷 – Trump claimed the U.S. voting system is "CORRUPT" by comparing it to today's first round of presidential elections in... India.

Elections were held, as our informed and loyal subscribers may know, in Brazil, which is very much not India.

125 Million People voted today in the first round of India’s Presidential Election. The results came out shortly after the vote closed, on the SAME DAY! In Detroit, Philadelphia, California, and numerous other U.S. Cities and States, the results, with much smaller numbers, will often take weeks to Rig, I mean, calculate. Voting in America is CORRUPT!!! President DJT

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6.3K viewsDeigo, 05:17

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#BREAKING

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🇸🇦 - The PLC and affiliates re-capture Bab AlMandeb, following the launch of a counter-offensive this morning, as announced yesterday.

The group heads to 'Dhubab'.

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7.94K viewspercy, edited 09:06

🇸🇦 - The PLC and affiliates re-capture Bab AlMandeb, following the launch of a counter-offensive this morning, as announced yesterday. The group heads to 'Dhubab'. @GeoPWatch

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🇸🇦 - Rashad AlAlimi, the president of the PLC announces the launch of Operation "Yemen Dawn", with the objective of destroying Ansarullah, and re-capturing Yemen's capital, Sana'a.

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15.4K viewspercy, edited 09:13

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Forwarded from Percy's Archive

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷🇸🇦❌🇾🇪 - Major airforce activity for Yemen this morning to support ongoing PLC counter-offensive, launched yesterday.

RAF "KC2" and an RSAF "A330MRTT" refueling aircraft from Saudi Arabia over the Red Sea, French "A330-243MRTT" from Djibouti.

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5.11K viewspercy, 09:15

🇸🇦 - The PLC and affiliates re-capture Bab AlMandeb, following the launch of a counter-offensive this morning, as announced yesterday. The group heads to 'Dhubab'. @GeoPWatch

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🇾🇪❌🇾🇪 - Reportedly, dozens of Ansarullah soldiers were captured by the PLC and its affiliates during the operation to re-capture Bab AlMandeb.

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5.25K viewsKeixooki, edited 09:18

🇸🇦 - The PLC and affiliates re-capture Bab AlMandeb, following the launch of a counter-offensive this morning, as announced yesterday. The group heads to 'Dhubab'. @GeoPWatch

🇾🇪🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 - Yemen’s Armed Forces spokesperson claims:

- The Giants Brigades and Nation Shield Forces have taken back control of Bab AlMandeb following a flanking operation.

- Government forces have cut the Dhubab–Mokha road and established fire control over it.

- Houthi fighters fled by boat after being surrounded.

- Dhubab airport is under government control.

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