🇫🇷 After French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned shortcomings in forecasting and intelligence in his televised address on Sunday, the activities of the territorial intelligence service DNRT became the subject of close scrutiny.

On Monday morning, on the France Inter radio station, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez, who oversees DNRT, acknowledged the lack of proper preparation and announced that his ministry would conduct an investigation into the causes of these failings.

The main criticism of DNRT (voiced over the past weekend also by government representatives) is that the service had forecast the participation of fewer than 200,000 people, whereas, according to the authorities, 550,000 took to the streets – more than three times as many.
According to law‑enforcement sources, the main problem was an inadequate analysis of social media, in particular the TikTok platform, which became a catalyst for the growing discontent in society.

The fact that DNRT failed to foresee Saturday’s events is particularly painful given that, in recent years, the agency has significantly strengthened its technical capabilities for monitoring social media. Already after the Yellow Vests protests in 2018, the ministry began to bring in specialists in relevant fields:
OSINT experts, cybersecurity specialists, linguists and psychologists.

According to information obtained from several sources who had access to DNRT’s analytical notes prior to 17 October, the ministry predicted a high risk of looting that could be carried out by more or less organised groups from the suburbs.

Within DNRT, which employs 3,200 staff and is headed by police officer Bertrand Chamoulaud, the authorities were also repeatedly warned that movements linked to the radical left were preparing actions for 17 October. And although the government hurried to confirm this version last weekend, on Monday the Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau stated that most of those arrested by the police during the riots had not previously been on the radar of law‑enforcement agencies and had not declared any political motives.

Nevertheless, the position of the head of DNRT is currently extremely shaky. In the context of the present crisis, he may be the first to lose his post.

The irony of the situation lies in the fact that although the territorial intelligence service indeed failed to properly foresee the events of 17 October, DNRT had nevertheless warned the government about the coming upheavals, among other things as early as the end of February, when the beginning of the conflict in Iran led to a sharp spike in fuel prices. People who spoke with the head of DNRT heard from him the supposition that the Yellow Vests movement might re‑emerge in a different, perhaps more aggressive form.

🇺🇸⚡ According to U.S. media, close advisers to War Secretary Pete Hegseth are privately urging him to consider running in the 2028 presidential election, although he publicly denies having such ambitions.

His advisers believe that his forceful, masculine image could appeal to voters who support the MAGA movement, especially if J.D. Vance decides not to run.

However, Hegseth faces major obstacles, including a lack of political experience, weak ties to donors, scandals linked to the War Department, and his support for the unpopular war in Iran.

Hegseth also has a problem with widespread suspicions that he struggles with alcohol abuse, after he was caught drinking in his office despite having promised on the day of his appointment to stop drinking.

@IntelSlava

🇳🇴🇺🇦🇺🇸⚡ In the coming days, a meeting may take place in Norway between the Ukrainian side and Witkoff and Kushner.

On the agenda are issues of U.S. cooperation with Russia, as well as delays in military supplies to Ukraine on the part of American officials.

@IntelSlava

🇷🇺⚡ Russia may deploy up to 100 nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad, near NATO’s borders

- The Times reports.

According to satellite imagery, a powerful radar complex with a range of up to 3,200 km is being built there.

The region has also allegedly become a center for GPS interference: according to Lithuania’s estimates, at least 36 antennas for spoofing navigation signals have been installed there.

@IntelSlava

🇵🇱🇺🇦🇱🇹⚡ De facto confirmation that yesterday Ukrainian UAVs were flying toward St. Petersburg via Poland and Lithuania: the Polish prime minister said he “will firmly demand full clarification” from Ukraine over its drone entering Lithuania through Polish territory, Polish Radio RMF24 reports.

“We will investigate all the circumstances. I am counting on full cooperation from Ukraine in order to really determine exactly what happened. Without emotions, without bad intentions,” Tusk added.

He will also discuss this situation today with the president of Lithuania.

The operational commander of the Polish army stated that Warsaw does not permit operations in its airspace without its consent.

@IntelSlava