Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 The Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding: Full Details

Phase 1 | Upon announcement of the MoU (effective immediately):


– Upon announcement of the MoU, both sides declare an immediate, complete and permanent end to all hostilities in the region, including Lebanon.

– Upon announcement of the MoU, the United States declares the immediate and complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran.

Phase 2 | After Signing of the MoU (30-day period):

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States confirms its commitment to non-interference in Iran’s domestic affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region, nor impose any new sanctions during the negotiations.

– Upon signing the MoU, Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and confirms that it will never produce, develop, or acquire a nuclear weapon.

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States declares that it will provide Iran with half of its frozen funds, amounting to a value of $12 Billion, to be made available in a non-reversible manner within 30 days, with a commitment to make the remaining half available during the subsequent 60 days.

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical exports, effective immediately, with a commitment to extend these waivers permanently once a final agreement is reached.

– Upon signing the MoU, the U.S. will begin immediate consultations with Israel to present a short term timeframe for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, including points occupied following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah agreement.

– Upon signing the MoU, Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran, within 30 days.

Phase 3 | Negotiations on a Final Deal (60-day period + possible extension):

– The 60-day negotiating period will begin once all the terms of the MoU have been met in the previous 30 days.

– The 60-day negotiating period can be extended by mutual agreement of both parties.

– During these 60 days, the U.S. will make the remaining $12 Billion of Iran’s frozen assets available.

– During these 60 days, the U.S. will present plans for a reconstruction fund for Iran, amounting to a value of at least $300 Billion, funded partially by Gulf states.

– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions on a permanent solution to nuclear-related matters, including enrichment, the existing uranium stockpile, and the fate of the nuclear sites.

– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions regarding the lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran, including primary, secondary, U.S. and UN sanctions, as well as the withdrawal of all UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran.

– A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of a final agreement.

– The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council Resolution.

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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — A senior U.S. official rejected Iran’s claim that it would receive $12 billion in frozen assets unconditionally before the start of the 60-day negotiations, describing the assertion as “a spin,” Axios reports.

“This is completely not true. This is a pay-for-performance deal, and no frozen funds will be released without the Iranians implementing their commitments,” the official said.
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth: ‘The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon’

Interviewer: ‘The JCPOA said that too’

Hegseth: ‘But they didn’t have the threat of military force that we do, in a way that Iran respects. Their regime is more devastating—excuse me, more DEVASTATED—than it’s ever been’

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth: ‘The main difference between Trump’s deal and Obama’s deal is that we bombed Iran’

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth: ‘We have controlled the Strait of Hormuz this entire time’

Interviewer: ‘But you’re negotiating with them to reopen it?’

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Reporter: ‘How quickly will the U.S. blockade end, and how quickly will Iran be able to sell oil again?’

Hegseth: ‘Well, immediately, is what the President has said’

Reporter: ‘So tomorrow?’

Hegseth: ‘Well when i, uh—again, it’s performance based, Margaret.’

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth: ‘Our credible threat of military force is the only thing that brought Iran to the negotiating table, so that the Strait of Hormuz is open and returns to the way it was before’

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— 🇮🇳/🇮🇷 NEW: The first ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours, an Indian tanker using the IRGC’s designated route

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And guess who’s still in charge?
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— 🇮🇷 Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s Chief of Staff:

‘The fight continues. Prince Reza Pahlavi will lead Iran to freedom.’

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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇷 Full statement by Hezbollah on the MoU (1/2):

‘Hezbollah congratulates the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership, and its people, on the great achievement of reaching a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States of America, which has led to a comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.

This great achievement is the fruit of the legendary steadfastness, exceptional resilience, and immense sacrifices made by the dear Iranian people and their wise leadership, who have adhered to the national choices that preserved their dignity, sovereignty, and independence.

On this momentous occasion, Hezbollah extends its greetings and appreciation to His Eminence the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei (may God protect him), who has guided this phase with unparalleled wisdom, courage, and insight, to the President and government of Iran, and to the valiant armed forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Army, and the brotherly Iranian people.

Hezbollah expresses its profound gratitude for their unwavering support to Lebanon, its people, and its resistance, and for their insistence that Lebanon be present in any agreement leading to a cessation of hostilities and the preservation of its rights. For this, they have borne the heavy burdens of siege and aggression, thus reaffirming that the Islamic Republic is truly a strong and loyal ally and supporter.

Hezbollah also extends its greetings to all the countries that participated, contributed, assisted, and supported the efforts to remove obstacles in order to achieve this agreement. Hezbollah emphasizes that Lebanon must make the best use of this regional and international support to achieve Lebanese sovereignty and liberate its lands within the framework of national unity.

We extend our deepest respect and admiration to the honorable, dignified, and resilient people of the resistance, and to the displaced families, for their patience, endurance, and steadfastness. We salute their sacrifices and all they have offered in the face of this barbaric aggression. They have truly proven themselves to be a proud people, the most honorable of all, as described by the Master of the Martyrs of the Nation, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

We also salute the leadership of the resistance and its valiant, heroic fighters, the nation's impregnable shield and strong bulwark, who sacrificed their pure blood and souls for the glory of their homeland and the dignity of their people. They waged heroic battles where the Israeli enemy witnessed some of their might and tasted the bitterness of defeat.

We affirm that what has been achieved is a prelude to completing the liberation of our land, the return of our prisoners to their homeland and families, the return of all residents, especially those in the frontline villages, to their homes, and the reconstruction of what the aggression has destroyed. We call upon our steadfast people to exercise patience and await instructions from the relevant authorities regarding their safe return to their villages and towns, for their own safety and to avoid any dangers that may arise from potential Israeli violations.

The Israeli enemy must understand that there will be no return to the pre-March 2ns status quo, and that the resistance, which has been and remains the vigilant guardian of the homeland and its people, will not accept any aggression that violates its sovereignty or sheds the blood of its people. The resistance will remain committed to Lebanon's legitimate and unwavering right to defend its land, its people, and its sovereignty until a complete withdrawal is achieved and the prisoners are returned.’

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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇷 Full Hezbollah statement on the MoU (2/2):

‘Therefore, we emphasize that this stage requires the government and all Lebanese political forces to return to a unified national stance in order to achieve the goals upon which the Lebanese people agree, goals that embody Lebanon's best interests and preserve its sovereignty, strength, and resilience in the face of Israeli ambitions.

It is wise to review all the calculations and paths taken by the authorities, to benefit from this experience and the experiences that preceded it in our homeland Lebanon, to move away from illusions and losing bets, and to acknowledge that a unified Lebanese position and reliance on true friends is the best way to preserve national interests.’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

– According to the MoU, Iran will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Oman.

– Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation services, environmental protection, insurances and other maritime services, Iran will collect the necessary fees.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇱/🇱🇧 Response by Iran’s Foreign Ministry to Israel’s claim they will not withdraw from Lebanon:

– We know that Israel never takes any action without consultation and direct coordination with America.

– Therefore, we hold America directly responsible if it fails to force Israel to submit to its obligations as part of the MoU, with necessary consequences.

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Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei: – According to the MoU, Iran will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Oman. – Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation…
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NOTE: The concept of ‘maritime services’ fees in the Strait of Hormuz would function similarly to Turkey’s fees in the Bosphorus Strait

Turkey charges vessels transiting the Bosphorus by ‘net tonnage’ (NT), approximately $5.83 per NT.

In the Bosphorus, that equates to about ~$220 million in annual revenue for Turkey. But the average tonnage of ships crossing the Bosphorus Strait is much smaller than those crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and the amount of crossings is also much lower.

Let’s assume that Iran would impose approximately the same amount of maritime fees in the Strait of Hormuz, but adjusted for traffic and tonnage.

With an average tonnage per ship of 80,000-100,000 NT in the Strait of Hormuz, and average crossing of between 35,000 and 40,000 vessels per year:

Iran would make approximately $16-$20 Billion dollars annually just from maritime fees, even without tolls. If Iran becomes the primary insurance provider, that would be billions more.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇱🇧 NEW: Without thanking Iran, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam accepts the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of the Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding and says the Lebanese government will work to ensure that Israel abides by withdrawing from Lebanese territory

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— For the Strait of Hormuz, there is one issue.

How will Iran enforce its control if the credible threat of military force is gone?

Vessels can just take the Omani route and not coordinate with Iran at all.

Let’s see how Iran solves this.
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