JOGWD Report
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โšก๏ธJOGWD: Joint Observation Group for Warfare Development

๐Ÿ“ Military blog,Military History,Doctrine & Space.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Chat group: @JOGWDReportChat
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Explosions in Luhansk, likely from a missile attack

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ะ•vgeny Prigozhin claimed that "The Ukrainians are doing everything skillfully" and that in his opinion "not enough is being done to resist the opponent. We [Russia] need to mobilize, gather together, and understand that they will not stop until they receive a blow to the head"

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‘ค Donald Trump formally arrested on federal charges, will appear before a judge shortly

โœ… Update: Federal judge releases Donald Trump without conditions

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ After the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam,the level of the Dnipro River near Nikopol and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant dropped significantly

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พIsraeli airstrikes in al-Kiswa, south of Damascus. As usual against Iran backed militias.

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๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท The KCK, the federation of the regional structural rappresentations of the PKK, announced the end of the cease fire with Turkey.

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Depending on how the PKK will resume hostile activity, It could add a lot of pressure in north eastern Syria, on the side of the SDF.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ -Charles Lister (Senior Fellow and Director of MEI Syria and MEI CTE)

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In the last 48 hours the ukrainian forces have not advanced in their main axis to the south.
This could mean that 3 possible scenarios are about to occur:
- Ukraine has lost all its potential and stalled, which means it will not advance further
- ukrainian forces have begun an operational pause to reorder and prepare for further advances
- the focus of ukrainian forces has changed and they are preparing to start operations in other areas

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Two 2S19 Msta-S SPGs destroyed by M30A1 at 47ยฐ38'57"N 36ยฐ56'35"E , near Yalyns'ke. The M30A1 are missiles that contain 180,000 tungsten pellets and have an airburst type of explosion, thus covering a large area with high density and high velocity bullets. They are used by the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS systems.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Ukrainian source: in the city of Prymors'k, Zaporizhzhia oblast, Ukrainians army hit a Russian military base in the Sonyachna hotel using Storm Shadow missiles. ๐Ÿ“ 46ยฐ41'07.3"N 36ยฐ20'25.2"E (maps) ๐Ÿ‘‰ @JogwdReport
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ According to Ukrainian sources, Kadyrov's right-hand man Adam Delimkhanov was eliminated in Primorsk.
Kadyrov said the State Duma deputy and his right-hand man Adam Delimkhanov did not get in touch, asked Ukrainian intelligence to provide data on where the attack was carried out in order to find the dear brother

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ According to Ukrainian sources, Kadyrov's right-hand man Adam Delimkhanov was eliminated in Primorsk. Kadyrov said the State Duma deputy and his right-hand man Adam Delimkhanov did not get in touch, asked Ukrainian intelligence to provide data on whereโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ It was also reported that in Delimkhanov's location several chechen units were stationed prior to an operation.
An alleged HIMARS attack hit chechen positions, possibly resulting in tremendous loss for the units in the area

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian channels write about an incident near Kreminna in which one of Russian division commanders gathered a column that was about to launch an attack and left it in one place for two hours (presumably in an open field).
The column was hit by UA HIMARS and artillery.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian BMP-2 destroyed by Ukrainian kamikaze drone in Rivnopil, Donetsk Oblast.

๐Ÿ“ 47ยฐ47'15.6"N 36ยฐ42'25.8"E (maps)

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Russian Special Forces Group "Kaskad" has release recent footage that shows a Ukrainian T-80BV Tank in Makarivka being struck by โ€œLancetโ€ Kamikaze attack drone and then being abandoned with at least 2 members of the crew seen fleeing the tank.

๐Ÿ“ 47ยฐ46'53.0"N 36ยฐ47'47.8"E (maps)

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Serbian Forces arrested three ROSU Police officers along with their weapons and equipments.
The weapons taken from the officers appear to be early seventies East German MPi-KM assault rifles and Glock 17 Gen 3 pistols.

In response to the arrest the Kosovar Republic will ban consumer goods imports by Serbia.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ RAFAEL announced today that it has developed an advanced interceptor, named โ€œSky Sonic,โ€ as a groundbreaking defensive response to the growing threat of hypersonic missiles.

This revolutionary system will be officially unveiled for the first time at the Paris Air Show, one of the worldโ€™s largest aerospace exhibitions, opening next week.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia has expanded its use of aerial bombs, but it's not a game changer.

๐Ÿ’ฃ Their catalog for these bombs has a variety of options, ranging from 250kg to 1500kg, guided and unguided. They also have some 3000kg and 5000kg bombs stored but only seemed have used them in the bombings of the Azovstal Steelworks.
In the last few months we've witnessed the adaptation of old FAB and KAB bombs to some quite primitive but still workable gliding and guidance kits. The range seems to vary from 10km to about 50km depending on speed and altitude of the launching aircraft.

๐Ÿ’ฃ Russia started to use these bombs in relevant numbers during the Bakhmut offensive, basically using them to level buildings which It could not conquer otherwise and not much else. This is very likely due to a large CEP (Circular error probability) which makes them unreliable against smaller targets. Some time ago a bomb accidentally fell on Belgorod, likely partaining to such new variants. The official cause was an emergency jettison from an aircraft that had an engine problem but from the fact that it detonated we can make some hypothesis on the possible causes: firstly it's very likely that the bomb was old and not well maintained, this could cause heightened sensibility of the primer that could go off with lesser kinetic loads, another possibility are problems from the fighter's onboard systems that could've activated the fuze and the last one is, as always, pilot error. From the size of crater we can suppose that It was a 250kg bomb, since we also have videos of 1500kg bombs with such kits hitting large buildings and complexes it's obvious that they've created them for all bomb sizes in the russian inventory.

๐Ÿ”œ It also shows that the VKS is employing new weapons and improving tactics, visibly superior from last year's almost suicidal bombing runs.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ According to Russian telegram channels, Moscow's armed forces are applying a new tactic to destroy Ukrainian air defenses. The Russian air force launches missiles and bombs from a safe distance, forcing the Ukrainians to move their air defense systems close to the front line.
Russian forces launch Lancet drones to strike these air defense positions, which Kiev forces must destroy to avoid losing important targets.
Russia shows it can adapt on the ground with new tactics as happened in Afghanistan where artillery men often acted independently of generals.

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