Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

Introduction: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/4

Owner and contact for ads: @Elias_MES

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— 🇮🇷 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 'Iran Military Capabilities', a channel close to the IRGC:

'There are some basic fundamental points on which any possible Iranian cooperation with the new Syrian government must be based:

– Agreeing on the prohibition of normalization between Syria and the Israeli enemy.

– Rejecting the Israeli incursion into Syrian territory and confronting it by all means, including military means.

– Protecting Syria's religious minorities, not attacking neighboring countries, and prohibiting terrorist activities and canceling the support for such activities.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support any non-sectarian Syrian government that rejects the Zionist regime, stands with the Palestinian people, and places the issue of Palestine and its people among its priorities.'

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— 🇸🇾 Syrian Civil Defense (White Helmets):

'The search for possible detainees in secret dungeons of the Assad regime's infamous 'Sednaya prison' in Damascus has ended without finding any.

Specialized teams from the White Helmets conducted a thorough search of all sections, facilities, basements, courtyards, and surrounding areas of the prison. These operations were carried out with the assistance of individuals familiar with the prison and its layout. The operation also involved five teams, including two K9 units.

The teams inspected all entrances, exits, ventilation shafts, sewage systems, water pipes, electrical wiring, and surveillance camera cables.

Despite these extensive efforts, we have not found any evidence to confirm the existence of secret basements or undiscovered dungeons in Sednaya prison.'

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— ❗️🇮🇱/🇸🇾 BREAKING: Israeli tanks have exited Quneitra Governorate, and have now reached Western Damascus Governorate

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Middle East Spectator — MES
— ❗️🇮🇱/🇸🇾 BREAKING: Israeli tanks have exited Quneitra Governorate, and have now reached Western Damascus Governorate @Middle_East_Spectator
— 🇮🇱/🇸🇾/🇱🇧 NEW: The IDF seems to be advancing along the Lebanese border, I don't like the look of this

It could just be to secure a 'buffer zone' in Syria as Israel says. But Israel has long considered entering Lebanon through Syria, bypassing Hezbollah's main defense lines.

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— 🇮🇱/🇸🇾 The current situation (map may not be fully updated):

Israel's initial stated goal was to 'temporarily take control over the UN-supervised zone' in the Syrian Golan Heights, including Quneitra.

However, they have since then moved past the 1974 'Line Bravo', and entered the Western Damascus Countryside. Their exact motives are currently unknown.

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— ❗️🇮🇱/🇸🇾 NEW: Heavy Israeli airstrikes on Damascus – Israel seems to have free game in Syria now that the SAA is gone

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— 🇮🇱/🇸🇾/🇱🇧 Reminder: In April of this year, the IDF detonated dozens of minefields located in the occupied Golan Heights

In a future ground offensive against Hezbollah, the IDF might enter Lebanon by passing through the Golan Heights and western Syria, bypassing the heavily fortified Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon, where they failed in 2006.

Syria could become a very important part in any upcoming full-scale war.

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— 🇵🇸❌🇮🇷 The backstabbing has started: Motasem Dalloul, a Gaza-based journalist who lost much of his family due to Israeli bombings, widely considered a hero of journalism, now blames Iran and Hezbollah for the situation in Gaza I have told people this countless…
— 🇸🇾 This guy just claimed a few hours ago that Sednaya prison contained 150,000 (150 THOUSAND) secret prisoners

Of course, this is completely false, even the White Helmets admitted a maximum of 4000 prisoners in their statement.

If they maintain these ridiculous lies even now Assad is gone, imagine the lies they were willing to invent when he was still in power.

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— ❗️🇮🇱/🇸🇾 MAP UPDATE: Israel has captured Jibaata al-Khashab, Hadhar, Erneh, Rimeh, Bqa'sim, Qal'at Jandal, Darbul and Heenah, in Western Damascus Governorate – Al Mayadeen

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— 🇸🇾/🇮🇱 SNA-affiliated Azaz News Network: 'There is no truth to the claims spread by 'anti-revolutionary media' that Israel has advanced in western Damascus countryside'

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— 🇮🇱/🇸🇾/🇱🇧/🇱🇧 Regarding the Israeli Ground Maneuver in Western Syria:

If I were Hezbollah, I'd be looking at this maneuver very closely right now. If Hezbollah's leadership estimates that Israel will make an unexpected flanking maneuver to enter Lebanon through Syria, then it's best to take preemptive action and take the battle to Syria, or at least take precautionary measures and deploy some squads to the mountainous border area – and they might already be doing that as we speak.

That is, assuming Israel's goal for this maneuver in Syria actually is Lebanon. Because to be honest, I don't see any other reason for them to be pushing this much Northward along the Lebanese border area. Lebanon has to be their goal somehow.

If invading Lebanon is not their goal, then there are only two other scenarios I can think of that Israel might be aiming for. One is cutting the Damascus-Beirut highway near Yafour, which makes little sense considering that Israel has no reason to be worried about Hezbollah shipments from rebel-controlled Syria to Lebanon for now.

The other scenario, which would be a major 'WTF' moment, is that Israel will actually try to capture Damascus for whatever reason. I highly doubt they will, but if they simply wanted to create a Security Zone in Syria or even an independent Druze state, there would be no need to move this far up North, they could simply push for Daraa & Suwayda.

So, as I stated, it is far more likely that Netanyahu wants to continue the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon by flanking from the East (Syria), possibly advancing into the Beqaa or even Beirut. If this is indeed their goal, then they're planning for a very large war, which will likely draw in Iran directly.

In my opion, Israel favors its chances currently. Assad just fell, Trump is about to take office, and Iran under Pezeshkian is not as assertive as it was several months ago. There may never be a better 'opportunity' for Israel to go 'all-in' regarding Lebanon (& maybe even Iran) than now.

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