— Most of all, I’m worried about the effects of a bad deal on the Islamic Republic’s core supporter base.

It risks alienating those who spent 100+ nights on the streets in support of their government and their leader.

I have much more to say, but all we can do now is wait to see if there will really be a deal, and what exactly are the terms. Although, in my opinion the terms are irrelevant because America will violate them no matter what.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Trump reposts Araqchi

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 BREAKING: Pakistan confirms that a final text for the MoU has been reached

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 The upcoming Iran-U.S. deal, what details will I be looking for?

1. Lebanon & Iran’s Frozen Assets

The primary issue between both sides in the past few weeks has consisted of two things:
1. A ceasefire in Lebanon
2. A partial release of Iran’s frozen assets up front.

If these two terms are included in the agreement, the U.S. would have compromised on them—if not, then Iran has compromised on them.

It also depends on the specifics of these terms. For example, will it be a true ceasefire in Lebanon—or will Israel be allowed to carry out limited strikes like in 2024-2025? Will Iran’s money be released immediately and unconditionally, or will it be released upon Iran’s agreement to certain other things? Will Iran be allowed to use the money in any way it wishes, or will it be limited to ‘humanitarian purposes’? These things all matter.

2. Management of the Strait of Hormuz

According to Iran’s SNSC, and per instruction of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Strait of Hormuz must come under ‘new management’ in case of its reopening.

This ‘management’ consists of two main important parts:
1. Recognizing Iranian sovereignty over the waterway by using Iran’s designated maritime separation scheme and coordinating with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) before crossing.
2. The collection of transit tolls or another type of fee.

For Iran, it is mostly important that the collection of tolls is mentioned in the MoU, as it will be a huge source of revenue. Without tolls, there is no real benefit in controlling the Strait of Hormuz other than it being a matter of national pride.

3. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz & Lifting the U.S. Naval Blockade

Reopening the Strait and lifting the U.S. blockade are two matters that are separate from the issue of management.

For this part of the agreement to be beneficial to Iran, the U.S. should lift the blockade first, and then Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz (under its own management). At the very least, the two actions happen simultaneously. If the lifting of the U.S. blockade only happens afterward, or is conditional on certain Iranian steps to be taken, that would be very problematic.

4. Nuclear Matters

While nuclear matters won’t be settled in the MoU, Iran has reportedly agreed to ‘commit to discussing’ it eventually, and if that happens there are three main issues:

1. The fate of enrichment: Will Iran be allowed to enrich at low levels like 3.67% for its own fuel production? Or will there be a temporary enrichment ban?
2. The fate of the stockpile: Will it be transferred abroad or diluted domestically?
3. The fate of the nuclear sites: Will the U.S. demand the full dismantlement of these facilities?

For a deal to be positive to Iran, the minimum is for the uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran and to be gradually diluted in stages, in accordance with commitments kept by the Americans.
A small temporary enrichment suspension would be a loss of face for Iran in terms of national pride, but realistically it’s difficult to restart enrichment within the next few years anyway. As long as the suspension is short (3-5 years), then Iran has gotten a good deal on that aspect.

5. Sanctions Relief & Economic Support for Reconstruction

Perhaps most importantly for Iran, it matters what the MoU says about sanctions relief.
For Iran, there are four main important points:

1. Waivers on the sale of oil, which should happen immediately upon signing of the agreement.
2. All other U.S. economic sanctions, which should be lifted as part of Iran’s compromises on the nuclear program.
3. UN sanctions, which should also be lifted as part of Iran’s compromises on the nuclear program.
4. An economic reconstruction fund (reparations).

Points 1, 2 and 3 are very important and should be explicitly mentioned in the MoU. For point 4, it’s important that Iran gets to decide how to use this money (reportedly $300 Billion) and the U.S. doesn’t intervene with it.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei: ‘We are currently finalizing the details of the MoU internally and awaiting final approval’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iranian MP & member of the Islamabad Delegation, Mahmoud Nabavian:

‘Upon seeing the text of the agreement, I must state:

Compared to the two previous versions, it is more damaging, and Iran’s concessions have increased.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰/🇨🇭NEW: The Pakistani Foreign Minister is traveling to Geneva today to continue mediation efforts with the U.S. and push for a signing ceremony to take place this weekend

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Israeli Channel 14:

‘At a meeting between Qatari and Iranian representatives on Wednesday, the breakthrough was achieved.

The terms of the MoU were agreed upon at the level of Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC Commander-in-Chief, was also present at the meeting but did not agree with some of the terms in the text.

Following the meeting, the text was sent to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, for final approval, which has not yet been granted.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇷/🇦🇪 NEW: The UAE will unlock $10 Billion worth of frozen oil revenues to Iran, of which $3 Billion have already been recently delivered in cash, according to Reuters

Two other informed sources said the amount could be up to $20 Billion, and part of this was agreed in exchange for Iran not attacking the United Arab Emirates during the final weeks of the war.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, on live TV:

– Signing an agreement is needed to consolidate the victory that Iran has created on the ground.

– We’ve reached a final draft for a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding which is now in the final stages of being reviewed.

– I prefer not to disclose the details of the MoU until it has been finalized.

– What I can say is that Lebanon will be part of the agreement.

– There is never a deal in which one side takes 100% and the other side makes all the concessions (i.e. Iran has also made some concessions)

– There is a good chance the MoU is signed, but until then, things can still go up or down, items can be added or removed, and it’s not final.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇮🇷/🇱🇧/🇺🇸/🇮🇱 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

‘As part of the MoU and the ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel will withdraw from all its occupied territories.

If these and other obligations are not met, negotiations on a final settlement will not take place.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇷/🇴🇲 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

‘The future of the Strait of Hormuz and its management will not be like before.

Iran and Oman will probably soon issue a joint statement regarding the administration of the Strait of Hormuz.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

‘According to international law, imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz is not allowed.

But a type of payment or service fees will be required to pass the Strait of Hormuz. This matter is confirmed.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: ‘Iran’s frozen funds will be released if the Memorandum of Understanding is signed.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

‘I will not give details of the MoU until it is finalized’

> Spends his entire interview talking about details of the MoU

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

‘Within the Supreme National Security Council, there are both supporters and opponents of the MoU text. Eventually, a joint decision will be communicated.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇮🇷| Iran’s FM: The US insisted on zero enrichment. We opposed it, and in the end, war broke out.

@FotrosResistancee