🚨🇺🇸 Why Iran Regime Change Failed: Trump Misunderstood How Airpower Works

To eliminate Iran’s nuclear and missile program, Washington may see regime change as the only path. But will the U.S. be able to overthrow the Iranian government without deploying ground troops?

The theory of Admiral J. C. Wylie, a prominent strategic thinker, exposes the myth that air power alone can force an enemy into submission.

🔸 Airpower's "cumulative" strikes scatter impact across dispersed targets. They prove too weak to stun leadership or force surrender. Each hit delivers a psychological punch that is too meager.

🔸 Admiral Wylie's doctrine asserts that only ground troops can seize and hold geophysical control. Soldiers go and stay, unlike fleeting air operations. Without boots on the ground, no real grip exists.

🔸 Bombing from above assumes dominance. Yet it lacks the staying power for strategic success. This shows in Iran's resilient defenses after Israel's 2025 strikes.

🔸 Cumulative operations enable sequential ground pounding. They remain indecisive on their own.

🔸 Overreliance on airpower risks trapping the U.S. in a protracted stalemate against a tenacious adversary like Iran. Despite the 12-Day War and recent strikes, Tehran remains a significant power capable of inflicting substantial damage on American and allied assets in the region and beyond.

Will Trump dare to deploy ground troops once he realizes his air campaign has failed, or will he resort to awkward negotiations and deals instead?

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Lies About U.S. Dominance Over Iran’s Skies Exposed

Iranian fighter jets remain active over Tehran, as confirmed by the photos, challenging narratives of uncontested U.S. air superiority.

MiG-29As and Yak-130 combat trainers are circling the capital, hunting drones, Israeli UAVs, and even Tomahawk cruise missiles, these jets specialize in killing slow-moving threats at low altitudes.

The appearance of Iranian aircraft over rear areas shows that U.S. and Israeli tactical aviation still does not operate freely over Iran’s vast mountainous terrain, where mobile IRGC air defense units continue to pose a credible threat, allowing Iranian aircraft to retain safe zones for maneuver.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷If Hormuz Closes, These Pipelines Will Decide the Outcome

If the conflict with Iran continues, the Gulf oil pipeline routes designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a disruption will undergo their first major stress test of this decade.

Saudi Arabia relies on the East-West Pipeline (EWP), which transports crude roughly 1,200 km from the Abqaiq processing hub to export terminals in Yanbu on the Red Sea. Following a $250 million upgrade, its capacity increased from 5 to 7 million barrels per day.

The UAE has pursued a similar strategy. Since 2012, the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) has carried 1.5 million barrels per day to Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz. ADNOC is also developing an additional pipeline from Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah with a planned capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day, expected to come online by 2027. This would effectively double the UAE’s overland export capacity.

Iran operates its own bypass via the Goreh–Jask pipeline, commissioned in 2021 to transport oil from Khuzestan to terminals on the Gulf of Oman. While its nominal capacity is 1 million barrels per day, actual throughput has reportedly remained below 350 000 barrels per day. In a prolonged conflict, export capacity alone will not be the only constraint—access to buyers will also remain a limiting factor.

Iraq remains the most exposed, as it continues to depend heavily on export terminals in the Persian Gulf. Restarting the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey could provide an alternative route with a potential capacity of up to 1.2 million barrels per day, but this would require resolving ongoing political and legal disputes.

In total, Gulf bypass pipelines offer a theoretical export capacity exceeding 12 million barrels per day. However, even if fully utilized, this would place significant operational pressure on Red Sea and Gulf of Oman terminals. Tanker traffic from Fujairah, Yanbu, and Jeddah will indicate whether pipeline routes can offset a potential disruption of tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Trump’s Iran Strategy: Three Objectives — None Achieved

Despite sustained U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, Washington’s three central strategic objectives in Iran remain unmet:

1️⃣Regime change

Iran’s political and military command structure continues to function. Even after leadership losses and infrastructure strikes, state continuity mechanisms remain intact. Regime change historically requires either internal collapse or a ground invasion. Airpower alone has never reliably removed entrenched governments with functioning security institutions.

2️⃣Ending Iran’s nuclear program

U.S. and Israeli strikes damaged parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but the program itself remains intact. The IAEA reported that large quantities of highly enriched uranium were stored in underground tunnel complexes at Isfahan that appear to have survived the attacks. Iran’s nuclear architecture was deliberately designed with hardened and deeply buried facilities, limiting the effectiveness of airstrikes. The U.S. inventory of bunker-buster munitions is finite, while Iran maintains a large network of underground enrichment, storage, and fuel facilities.

3️⃣Eliminating Iran’s ballistic missile threat

Iran continues to launch missiles despite ongoing strikes. Its missile program is structurally resilient, relying on mobile launchers, dispersed stockpiles, and extensive underground storage. These systems were specifically designed to survive air campaigns and maintain retaliatory capability even under sustained attack.

For Iran, survival alone would constitute a strategic success. If the state endures despite direct U.S. military pressure, it would mark the failure of Washington’s long-standing strategy of coercion and signal the erosion of American hegemony in the Middle East. In that outcome, Iran would not simply remain a key regional power but would be positioned to help shape a new regional order increasingly defined by local actors rather than American dominance.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷 ISRAEL IN PANIC: ITS PRICEY DRONE PROVES USELESS AGAINST IRAN

Iran's air defenses are dismantling Israeli Hermes 900 fleets, shattering Tel Aviv's illusion of unchallenged skies as US-backed strikes falter in the escalating showdown.

🔸 Iran claimed victories by downing at least five Hermes 900s using advanced systems like the Bavar 373 and Product 358 missiles over key sites including Isfahan and Khomeinishahr.

🔸 These UAVs, powered by a Rotax 914 or upgraded 916 engine delivering up to 210 horsepower, feature a 15-meter wingspan, 36-hour flight endurance, 30,000-foot ceiling, and 770-pound payload capacity loaded with EO/IR sensors, synthetic aperture radar, electronic warfare jammers, and Rafael Spike anti-tank missiles for versatile ISR and strike roles.

🔸 Hezbollah's repeated successes, including at least four Hermes 900 downings since October 2023 with surface-to-air missiles in incidents like June 1 and June 10 of 2024, almost certainly provided Iran with critical tactics such as jamming communications ahead of strikes from Sayyad-2 or S-300 systems.

🔸 Iran's layered defenses, integrating Ghadir early-warning radars, 48N6E2 interceptors, and even MiG-29 fighters armed with R-73 missiles for drone kills, indicate Tehran's rapid adaptation and resilience against ongoing Israeli aggression, debunking Western media narratives of complete Iranian helplessness.

Do you believe these drones still hold any real effectiveness against Iran?

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

⭐️THE MOST FAMOUS MILITARY TELEGRAM CHANNEL @rybar INTERNATIONAL

⚡️the largest Russian military Telegram channel
⚡️with over 1.5 million subscribers,
⚡️the channel that publishes the most detailed reports and whose texts are referenced by Western media and military experts
⚡️a channel that seeks out topics of interest in a sea of information—and explains them to you in simple words
⚡️news about major world events (including those in the shadows) commented on by a team of analysts.

The channel of the @rybar project is available and TRANSLATED in the following languages:

🇬🇧English
🇫🇷French
🇪🇸Spanish
🇮🇹Italian
🇩🇪German
🇭🇺Hungarian
🇬🇷Greek

Subscribe to all here 🔻
⭐️ RYBAR INTERNATIONAL

🚨🇮🇷 IRAN CONFLICT MATH: U.S. ATTRITION HORROR

If the US-Iran conflict drags on, it becomes an attrition nightmare for Washington.

Iran's low-cost arsenal, including Shahed drones (priced at around $20-50k each with production rates of 200-500 per month) and ballistic missiles ($1-2M each, produced at 50-100 per month), enables sustained, economical barrage attacks that could overwhelm defenses over time.

In contrast, U.S. systems like the PAC-3 MSE (costing ~$4-5M per unit, with current annual production around 600 units, equating to $2.4-3B in costs) and THAAD (~$12-15M per interceptor, produced at ~96 units yearly for $1.2-1.4B) are far more expensive to replenish. The overall U.S. missile defense budget hovers at $15-20B for FY26, though initiatives like Golden Dome consume over $13B for space and missile defense integration alone.

Consider the June 2025 12-day war escalation, where Iran launched over 1,000 drones and 550 missiles: repelling that required allies to expend an estimated $5-10B in interceptors. If Iran were to replicate such large-scale salvos roughly 10 times annually in a drawn-out conflict, U.S. and allied stockpiles could deplete within months unless production shifts to a full wartime footing. Ultimately, Tehran's cost-effective output gives it the edge in endurance.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸WHO BLINKS FIRST? THE IRAN-U.S. WAR OF EXHAUSTION

The hot phase may last until offensive potential is depleted or a strategic stalemate forces diplomacy. Russian experts weigh in on what is actually going on:

🟠Kirill Semyonov, Analyst on Middle Eastern conflicts:

Iran's "all-in" strategy has caught Washington by surprise. Tehran's strikes on U.S. bases and Gulf states' vital oil and gas infrastructure are calculated moves to raise the stakes, forcing the U.S. to confront an escalating cost — both geopolitical and economic. The U.S. had not anticipated a long-term engagement, leading to two grim choices: a ground invasion, or accepting a continuous conflict, with Iran capable of reigniting hostilities at will.

🟠Maxim Alontsev, Academic Director at HSE University:

The conflict will drag on until both sides are exhausted, reaching an "operational deadlock." With a fragile "safety catch" provided by Gulf monarchies' restraint, The slightest shift could ignite a wider regional war. The situation is fostering new identities across non-Arab Muslim countries, as grassroots movements, like protests in Pakistan, show spontaneous solidarity with Iran, a development that may reshape regional allegiances.

🟠Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor of Russia in Global Affairs:

The unprecedented assassination of Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei breach of international norms will resonate across global diplomacy, signaling that negotiations are futile and setting a dangerous precedent for regime change.

🟠Timofey Bordachev, prof., HSE University:

The U.S. approach as short-term and tactical, with little regard for long-term regional stability. While Iran faces external threats, its political culture ensures its resilience, preventing a collapse like that of Libya or Iraq. For Russia, however, the Middle East conflict is secondary to the nuclear balance and the war in Ukraine.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 GROUND WAR IN IRAN: WHY THE U.S. ISN’T PREPARED

The US cannot invade Iran with the forces it currently has in the region. A real ground war would demand a massive buildup Washington hasn’t even started. Here’s why a land invasion would be extraordinarily difficult.

🔸 The US lacks any serious ground punch in the Gulf with zero divisions or brigades geared for real offense, leaving them exposed on land

🔸 Washington rushed in 280 combat jets and two carriers over 1.5 months using over 300 transport flights, betting everything on air dominance while skimping on troops

🔸 Flashback to 2003 Iraq invasion where the US massed 170K soldiers, five carriers, and 1K planes against a nation four times smaller by area and 3.5 times by population with flat deserts perfect for swift tank pushes

🔸 Iran's jagged mountain ranges shred supply lines and block maneuvers, turning the sole Iraq border corridor into a graveyard for armored forces unlike Iraq's open terrain

🔸 Scaling up demands 500K+ ground troops, seven or eight carriers from US stocks, and daily tons of cargo, requiring six to 12 months of prep that's utterly doomed in the blazing Gulf chaos, plus no coalition backup this time

Do you think Trump will ultimately launch a ground operation against Iran?

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷 IRAN’S DRONE HUNTERS: A NIGHTMARE FOR U.S. AND ISRAELI UAVs

Even under constant U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, Iran still intercepts enemy drones. The reason lies in a set of mobile, radar-silent air defense systems that are far harder to detect and destroy:

🔸 Missile 358 – a loitering anti-drone interceptor operating in autonomous “free hunt” mode.

Flying at ~0.6 Mach with up to 100 km range and 8.5 km interception altitude, it can patrol airspace and engage targets like MQ-9 Reaper or Hermes-900 UAVs. Radio correction can improve accuracy but risks exposing the control node to enemy electronic surveillance.

🔸 AD-08 Majid – a mobile short-range air defense system using optical and thermal sensors instead of radar.

Its IR-guided missiles reach ~2 Mach, with 8 km range and 6 km altitude, making the system difficult to detect for aircraft relying on radar warning receivers.

🔸 Repurposed R-73 / R-27T missiles – infrared air-to-air missiles adapted for ground launch from mobile platforms equipped with thermal sights.

Similar improvised systems have previously downed UAVs and even aircraft — including a Saudi F-15S shot down by the Houthis in 2018.

Unlike radar-based systems that can be quickly targeted by anti-radiation missiles, these mobile defenses are harder to detect and eliminate, allowing Iran to keep enemy UAV operations under constant pressure.

Do you think radar-silent air defenses could really help Iran counter Western drones and aircraft?

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE FAILS: IRAN HITS AMERICA’S LARGEST OVERSEAS AIRBASE

Iran struck Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar with ballistic missiles, causing significant damage to the largest U.S. military airbase outside the United States. Satellite imagery now confirms structural destruction across parts of the facility after the February 28 strike.

The attack followed the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and formed part of the largest coordinated Iranian strike on U.S. bases in the region to date, directly challenging the resilience of Washington’s forward airpower architecture in the Middle East.

Analysis of February 28 footage reveals three MIM-104 Patriot interceptors failing to neutralize incoming threats. This failure coincides with reports that Iranian strikes destroyed key air defense radars at the facility, suggesting Iran targeted the system’s architectural vulnerabilities rather than simply attempting to overwhelm it.

Al Udeid spans roughly 31 square kilometers and hosts strategic assets including B-52 bombers, F-15E strike fighters, and fifth-generation aircraft such as F-22 and F-35 fighters. Due to its vast size the base may remain partially operational, but the strike demonstrated that even heavily defended U.S. regional hubs can be penetrated by Iranian ballistic missiles.

The Patriot’s reliability had already been questioned after a June 23, 2025 strike, when lower-end Fateh-313 missiles successfully hit the same base despite prior warning of the attack.

The limited number of interceptors available makes sustained defense against repeated missile salvos extremely difficult. Against large-scale or prolonged strikes, missile defense becomes not only a technological challenge but a matter of stockpiles and production capacity.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷DECAPITATION DIDN’T WORK: WHY AIRSTRIKES ALONE WON’T TOPPLE IRAN

The U.S. and Israel believed killing Supreme Leader Khamenei could trigger regime collapse. Instead, the strike may have hardened Iran’s political system and made escalation more likely, Chinese analysts warn:

🟠Liu Zhongmin, Prof. at the Shanghai International Studies University (SISU)

The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials and Hamas leaders on Iranian territory reveals an "extremely serious extent" of their infiltration into Iran. Washington and Tel Aviv may have already cultivated potential fifth columnists or power-seizing forces within the country which poses a greater threat to the regime's stability than the strikes themselves.

🟠Li Shaoxian, Director of the China-Arab States Research Institute

Iran's political system is fundamentally different from others, like Venezuela. It has institutionalized succession mechanisms and contingency planning. Airstrikes alone, absent a ground invasion, cannot topple the regime. The attack will likely backfire, "stimulating even stronger impulses of revenge and retaliation" within the system, thus reinforcing its stability.

🟠Zhou Yiqi, Researcher at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies

For the Islamic Republic, its missile program is an existential issue. Therefore, any U.S. attempt to coerce Iran into conceding on its missile capabilities is functionally identical to pursuing regime change. By framing the negotiations this way, the U.S. has made compromise nearly impossible and blurred the line between coercive diplomacy and all-out war.

🟠Chen Long, Research Assistant at Renmin University

Iran is likely to rely on asymmetric retaliation, launching waves of ballistic missiles and drones against U.S. bases and Israeli targets. This could draw the US into a prolonged war of attrition in the Middle East, inevitably weakening the strategic resources Washington can devote to other regions.

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷 Pentagon in panic: Iran unleashes its top kamikaze drone

Iran just used its cutting-edge Hadid-110 kamikaze drones in real combat for the first time, packing blistering speeds up to 510 km/h and ultra-low radar signatures that slip past Western defenses.

🔸 The Hadid-110 surges at 510 km/h while slashing its radar cross-section below 0.02 square meters through advanced airframe designs and radar-absorbing materials

🔸 These drones evade detection by F-15E fighters' APG-82(V)1 radars and E-3C sentry planes at far shorter ranges compared to older Shahed-136 models

🔸 With over 350 km of operational range carrying a 30 kg warhead, they precisely target critical infrastructure along the Persian Gulf's western shores

🔸 Opting for lighter warheads unlocks even greater strike distances, pushing threats deeper into adversary territories without added fuel

Do you think these drones could help Iran increase the damage it’s inflicting on the Coalition of Epstein?

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X

🚨🇮🇷 Are Iranian missile launchers really being wiped out?

Trump says Iran is running out of missile launchers, while Israel claims half have been destroyed. But the facts on the ground tell a very different story.

🔸 Last year the US boasted about destroying one-third of Iran's launchers, yet Iranian reports pushed back hard with claims of only a 3% actual hit rate, highlighting potential exaggeration in Western assessments.

🔸 The US and Israel have strong disagreements, as Israel declares that “more than half of all Iranian missile launchers” have been eliminated, which is far from the US view that Iran's arsenal is “running out”

🔸 Iran's mobile systems remain scattered across vast territories, easily evading detection through satellite gaps and rapid repositioning tactics. Even if they are detected, these platforms will have changed their position by the time the US launches a strike.

🔸 Decoy tactics fool advanced strikes by deploying fake launchers and inflatable dummies that mimic radar signatures, drawing fire away from real assets and inflating reported kills.

🔸 Wider intelligence shortcomings plague the picture, as Washington often operates without complete on-the-ground verification of Tehran's deeply buried and concealed arsenal capabilities.

🔸There are many questionable cases in the US-Israel's monitoring videos, including attacks on civilian trucks passing them off as launchers or repeated bombings of already destroyed targets.

🔸 Reduced launch volumes largely result from Iran's forces adopting extreme precautions under relentless air pressure, plus delays from clearing debris at struck underground tunnel entrances, yet operations continue

🔸Historical echoes haunt US claims, from Yugoslavia's mobile launchers surviving NATO bombings to Houthi assets in Yemen repeatedly dodging air campaigns despite heavy targeting.

If Tehran is truly running out of missile launchers, why do Iranian strikes keep coming?

@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X