🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — NEW: A framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices tumbling, but industry officials warn a full return to pre-war production levels will take weeks, months, or even years, Reuters reports.

Over 14 million barrels per day of oil output remains shut — roughly 14% of global demand — with Middle East producers including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all affected.

Oil production recovery is gradual — analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate 70% of prior output could return within three months and 90% within six months, with the final 1 million bpd taking considerably longer.

Refining capacity — up to 3.52 million bpd shut or damaged — could recover to 90–95% within 40–60 days for undamaged plants, but total Middle East repair spending is estimated at $46 billion.

Qatar’s LNG capacity took the heaviest long-term blow — QatarEnergy’s CEO says Iranian attacks wiped out 17% of capacity for up to five years; full LNG restart requires careful sequencing and weeks of cooldown.

Global oil stockpiles are headed toward their lowest levels since 2003 — an estimated 1 billion barrels have been drained since the conflict began, worth over $83 billion. Markets face a “hangover for several years” as governments rebuild inventories.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

🇱🇧🇱🇧🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸⚡️ — A senior Hezbollah source told Al-Araby TV that Iran had assured the group it would not sign the memorandum of understanding unless it included an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.

➡️ The source said Tehran considers the withdrawal a necessary condition for finalizing the agreement.

⚡️ — Admin Note: If the US forces Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, it will be the biggest concession, proving that they no longer work with "peace through strength" slogans but rather believe in the "peace through niceness" slogan, since Iran taught them a lesson during the 40-day war.

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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — According to Yaron Avraham for Israel's Channel 12, Israel requested to review the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, but its request was denied.

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🇮🇱❌🇱🇧 — BREAKING: An Israeli drone strike targeted the southern Lebanese town of Mayfadoun.

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🇨🇳🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says the next phase of US-Iran negotiations will be “more difficult” than the first, AFP reports.

➡️ Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar the current consensus is “far from the final destination — it is a new starting point.”

➡️ Wang called for the UN Security Council to play a greater role in supporting the negotiations.

➡️ China says it is prepared to cooperate with Pakistan in advancing peace initiatives in the Middle East and Gulf region.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️ — WATCH: Hezbollah released footage dated May 29, 2026, showing the targeting of an IDF soldier in the settlement of Misgav Am in northern Israel using an Ababil fiber-optic FPV drone.

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⚡️🇺🇸🇴🇲🇦🇪 —The United States military has overseen clandestine ship-to-ship oil transfers off Fujairah (UAE) and Sohar (Oman) to maintain Gulf energy exports using aerial drones, water drones, and helicopters to guide convoys — Reuters citing shipping data, satellite imagery, and 11 familiar sources.

➡️ The mission began in early May and has involved at least 92 vessels, with satellite imagery tracking 17 pairs of ships conducting simultaneous transfers near Persian Gulf Strait Authority boundaries as recently as June 11.

➡️ A U.S. Apache helicopter shot down by Iran on June 9—sparking retaliatory U.S. bombings—was embedded in the operation; six tanker pairs were clustered off Sohar during the incident, and both crew members were rescued by an unmanned surface vessel.

➡️ A U.S. defense official stated no CENTCOM forces participate in the offshore transfers, which continued despite repeated Iranian fire targeting Fujairah port and ambiguous diplomatic frameworks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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🇮🇱❌🇱🇧 — Israeli artillery shelling targets the town of Majdal Zoun as well as the outskirts of Al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — NEW: The US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the memorandum of understanding is signed this week, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the agreement.

➡️ The sanctions waiver covers not only oil sales but also related services including banking, transportation, and insurance to facilitate those sales, WSJ reports.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️ — I won't go to the meeting with Putin in Moscow, we can meet in Turkey, Switzerland or the Middle East - Zelensky

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — NEW: US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran can now effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will — a powerful new capability acquired as a direct result of the war, three sources tell CNN.

➡️ “We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait — a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one source familiar with the assessments tells CNN.

➡️ Iran has also learned it can leverage targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure and potentially deploy Houthi forces to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait as an economic “nuclear option” if negotiations collapse.

➡️ A senior US official says Iran cannot access any benefits of the framework agreement unless the Strait remains open and Tehran abides by its commitments.

➡️ The assessments underscore the lasting strategic cost of initiating the conflict without fully accounting for Iran’s ability to weaponize the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — Trump: Iran is now the 10th war I’ve ended. I’ve ended 10 wars.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — NEW: Israeli Channel 12’s Barak Ravid says that he has obtained the key points of the MoU between the US and Iran:

— Iran, the US and their allies will cease hostilities, including in Lebanon

— Iran reiterates its commitment not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons

— US and Iran pledge to resolve issue of disposal of enriched uranium stockpile

— US and Iran to discuss enrichment issue and Iran's nuclear needs

— Iran will maintain status quo on its nuclear program as long as negotiations continue

— The US will lift the naval blockade, not impose new sanctions, and will not increase forces in the region during the negotiations.

— Iran will make the necessary arrangements to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, free of charge, for 60 days.

— US pledges to make frozen Iranian assets available for use with implementation of MoU

— If a final agreement is reached, the US will withdraw its forces within 30 days and lift all sanctions on Iran.

— Any final agreement will include a plan to establish a $300 billion fund for Iran's reconstruction.

— US to give Iran temporary sanctions waivers to sell oil during negotiations

— Negotiations will be held between Iran and Oman with the participation of Gulf policy to define "arrangements regarding shipping and maritime services"

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧⚡️ — Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has issued a stern warning to Israel, stating that the IDF violated the ceasefire 84 times over the past two days following President Trump's announcement of the end of the war. The statement added that if Israel does not cease its actions in southern Lebanon, it should expect a severe response from the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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🇮🇷🇮🇶⚡️ — The IRGC has carried out a drone strike on the headquarters of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups near Koy Sanjaq, east of Erbil in northern Iraq, using multiple Shahed-136 one-way attack drones.

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🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️ — The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked an ambulance brigade vehicle in the Bryansk region, injuring two medics and a driver, the acting governor reported.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — Critics of the deal with Iran suggest that the US should wage an endless war, "until all the bombs are dropped or all Iranians are killed," Vance stated.

In addition, a former US National Security Advisor during Trump's previous term, John Bolton, expresses an interesting opinion.

He claims that the Iranians manipulated Trump, obtaining everything they needed from the deal, and, moreover, a significant part of it is not disclosed by the Americans because it contains clauses that would greatly affect the geopolitical situation to Washington's detriment.

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