Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

Introduction: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/4

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🇵🇰🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — A Pakistani source involved in U.S.–Iran mediation told Reuters that backchannel diplomacy has made progress, with an upcoming meeting potentially leading to a memorandum of understanding and a broader deal within 60 days.

➡️ The source said both sides "agree in principle."

➡️ Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir has been in Tehran since Wednesday and has helped make progress on key sticking points.
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Tabz - Live News
🇵🇰🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — A Pakistani source involved in U.S.–Iran mediation told Reuters that backchannel diplomacy has made progress, with an upcoming meeting potentially leading to a memorandum of understanding and a broader deal within 60 days. ➡️ The source said both…
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: There are reports, especially from Pakistani sources, that a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. is close

It could be true, but I would urge caution when dealing with such reports. Pakistan, as the mediator, has a direct interest in giving negotiations a positive spin. We’ve seen before that skepticism in Tehran persists.

Some (semi-reliable) sources even claimed that the ceasefire in Lebanon was declared after Iran issued an ultimatum to the U.S., revealing more tension underneath the surface than meets the eye.

In any case, there is no issue with a diplomatic solution or an MoU — but it should be according to Iran’s 10-points and preserve Iran’s national interests, as the SNSC has explicitly stated.

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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Six Israeli soldiers were injured by the detonation of an explosive device in southern Lebanon, two in serious condition

Israel claims Hezbollah violated the ceasefire, but it was likely an IED trap placed several days ago.

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, announces that the Strait of Hormuz is declared ‘completely open’ following the ceasefire in Lebanon, and this is valid for the remaining period of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire

All navigation through the Strait of Hormuz shall take place within the maritime corridor designated by the IRGC Navy and with Iran’s permission.

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, and refers to it as the ‘Strait of Iran’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇱🇧 NEW: President Trump claims on Truth Social that the deal is ‘not tied, in any way, to Lebanon’

This is false; Iran’s Foreign Minister confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz was opened in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon.

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump on Truth Social:

‘The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust”, created by our great B2 Bombers — No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form.

This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, seperately, work with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner.

Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump:

‘A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD! DJT.’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: ‘Thank you again, IRAN!’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: ‘Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 IMPORTANT NOTES:

– Opening the Strait of Hormuz was part of the original 2-week ceasefire agreement, but this was dependent on a ceasefire in Lebanon.

– As soon as the ceasefire was declared in Lebanon, Iran also abided by its promise — opening the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping.

– This ‘opening’ is only valid for the duration of the ceasefire, unless it is extended upon mutual agreement.

– The Strait of Hormuz is under full sovereignity of Iran, and ships are only allowed to pass through the corridor designated by the IRGC Navy and with prior Iranian permission.

– American military vessels are not allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency:

Iran has imposed 3 conditions for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz:

1. Ships must be commercial; the passage of military ships is prohibited, and neither the ships nor their cargo should be related to ‘hostile’ countries.

2. Ships must pass through the route designated by Iran.

3. The passage of vessels must be coordinated with the IRGC Navy.

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From ‘regime change’ to ‘STRAIT OF IRAN’. Interesting how things go.
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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Trump announces that, despite the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Naval Blockade against Iran will continue

(Admin note: In my opinion, this is a violation of the ceasefire)

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– The question is now, will Iran charge tolls on passage?

This is very important.
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Middle East Spectator — MES
– The question is now, will Iran charge tolls on passage? This is very important.
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Seyyed Mahmoud Nabavian, Iranian MP & part of Islamabad delegation:

‘Some commercial ships will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz upon payment of tolls.’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The U.S. has also agreed to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds as part of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz – Reuters

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: There is an Axios report that the U.S. is considering releasing $20 Billion worth of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for handing over part of the enriched uranium

This short-sighted ‘solution’ fails to address several key problems:

1. This money is already Iranian, the U.S. is not ‘giving’ anything to Iran by releasing it. It’s Iran’s own money that was frozen. The U.S. is merely releasing it (they lose nothing).

2. Unfreezing $20 Billion is only a drop of water in the grand scheme of politics. Within one or two years, this money will be gone, and for what? For losing ~400kg of 60% HEU that took half a decade to accumulate? For losing the fast-track to a possible nuclear deterrent?

3. The $20 Billion won’t make a difference in the Iranian economy. It will be used by the government for most likely military purchases (if the U.S. even allows that), it won’t be injected into the private sector. The only thing which Iran needs is SANCTIONS relief.

4. The right to uranium enrichment and keeping the enriched uranium stockpile inside the country were two fundamental positions during the Oman and Geneva talks. If Iran gives up these points without extensive sanctions relief, then it will give the U.S. the very things they failed to achieve during war.

Because of the following points, I would be skeptical about reports that Iran would agree to such a thing.

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