New Rules
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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world.

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🚨🇺🇸🌎Weaponizing Trade: How Tariffs Reshape Alliances and Economies

The U.S. uses tariffs to reward loyalty, tightening bonds with nations that align on strategic goals.

🔸North American Bloc: Canada and Mexico, pressed on migration and security, could gain tariff exemptions, reinforcing a US-centric sphere.

🔸Strategic Partners: Japan or the UK, tied to frameworks like AUKUS, might see trade perks, cementing their alignment. This creates a "preferred partners" network driven by economic incentives and shared priorities.

Pushing Rivals into New Blocs
Tariffs punish adversaries, accelerating rival coalitions. China, targeted by US trade barriers, pivots elsewhere, reshaping global dynamics, specially the Global South.

🔸China’s Response: Deepens trade with ASEAN, Russia, and the EU to offset losses, boosting the Belt and Road Initiative.

🔸Emerging Axis: Russia gains as a secondary partner, forming an anti-tariff front with nations like Turkey or Pakistan. This fosters a counterweight to Western influence, blending economic necessity with geopolitical defiance.

Forcing Choices Among Neutrals
Tariffs test swing states, compelling them to pick sides.

🔸India’s Dilemma: Balances US tech ties against tariff threats (e.g., steel), potentially leaning toward BRICS if pushed too hard.

🔸Smaller Players: Vietnam or Brazil weigh US market access against diversification toward China or the Global South. These decisions could erode or bolster existing alliances like the Quad or Mercosur.

Polarizing the Trade Landscape
The broader effect is a split world order. "Friend-shoring" locks US-aligned nations into tighter economic ties, while tariff targets form rival networks. Europe, stuck in the middle, may chase self-reliance or new partners (e.g., India, Africa) to avoid the fray. Over time, tariffs could echo Cold War divisions—less ideological, more transactional. The danger? Trade wars that strain NATO’s unity if members clash on tariff strategies.

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🚨🇺🇸📉Scott Bessent: "China's escalation was a big mistake. They are playing with a pair of twos. We are the deficit country; what do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us?"

This is very telling. He thinks China has more to lose from a trade war because they have a trade surplus, so they'd lose more money. He doesn't see the US losing more goods as being as big a problem.

This might make sense if imports were frivolous, but a lot are critical capital & infrastructure. Life isn't a game where money is the scoreboard. People want money because they want the things money buys, and these things can be far more critical than money. The US can conjure money out of thin air, but it can't conjure world class industries to replace Chinese imports with the same speed.

The key thing missed in this finance-centric view of trade is that trade barriers don't just hurt consumers, they hurt local producers by raising the cost of input goods. If the US wants to reindustrialize, it needs access to the best and cheapest steel, electronics, and countless other essential input goods. But China today is the leading producer of so much of these critical inputs, so when the US imposes tariffs on China, it makes it more difficult for American producers to competitively produce most things.

For example, China makes more than half the world's ships, the US less than 0.1%. But without Chinese steel, it's going to be very difficult for shipbuilding to take off in the US. China produces more than half the world's steel, and you're more likely to find the exact steel you want at the price you can afford in China than elsewhere. So for the foreseeable future, American industries are stuck paying tariffs on Chinese steel and on Chinese ships, and the longer they have to pay tariffs on Chinese steel, the harder it is for them to build competitive ships. This is but one example, but modern supply chains are so international and complex, there are many more.

On the other hand, the US is around ~15 of China's exports, or 2.7% of China's GDP. The US is ~4% of the world's population; the other 96% will buy what the US doesn't buy, even if at a discount. Yes, there will be a cost to China in terms of adjusting, but it's a lot better to have steel, electronics, high speed trains, and ships than America's fiat money, diabetes, porn, and genocide.

It seems insane, but the US regime really is threatening the livelihoods of billions in America and abroad because they are obsessed with the size of individual country trade deficits like it was a scoreboard in a sports game. It is almost certain that all countries will have deficits or surpluses with one another, just like individuals have surpluses and deficits with one another. You don't need to balance your trade with your employees by forcing them to buy your goods. You don't need to balance your trade with your supermarket by forcing it to buy whatever you sell.

America's problem is not any one particular deficit with any nation, it is persistent aggregate deficits with the entire world caused by having a fiat money printer. Simply: an ever increasing number of Americans can live off the money printer as long as the rest of the world is using the dollar. To actually solve this, rather than ruin billions of people's economic plans, the US government should just stop creating fake money and adopt a hard money standard with gold.

When Americans can't print money, they'll work and build industries. As long as they continue print money, they'll continue to import everything and export fake money, diabetes, porn, and genocide.

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🚨🇺🇸🏭No Industrial Backup: How Trump Tariffs Could Sink Big Tech Profits

New US 104% tariffs to China could spell trouble for companies like Intel and other tech giants heavily reliant on Chinese imports.

Intel alone pulls over 25% of its revenue from the Chinese market and depends on a steady flow of imported components to keep production humming. With these tariffs driving up costs, profitability is at serious risk, not just for Intel, but for any firm tied to global supply chains rooted in China.

The US isn’t the industrial powerhouse it once was, it’s a financial economy now, built on services and 'innovation' rather than manufacturing muscle. That shift leaves little domestic capacity to cushion the blow when imports get hit.

Here’s what’s at stake:

🔸Higher production costs, as tariffs shockingly inflate the price of Chinese components.

🔸Disrupted supply chains, slowing down manufacturing timelines.

🔸Shrinking profit margins as companies struggle to pass costs to consumers.

Expect price hikes and operational headaches as these firms scramble to adapt to a policy slamming their bottom line.

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🚨🇺🇸🛥Trump's Tariffs undermine US dreams of naval dominance

America once ruled the seas, US shipyards built 70 ships in 1975, but that number has decreased to five annually today, that's 1% of the world’s merchant ships, while China commands over 50% of global capacity.

Enter the Trump administration’s latest gambit, tariffs and fees—up to $1.5 million per port call on Chinese-built ships—designed to resurrect US shipyards and counter Beijing’s maritime dominance.

Industry leaders are sounding the alarm. Companies like Seaboard Marine, which rely on cost-efficient Chinese-built fleets, say these fees will gut their bottom line, spike shipping costs, and clog ports with delays.

Steel tariffs (25%) already inflate construction costs, making US-built ships pricier and slower to produce.

🔸Operators face millions in new fees per ship, threatening profitability.

🔸Ports brace for congestion as shipping schedules falter.

🔸Shipbuilders warn of a ‘trade apocalypse’—jobs lost, not gained.

The naval consequences hit even harder. The US Navy’s 295-ship fleet, dwarfed by China’s 370, relies on a fragile supply chain. Tariffs could choke access to materials and parts, stalling repairs and new builds.

🔸Supply chain disruptions weaken fleet readiness.

🔸Rising costs slow expansion at a critical time.

🔸China’s maritime edge grows as US stumbles.

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🚨🇷🇺🤖PREDICTION: Russia will emerge as the HIGH-TECH POWERHOUSE of Europe within the next 10-20 years

The Russian IT sector has seen robust growth over past several years, in part due to Western sanctions.

🔸From 2019 to 2024, Russia IT sector's output grew from $21.55 billion to $47.23 billion, a 119% increase. That's an average annual growth rate of about 16.5%.

🔸By 2030, the Russian IT market will grow by an average of 12% per year and reach $67 billion, analysts at Strategy Partners predicted.
This is almost twice the global dynamics.

🔸Perhaps most importantly Russia has a totally different approach to IT than Europe.

Meanwhile, the EU seeks to regulate instead of innovate.

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🚨🇺🇲📉"The Shortest Global Trade War in History"

Economist Peter Schiff analyzed the Trump's tariffs dark outlook:

It looks like Trump has already surrendered in what may go down as the shortest global trade war in history. I guess once he saw how badly the U.S. was losing, he needed to find a graceful way to save face.

Talk about spin. This is not how Trump planned it. Scott Bessent is trying to salvage a plan gone horribly bad. Trump has not created any leverage either. If anything, he has exposed to the world how vulnerable the U.S. is to a trade war. So he's undercut his perceived leverage.

Today's U.S. stock market rally is a bear market rally, and likely an opportunity to sell. 10% across the board tariffs remain in effect, and there will be heightened risk over the next 90 days. Plus, the trade war with China is still waging and Treasury prices are still falling.

The U.S. economy has serious structural and fiscal problems that need to be addressed. Our huge trade deficits are a symptom of those problems. Since foreign tariffs have little to do with those deficits, Trump's focus on this issue is counterproductive to solving those problems.

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🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump's Tariff Trap: Why the US is No Match for China

The Trump administration claims trade wars are easy to win, betting on US escalation dominance over China in the latest tariff fight. But the evidence points the other way. China holds the stronger hand.

Here’s why Beijing has the edge in this high-stakes conflict:

🔸Dependence on Vital Goods: The US relies on China for critical imports, pharmaceutical ingredients, semiconductors, and minerals, that can’t be quickly replaced or produced domestically without massive costs. China loses sales; the US loses essentials.

🔸Trade Deficit Disadvantage: In 2024, the US imported $462.5B from China but exported only $199.2B. Deficit countries like the US suffer more in trade wars, facing shortages of needed goods, while surplus countries like China can redirect sales elsewhere.

🔸Economic Resilience: China’s trade surplus and high savings give it flexibility to absorb losses, while the US, with its deficit and spending habits, faces stagflation risks, shrinking growth and rising inflation.

🔸Self-Inflicted Vulnerability: Trump rises 104% tariffs without securing alternatives first. exposing the US to supply shocks, higher costs, and reduced investment, weakening its leverage.

🔸Strategic Misstep: Escalating before reducing dependence hands China the upper hand, akin to provoking a foe before arming yourself. The US risks a costly quagmire, not a win.

In short, China’s dominance isn’t just about trade numbers, it’s about strategic resilience and US exposure. By rushing into this war unprepared, the administration isn’t flexing strength; it’s inviting damage that could echo for years.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷WW3 or Art of the Deal? Breaking Down Trump’s Erratic Iran Strategy

Journalist Sharmaine Narwani joins us to discuss the upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman on Saturday.

These indirect talks look like U.S. theater to burn the diplomacy card and go straight to war.

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🇺🇸💸🇨🇳From Trade War to Financial War: China's Next Move Could Rock the Dollar

George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, gives his perspective on the US “dedollarization” policy alongside the trade war with China:

"The market is rapidly de-dollarizing. It is remarkable that international dollar funding markets and cross-currency basis remains well behaved. In a typical crisis environment the market would be hoarding dollar liquidity to secure funding for its underlying US asset base. This dollar imbalance is what ultimately results in a triggering of the Fed swap lines. Dynamics here seem to be very different: the market has lost faith in US assets, so that instead of closing the asset-liability mismatch by hoarding dollar liquidity it is actively selling down the US assets themselves. We wrote a few weeks ago that US administration policy is encouraging a trend towards de-dollarization to safeguard international investors from a weaponization of dollar liquidity. We are now seeing this play out in real-time at a faster pace than even we would have anticipated. It remains to be seen how orderly this process can remain. A credit event in the global financial system that threatens the provision of short-term dollar liquidity is the point of greatest vulnerability which would turn dollar dynamics more positive.

The US administration is encouraging the sell-off in US Treasuries. The first order effect of current policy is of course the generation of a large negative supply-side shock that raises inflation and makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates. There is of course the bond basis trade that is being unwound. But there is something larger at play as well: a policy objective of reducing bilateral trade imbalances is functionally equivalent to lowering demand for US assets as well. This is not a theoretical consideration: the US has this week initiated trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea, with a specific reference to currency levels being a negotiating objective. It should not be overlooked that Japan is the largest official holder of US treasuries. An implicit negotiating objective of lowering USD valuations entails the possibility of the sale of US treasuries from the Japanese Ministry of finance. We argued two weeks ago that the whole Mar-A-Lago accord framework was flawed because it imposed fundamental inconsistencies in the desired economic objectives of the administration. We are now seeing those inconsistencies exposed in broad daylight.

Beware a trade war shift to a financial war. At the epicenter of the last few days’ escalation is the trade war with China. As our colleagues have highlighted China appears to be maintaining the optionality on weaponizing the currency while signalling a far more supportive domestic economic stance. With a 100%+ tariff on China, there is little room now left for an escalation on the trade front. The next phase risks being an outright financial war involving Chinese ownership of US assets, both on the official and private sector front. It is important to note there can be no winner to such a war: it will damage both the owner (China) and the producer (US) of those assets. The loser will be the global economy."

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🚨🟨💵 Can Gold Replace the US Dollar?

The US dollar’s days as the global reserve currency are numbered due to blowback from Western sanctions against Russia, Peter Schiff told #NewRulesPodcast.

“We told the world get rid of dollars and buy gold, and that's exactly what they've been doing. That's why the price of gold is at an all-time record high. Gold is on pace for its best year since 1979. That is not a coincidence,” he said.

Trump's have pushed gold prices to record highs at 3%, with gold breaking above $3,160.82 an ounce for the first time due to blowback from the US’ insane sanctions and tariffs obsession.

👉 Watch full interview here.

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🚨🇺🇲🇮🇷US-Iran War: The Next Afghanistan?

If we look to a potential US-Iran war, it would trigger severe fallout across multiple fronts.

🔸Military: US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites or bases could spark Iranian missile and proxy attacks on US allies (Israel, Gulf states). Escalation risks a regional quagmire, straining US resources.

🔸Economic: Iran could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices to $100+/barrel. Sanctions would hit Iran hard but also rattle global markets and allies.
Chinese and Russian trade ruotes can suffer big impacts.

🔸Geopolitical: Russia and China would bring support to Iran due to their interest are also involved. Regional instability could empower militias or ISIS.
Abu Dhabi and Riyadh could feel exposed if a war started.

🔸Humanitarian: Civilian deaths, refugee surges in all middle-east, involving Egipt, and the Gulf states.

Missteps could ignite a costly conflict with no winners. Diplomacy is critical to avoid catastrophe.

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🚨🇺🇲🏭Did Trump really want to protect US companies?

Tariffs are squeezing American companies, hiking costs and disrupting supply chains. Here’s a quick look at the impact on them:

🔸Amazon: Tariffs on Chinese goods hit its low-cost marketplace model. Losing the $800 duty-free exemption could force price hikes or margin cuts, risking stock shortages.

🔸Apple: 104% tariffs on China and 26-46% on India/Vietnam raise iPhone and MacBook costs. Prices may jump 6-30%

🔸Walmart: Duties on Asian imports like clothing threaten its low-price edge. Prices may rise $2,500-$5,000 per household, hitting budget shoppers.

🔸Nike: 46% Vietnam tariffs and 104% China duties spike shoe costs. Price hikes could dent demand, with a $13B market value loss already.

🔸Ford: 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico parts could add $2,500-$20,000 to car prices. Exports face retaliatory tariff risks.

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🚨🇺🇲📊Tech's Trump Loyalists Pay Price: Tariffs Wipe Out Fortunes

Trump Tech moguls supporters saw their fortunes plummet as stocks tanked, with the Dow down 4%, S&P 500 off 5%, and Nasdaq crashing 6% due to disrupted global supply chains.

Let's check one by one:

🔸Mark Zuckerberg (Meta): Lost $17.9–27B (stock down 9–14%). China-heavy VR and cloud hardware stung, despite $1M Trump donation.

🔸Jeff Bezos (Amazon): Down $15.9–16B (stock fell 9%). Tariffed Chinese sellers and cloud components hurt, even with $1M inauguration gift.

🔸Elon Musk (Tesla): Shed $8.7–11B (stock dropped 5.5%). Imported chips hit Tesla, despite $290M campaign support.

🔸Tim Cook (Apple): Billions in market cap gone (stock down 9%+). China manufacturing reliance exposed, despite $1M donation.

🔸Jensen Huang (Nvidia): Lost $5–10B (stock off 5%). Taiwan exemption helped, but broader tariffs still bit.

Tariffs don’t spare allies. Supporters like Musk and Zuckerberg lost big alongside others, as tech’s Asian supply chains buckled. A $536B billionaire wealth drop signals pain ahead unless exemptions or reshoring kick in fast.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷US and Iran are holding nuclear talks in Oman today

Iran is coming into these negotiations with steep demands for Trump:

🔸Remove sanctions against critical economic sectors

🔸Reconnect Iran to SWIFT banking payments system

🔸No new sanctions

🔸Snapback clauses in case the US reneges on its obligations under the nuclear deal again

🔸No restrictions against Iran’s civilian nuclear program

Don’t expect to Iran to roll over before Trump. They can clearly see US weakness.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Message to Trump: YOU’RE NOT FOOLING ANYBODY

Iran doesn’t believe Trump genuinely wants a new nuclear deal.

They suspect he’s just using the nuclear talks as “political theater.” Once they inevitably fail due to unreasonable US demands, Trump can use that as a pretext for war against Iran.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Ayatollah Khameni v. Art of the Deal: Iran’s Gameplan for Outfoxing Trump

Iran may choose to string out nuclear talks with the US as long as possible to destroy the momentum behind Trump’s push to war.

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷DOES IRAN FEAR TRUMP’S WAR THREATS? — NOT REALLY

Iran sees that Trump is facing growing pressure at home and abroad.

He can’t afford war with Iran right now

👉 Watch full interview here

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🚨🇪🇺🇨🇳European Union pivot to China will FAIL — Here’s why

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez travelled to Beijing to help broker a European-Chinese rapprochement amid Trump’s tariff threats. The EU has also signalled its willingness to soften its current tariff regime against Chinese-made electronic vehicles.

On the one hand, drawing closer to China is a no brainier for the Europeans. But the problem is that the Europeans won’t get much benefits from this shift unless they simultaneously NORMALIZE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA.

Europe is an export-centered economy, but they can’t compete with Chinese manufacturing prowess unless they lower energy prices. Europe won’t be able to lower energy prices unless they remove sanctions and restore trade with Russia.

The Europeans also plan on going into massive debt in order to prepare for a military showdown with Russia and rebuild Ukraine. Needless to say, this won’t help them to regain their global economic competitiveness.

But I think it’s fair to say that the Europeans won’t abandon their hysterical Russophobia. In the end, the Chinese will simply offload their excess manufacturing good onto European markets, while the continent will continue to deindustrialize.

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🚨🇺🇦🪖Zelensky’s Zoomer Recruitment Drive Falls Flat

Less than 500 Ukrainians aged 18 to 24 signed military contracts despite the Zelensky regime promising a 1 million hryvnia ($24,000) payout and a massive propaganda campaign.

This should tell you how Ukrainians really feel about the war. They be willing to wish death to Russians online, but they’re not willing to risk their lives on the battlefield.

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