Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

Introduction: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/4

Owner and contact for ads: @Elias_MES

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

‘U.S. diplomatic claims are inconsistent with their field behavior and aim to influence public opinion’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 NEW: ‘Iran has informed the mediators it will send a delegation to Islamabad only if the U.S. naval blockade is lifted’ – Wall Street Journal

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Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 NEW: ‘Iran has informed the mediators it will send a delegation to Islamabad only if the U.S. naval blockade is lifted’ – Wall Street Journal @Middle_East_Spectator
This seems to be the case.

Iran doesn’t have a problem with negotiations, but negotiations can’t happen during an active aggression.

Naval blockade is a form of aggression, and a violation of the ceasefire.
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—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧/🇮🇷 IDF:

‘We attacked the platform from which Hezbollah launched rockets towards our forces in southern Lebanon.

Launch of rockets and drones by Hezbollah is a blatant violation of the ceasefire’

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Media is too big
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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 Israeli National Broadcaster (KANN):

‘In Israel, preparations are underway for the resumption of fighting against Iran.

A senior security official: ‘We assess that no understandings will be reached, and are prepared for the immediate resumption of the war’

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Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 Israeli National Broadcaster (KANN): ‘In Israel, preparations are underway for the resumption of fighting against Iran. A senior security official: ‘We assess that no understandings will be reached, and are prepared for the immediate resumption…
— 🇮🇱/🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Israeli analyst, Raz Zimmt:

‘As I understand it, there is no issue here of an Iranian attempt to stall for time. This is not a negotiation where time can be dragged out. The expiration date of the ceasefire is well known to everyone.

There is a substantive and clear position here from the leadership in Tehran, led by the Revolutionary Guards: there will be no negotiations if the Americans do not compromise (in one way or another) on the issue of the naval blockade.

This does not necessarily mean that they want to return to fighting, but it seems they are also not afraid of it.

They are also well aware of the accumulating economic damage resulting from the continuation of the naval blockade, yet they still assess that Iran has the ability to bear the economic price for at least several months, while the other side (the U.S., the global economy, Gulf states) has the ability to hold out for only a few more weeks.

The implication is that at this stage, it seems the chance of resuming talks depends to a large extent on the Americans' willingness to at least ease the naval blockade (even if not officially) in exchange for resuming the talks, which will probably require, nevertheless, an extension of the ceasefire by at least a few more days.’

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— 🇮🇷 NEW: Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is posting Persian poetry on X

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 BREAKING: Vice President J.D. Vance’s trip to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran has officially been ‘suspended’ – CNN

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Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 BREAKING: Vice President J.D. Vance’s trip to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran has officially been ‘suspended’ – CNN @Middle_East_Spectator
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 NEW: ‘Vance’s trip could resume at short notice, if Iran responds in a way Trump deems acceptable’ – New York Times

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

‘Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.

Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation.

Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying’

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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 BREAKING: In a statement, Hezbollah announces it targeted an Israeli artillery emplacement in Kfar Giladi

It was targeted with rockets and a swarm of drones, in response to repeated breaches of the ceasefire.

From now on, Hezbollah will respond to every violation.

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Hezbollah has officially decided it will respond to all Israeli ceasefire violations and to not allow the post-2024 situation to continue.
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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 BREAKING: Iran has officially informed the United States through Pakistan that it will not attend the negotiations in Islamabad – Tasnim

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: President Trump, in a post on Truth Social, unilaterally declares an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, despite saying he would not extend it before a deal is reached

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 IRIB: ‘Iran does not recognize the extension of the ceasefire, and may or may not abide by it based on its national interests’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency:

‘Despite Trump's announcement of a ceasefire extension, Iran has not issued a media statement on the matter.

Iran's position will be officially announced later.’

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So basically there’s a ceasefire, but nobody knows until when, and Hormuz is still closed, and Hezbollah & Israel are fighting again, and and and…

What a shit show lol
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Admin note:

The current situation is very strange. If Iran agrees to abide by this ‘indefinite’ extension of the ceasefire, we will enter a state of ‘no peace, no war’ — and nobody knows how long.

The U.S. naval blockade on Iran would remain, and so would Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a lose-lose situation.

Iran and the U.S. would both suffer economic consequences if this situation continues. But who would suffer worse, is the question.

Three main options are possible:

1. Iran decides that the U.S. naval blockade is an existential matter, and starts to take retaliatory measures. This would likely collapse the ceasefire. Alternatively, the U.S. may carry out another surprise attack.

2. Iran and the U.S. do reach some sort of understanding, maybe informally. Iran may allow a limited number of ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for an ‘easing’ of the U.S. naval blockade.

3. Iran and the U.S. agree to hold another round of negotiations. But this is unlikely, considering neither side is willing to make concessions.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker:

‘Trump's extension of the ceasefire makes no sense. The losing side cannot set the terms.

Continuing the siege is no different from bombing and must be responded to militarily.

Meanwhile, Trump's extension of the ceasefire certainly means buying time for a surprise strike. It is Iran's time to take the initiative.’

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Close Bab Al-Mandab.

Blockade the blockade of the blockade.
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