🇺🇸💸🇨🇳From Trade War to Financial War: China's Next Move Could Rock the Dollar

George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, gives his perspective on the US “dedollarization” policy alongside the trade war with China:

"The market is rapidly de-dollarizing. It is remarkable that international dollar funding markets and cross-currency basis remains well behaved. In a typical crisis environment the market would be hoarding dollar liquidity to secure funding for its underlying US asset base. This dollar imbalance is what ultimately results in a triggering of the Fed swap lines. Dynamics here seem to be very different: the market has lost faith in US assets, so that instead of closing the asset-liability mismatch by hoarding dollar liquidity it is actively selling down the US assets themselves. We wrote a few weeks ago that US administration policy is encouraging a trend towards de-dollarization to safeguard international investors from a weaponization of dollar liquidity. We are now seeing this play out in real-time at a faster pace than even we would have anticipated. It remains to be seen how orderly this process can remain. A credit event in the global financial system that threatens the provision of short-term dollar liquidity is the point of greatest vulnerability which would turn dollar dynamics more positive.

The US administration is encouraging the sell-off in US Treasuries. The first order effect of current policy is of course the generation of a large negative supply-side shock that raises inflation and makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates. There is of course the bond basis trade that is being unwound. But there is something larger at play as well: a policy objective of reducing bilateral trade imbalances is functionally equivalent to lowering demand for US assets as well. This is not a theoretical consideration: the US has this week initiated trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea, with a specific reference to currency levels being a negotiating objective. It should not be overlooked that Japan is the largest official holder of US treasuries. An implicit negotiating objective of lowering USD valuations entails the possibility of the sale of US treasuries from the Japanese Ministry of finance. We argued two weeks ago that the whole Mar-A-Lago accord framework was flawed because it imposed fundamental inconsistencies in the desired economic objectives of the administration. We are now seeing those inconsistencies exposed in broad daylight.

Beware a trade war shift to a financial war. At the epicenter of the last few days’ escalation is the trade war with China. As our colleagues have highlighted China appears to be maintaining the optionality on weaponizing the currency while signalling a far more supportive domestic economic stance. With a 100%+ tariff on China, there is little room now left for an escalation on the trade front. The next phase risks being an outright financial war involving Chinese ownership of US assets, both on the official and private sector front. It is important to note there can be no winner to such a war: it will damage both the owner (China) and the producer (US) of those assets. The loser will be the global economy."

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🚨🇺🇲📊Tech's Trump Loyalists Pay Price: Tariffs Wipe Out Fortunes

Trump Tech moguls supporters saw their fortunes plummet as stocks tanked, with the Dow down 4%, S&P 500 off 5%, and Nasdaq crashing 6% due to disrupted global supply chains.

Let's check one by one:

🔸Mark Zuckerberg (Meta): Lost $17.9–27B (stock down 9–14%). China-heavy VR and cloud hardware stung, despite $1M Trump donation.

🔸Jeff Bezos (Amazon): Down $15.9–16B (stock fell 9%). Tariffed Chinese sellers and cloud components hurt, even with $1M inauguration gift.

🔸Elon Musk (Tesla): Shed $8.7–11B (stock dropped 5.5%). Imported chips hit Tesla, despite $290M campaign support.

🔸Tim Cook (Apple): Billions in market cap gone (stock down 9%+). China manufacturing reliance exposed, despite $1M donation.

🔸Jensen Huang (Nvidia): Lost $5–10B (stock off 5%). Taiwan exemption helped, but broader tariffs still bit.

Tariffs don’t spare allies. Supporters like Musk and Zuckerberg lost big alongside others, as tech’s Asian supply chains buckled. A $536B billionaire wealth drop signals pain ahead unless exemptions or reshoring kick in fast.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷US and Iran are holding nuclear talks in Oman today

Iran is coming into these negotiations with steep demands for Trump:

🔸Remove sanctions against critical economic sectors

🔸Reconnect Iran to SWIFT banking payments system

🔸No new sanctions

🔸Snapback clauses in case the US reneges on its obligations under the nuclear deal again

🔸No restrictions against Iran’s civilian nuclear program

Don’t expect to Iran to roll over before Trump. They can clearly see US weakness.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Message to Trump: YOU’RE NOT FOOLING ANYBODY

Iran doesn’t believe Trump genuinely wants a new nuclear deal.

They suspect he’s just using the nuclear talks as “political theater.” Once they inevitably fail due to unreasonable US demands, Trump can use that as a pretext for war against Iran.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Ayatollah Khameni v. Art of the Deal: Iran’s Gameplan for Outfoxing Trump

Iran may choose to string out nuclear talks with the US as long as possible to destroy the momentum behind Trump’s push to war.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷DOES IRAN FEAR TRUMP’S WAR THREATS? — NOT REALLY

Iran sees that Trump is facing growing pressure at home and abroad.

He can’t afford war with Iran right now

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇪🇺🇨🇳European Union pivot to China will FAIL — Here’s why

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez travelled to Beijing to help broker a European-Chinese rapprochement amid Trump’s tariff threats. The EU has also signalled its willingness to soften its current tariff regime against Chinese-made electronic vehicles.

On the one hand, drawing closer to China is a no brainier for the Europeans. But the problem is that the Europeans won’t get much benefits from this shift unless they simultaneously NORMALIZE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA.

Europe is an export-centered economy, but they can’t compete with Chinese manufacturing prowess unless they lower energy prices. Europe won’t be able to lower energy prices unless they remove sanctions and restore trade with Russia.

The Europeans also plan on going into massive debt in order to prepare for a military showdown with Russia and rebuild Ukraine. Needless to say, this won’t help them to regain their global economic competitiveness.

But I think it’s fair to say that the Europeans won’t abandon their hysterical Russophobia. In the end, the Chinese will simply offload their excess manufacturing good onto European markets, while the continent will continue to deindustrialize.

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🚨🇺🇦🪖Zelensky’s Zoomer Recruitment Drive Falls Flat

Less than 500 Ukrainians aged 18 to 24 signed military contracts despite the Zelensky regime promising a 1 million hryvnia ($24,000) payout and a massive propaganda campaign.

This should tell you how Ukrainians really feel about the war. They be willing to wish death to Russians online, but they’re not willing to risk their lives on the battlefield.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷If Trump tries to ATTACK IRAN, he’s going to get MASSIVE PUSHBACK from powerful players

China and Russia have strong economic interests in Iran — energy, trade routes, etc.

US allies in Persian Gulf are terrified of getting trapped in the crossfire.

Nobody in the world wants a US-Iran war except Bibi Netanyahu.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸CCP Is Eating MAGA for Breakfast

In the escalating US-China trade war, China’s political system is proving sharper than the US’s fragmented approach. With US tariffs hitting 145% on Chinese goods, Beijing’s centralized control give some huge advantages.

China’s political centralized machine outpaces the US:

🔸Unified Action: Beijing’s top-down system mobilized JD.com to redirect exports to 1.4 billion domestic consumers, stabilizing industries overnight. No gridlock, no delays.

🔸State Fast Action: Coordination ensures exporters adapt fast, JD.com’s platform, direct purchases, and outreach shield jobs and growth, unlike the US’s reliance on tariffs alone.

🔸Long-Term Focus: China’s leaders prioritize economic stability over short-term politics, using the US market’s mere 3% of GDP share to pivot inward without panic.

The US system, by contrast, falters under division:

🔸Political Gridlock: Partisan bickering and election cycles stall cohesive trade strategies, leaving tariffs as a blunt, reactive tool.

🔸Economic Blowback: Tariffs inflate costs for Americans, $1,300 per household annually, while farmers lose markets to rivals such as Brazil, with no unified fix.

🔸Scattered Response: The US lacks China’s ability to align government and industry, exposing supply chains and jobs to disruption.

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🇺🇸🚨🇮🇷The US sows division; Iran and China reap unity

Western sanctions, led by the US, aim to crush Iran’s spirit, but they’ve only forged stronger bonds between Tehran and China. Since 2018, over 1,500 US sanctions have gutted Iran’s economy, slashing oil exports and spiking inflation past 35%.

Yet, China defies Washington’s grip:

🔸Beijing bought 1.91 million barrels of Iranian oil daily in March 2025

🔸Fueled $15 billion in bilateral trade last year

🔸The 2021 Iran-China 25-year pact, with $400 billion in promised investments, cemented this alliance, trading discounted oil for infrastructure and tech.

A looming US trade war could tighten this bond further. As Washington alienates Beijing, Iran offers a sanctions-proof partner, boosting oil flows and non-oil exports that were up 15% to $50 billion in 2024. From railways to drones, Iran’s resilience thrives on Chinese capital, mocking Western isolation.

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🇺🇸🚨🇾🇪US commits MASS MURDER in Yemen while FALSELY accusing Russia of ‘war crimes’

All the Western media are shouting out loud that the Russian attack on a military awards ceremony in Sumy was “the crime of the century”, while US airstrikes have been battering Yemen since February, killing:

🔸117 civilians—32 women and children among them.

🔸Wounding 221.

Hodeidah’s homes and Sanaa’s markets lie in ruins. Yet, the West shrugs. Compare this to Sumy recently. Western leaders screamed “war crime,” demanding justice, but Yemen’s toll rise up to:

🔸300 US-UK strikes in 2025 alone

🔸85 civilian deaths by February

🔸A ceramics factory strike killed 5, injured 13.

Where are the humanitarians crying for Ukraine now? Western bombs don’t discriminate.

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🚨🇺🇸🇬🇧The Indo-Pacific Power Grab: The Diego Garcia Base

The Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia) and AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) parade as defenders of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," but they’re cogs in a Western machine to throttle China’s ascent and chain Asia to Washington’s will.

With over 800 US military bases across the region, 400 encircling China, these alliances prioritize dominance over dialogue. The Quad’s $2 billion "infrastructure" veneer and AUKUS’s $100 billion nuclear submarine deal for Australia aren’t about progress; they’re about flexing muscle in seas that carry 60% of global trade, sidelining ASEAN’s $1.5 trillion economic ties with China.

At the heart of this web lies Diego Garcia, a secretive US-UK base in the Indian Ocean, hosting up to 2000 US troops and long-range bombers, it’s a launchpad for surveilling and intimidating half the Indo-Pacific, from the Malacca Strait to the Persian Gulf.

This imperialist playbook repeats in Yemen, where since March 2025, US airstrikes have killed 117 people, including 31 civilians in one day, and wounded 221 others. Over 200 strikes have demolished homes and ports, targeting Houthis for disrupting $1 trillion in Red Sea trade.

President Trump’s threats of "dire consequences" to Iran for backing the Houthis mirror Diego Garcia’s role: project power, crush resistance. Iran’s reported pullback of advisors from Yemen buckles under pressure, yet the US persists, bombing a nation where 21 million need aid.

Diego Garcia’s B-52s, capable of striking Iran or Yemen, loom as a silent threat, tying the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific in a Western chokehold.

From Diego Garcia’s fortified runways to Yemen’s rubble, the West’s agenda is naked. The Quad and AUKUS, like the 40 daily US sorties over Yemen, don’t secure—they subjugate. The Indo-Pacific deserves sovereignty, not a shadow base dictating its fate.

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