What made Iran bold enough to strike Israel directly?
The answer is Trump. Tehran may not field a first-class air force or navy, but they possess the absolute best detection equipment in the world for one specific signal: a lack of willingness to fight. For years, Hamas and Hezbollah detected this exact hesitation in Israel and exploited it to gain ground. Today, Iran is doing the exact same thing to the United States. It comes down to the old idiom: give them an inch, and theyโll start firing at a mile of your sovereign territory.
Two months of projected American weakness and a blind obsession with securing a deal have brought us straight to this moment. The collapse started when Washington chose to look the other way during Iranian missile and drone launches in the Gulf. It accelerated every time the U.S. conceded ground just to keep Tehran from abandoning the talks, culminating in the immense pressure to hold Israel back from striking Beirut and the forcing of a hasty, fragile โceasefireโ in southern Lebanon. Tehran smells the desperation and knows exactly what the U.S. is terrified of losing. As an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei phrased it: โIn the bombing in Beirut, the enemy set the negotiating table on fire for the third time.โ
So far, it seems Iran guessed correctly. Overnight, Trump went on Fox News with a message for Tehran: โYouโve shot your missiles, thatโs enough, get back to the table and make a deal.โ In so many words, Trump is simply repackaging Joe Bidenโs infamous April 2024 warning to Iran: โDonโt.โ Judging by the multiple, separate ballistic barrages launched from Iranian territory this morning, it promises to be just as effective.
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To read the rest of today's newsletter click here
amitsegal.substack.com/p/its-noon-in-โฆ
The answer is Trump. Tehran may not field a first-class air force or navy, but they possess the absolute best detection equipment in the world for one specific signal: a lack of willingness to fight. For years, Hamas and Hezbollah detected this exact hesitation in Israel and exploited it to gain ground. Today, Iran is doing the exact same thing to the United States. It comes down to the old idiom: give them an inch, and theyโll start firing at a mile of your sovereign territory.
Two months of projected American weakness and a blind obsession with securing a deal have brought us straight to this moment. The collapse started when Washington chose to look the other way during Iranian missile and drone launches in the Gulf. It accelerated every time the U.S. conceded ground just to keep Tehran from abandoning the talks, culminating in the immense pressure to hold Israel back from striking Beirut and the forcing of a hasty, fragile โceasefireโ in southern Lebanon. Tehran smells the desperation and knows exactly what the U.S. is terrified of losing. As an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei phrased it: โIn the bombing in Beirut, the enemy set the negotiating table on fire for the third time.โ
So far, it seems Iran guessed correctly. Overnight, Trump went on Fox News with a message for Tehran: โYouโve shot your missiles, thatโs enough, get back to the table and make a deal.โ In so many words, Trump is simply repackaging Joe Bidenโs infamous April 2024 warning to Iran: โDonโt.โ Judging by the multiple, separate ballistic barrages launched from Iranian territory this morning, it promises to be just as effective.
....
To read the rest of today's newsletter click here
amitsegal.substack.com/p/its-noon-in-โฆ
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Southern Front: The IDF announced that over the weekend it eliminated three senior members of the Islamic Jihad terror organization in the central Gaza Strip, including the head of the organization's engineering unit, his deputy, and the head of the anti-tank unit in the northern Gaza Strip.
Infographic: IDF Spokesperson
Infographic: IDF Spokesperson
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Defense Minister Israel Katz:
The Dahiya in Beirut is like the northern settlements.
Any attack on the northern settlements will lead to an attack on Dahiya.
The IDF will continue to operate in Lebanon against the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
We categorically reject Iran's threats. Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon and Iran and attack Israel will be met with great force as happened yesterday.
The Dahiya in Beirut is like the northern settlements.
Any attack on the northern settlements will lead to an attack on Dahiya.
The IDF will continue to operate in Lebanon against the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
We categorically reject Iran's threats. Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon and Iran and attack Israel will be met with great force as happened yesterday.
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Prime Minister Netanyahu in a short speech:
In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose on us a new equation - unbearable and unacceptable. It did not happen and it will not happen.
Israel has the full right to self-defense, I said this to my friend President Trump in our good conversations.
The fire on the Iranian front is now contained. If Iran attacks again, we will strike with force.
We thwarted Iran's atomic threat. If we had not acted in time and with strength - we would not be here today. I pledge again: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.
In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose on us a new equation - unbearable and unacceptable. It did not happen and it will not happen.
Israel has the full right to self-defense, I said this to my friend President Trump in our good conversations.
The fire on the Iranian front is now contained. If Iran attacks again, we will strike with force.
We thwarted Iran's atomic threat. If we had not acted in time and with strength - we would not be here today. I pledge again: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.
PM Netanyahu: "Our heroic fighters are dismantling Hezbollah"
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According to the report, Trump told Netanyahu that he believes the United States and Iran are approaching an agreement on a framework that will allow bringing the parties to the negotiating table towards a long-term agreement.
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The derived meaning is that in Israel they appreciate/understand that Iran is coming down from the tree and despite its public declarations, it contains IDF attacks in southern Lebanon.
Iran is retreating and withdrawing from the new equation it tried to establish for Hezbollah.
Iran is retreating and withdrawing from the new equation it tried to establish for Hezbollah.
The Saudi Ministry of Defense announced that a missile launched earlier today from Yemen and headed to a "country in the region" deviated from its course and fell in an open area near the Saudi-Yemen border. The Houthis, supported by Tehran, claimed to have carried out an attack against Israel.
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The US Central Command announced a short time ago that American forces disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it allegedly violated the blockade on Iran and attempted to sail to an Iranian port. The tanker was hit in a precise strike after it did not respond to the orders of the American forces.
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But the US wants Israel to contain Iran and Hezbollahโs aggression
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But the US wants Israel to contain Iran and Hezbollahโs aggression
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Barak Ravid
US President Donald Trump told Channel 12 News that during his conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the past day, he warned him that if the Israeli attacks escalate into a broad war, he might find himself alone against the Iranians.
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If this is true then Trump is naive and weak. He doesn't understand the Iranian threat.
US President Donald Trump told Channel 12 News that during his conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the past day, he warned him that if the Israeli attacks escalate into a broad war, he might find himself alone against the Iranians.
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If this is true then Trump is naive and weak. He doesn't understand the Iranian threat.
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Each passing day, weak Trump teaches Israel the need to be self-reliant.
Thank you, Trump ๐คก๐คฎ
Thank you, Trump ๐คก๐คฎ
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A time is coming, not too distant that the US will have no cards over Israel. We will be equal allies: no seniors or juniors, just mutual allies.
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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told CNN that "a military solution will never provide security for the residents of northern Israel"
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