Forwarded from Grandmasters of Geopolitics
US President Donald Trump has publicly praised Syria's new leader, Ahmed al Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al‑Jolani, while admitting personal credit for his rise to power.
"The president of Syria, who I essentially put there, is doing a phenomenal job... He's not a choir boy. A choir boy couldn't do it," Trump stated.
Before seizing power, Jolani led Hay'at Tahrir al‑Sham (HTS), a former al‑Qaeda affiliate, in the overthrow of Bashar al‑Assad's government in December 2024.
A $10 million US bounty on his head was removed weeks after he took Damascus.
Since seizing power, HTS forces have conducted at least three mass ethnic cleansing campaigns. First came the attacks on Alawite communities. Then Druze areas. Now Kurdish regions have come under pressure. In January 2026, Jolani's forces attacked Kurdish-majority districts around Aleppo. An estimated 150,000 people — including Kurds, Christians and Yazidis — were displaced.
Around 800 Yazidi families have been forced to return to Afrin — under the control of the same extremist factions that drove them out years ago.
Meanwhile, despite Western rehabilitation efforts, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council.
Trump has signalled where this might lead. Speaking about Israel's war in Lebanon, he said:
"If Israel can't do the job without killing everyone else, Syria will do the job."
The implication is clear: If Syrian jihadist factions are unleashed across the Lebanese front, the consequences are entirely predictable. Despite Trump's statement, Sunni militants would target Shia civilians, including Hezbollah supporters, with the same brutality seen in Latakia, Suwayda and Deir ez‑Zor.
Syrian Alawite leader, Sheikh Ghazal, accused Jolani's forces of behaviour amounting to "clear Nazism".
"They kill us in our places of worship, in our homes, assassinate us in our places of business."
It seems Trump will stop at nothing — and is ready to unleash his Syrian attack dog, making others pay the price.
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 President Trump:
‘Think of what Israel is getting. They’re not going to be nuked.
I told Bibi. ‘Bibi, they’d drop a nuclear bomb right into the middle of Israel’.
They’d only need one, and there would be no more Israel.’
@Middle_East_Spectator
‘Think of what Israel is getting. They’re not going to be nuked.
I told Bibi. ‘Bibi, they’d drop a nuclear bomb right into the middle of Israel’.
They’d only need one, and there would be no more Israel.’
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
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Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
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🇮🇷🇺🇸🇰🇼| Interview with the Iranian pilots who bombed US bases in Kuwait:
We attacked the US Buehring base. It was as if God turned each of our bombs into several bombs. The scale of the fire was so huge that we even saw several helicopters bursting into flames and then exploding.
The area was thrown into chaos, and they started activating their air defenses.
During our turn, we saw them firing missiles at targets in the sky.
My back-seat cockpit officer told me that an explosion had happened in the sky, we were confused about where they were being hit from.
By mistake, their aircraft also took off and the 3 American F-15s that were coming for a counterattack toward our Iran, the Kuwaitis mistook them for targets & shot them down.
By God’s grace, they destroyed all 3 of them at the same time.
They weren’t able to intercept & track us because of our deceiving tactics.
@FotrosResistancee
We attacked the US Buehring base. It was as if God turned each of our bombs into several bombs. The scale of the fire was so huge that we even saw several helicopters bursting into flames and then exploding.
The area was thrown into chaos, and they started activating their air defenses.
During our turn, we saw them firing missiles at targets in the sky.
My back-seat cockpit officer told me that an explosion had happened in the sky, we were confused about where they were being hit from.
By mistake, their aircraft also took off and the 3 American F-15s that were coming for a counterattack toward our Iran, the Kuwaitis mistook them for targets & shot them down.
By God’s grace, they destroyed all 3 of them at the same time.
They weren’t able to intercept & track us because of our deceiving tactics.
@FotrosResistancee
🤡1
Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
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🇮🇷🇺🇸🇰🇼| Iranian F-5 pilot who bombed US Buehring base in Kuwait:
We were flying at an extremely, extremely low altitude.
From a flight-standard perspective, the standard training altitude is around 500 feet, but we were below 50 feet.
We knew that Patriot systems were deployed in the area, and that this base had multi-layered air defense. Given Kuwait’s cooperation, they were protecting this base, and scrambled F-18s were monitoring it.
Even though we knew AWACS aircraft were up there and surveillance/listening sites were active, the entire flight was conducted under complete radio silence.
I should mention here that there were 2-3 ships, we were flying so low that we passed between 2 ships, and their decks were higher than us. In other words, the sailors were looking down at us from the deck.
We passed through there, and thank God, entered Kuwaiti waters, and from there entered Kuwait itself.
When we entered Kuwait, the high-voltage power lines suddenly became 10x times more numerous. Their refineries and forces were along our route, all of them were within our reach.
We could have bombed them immediately without any problem. But our target was Camp Buehring.
We carried out this route at very high speed and very low altitude. And then, when we reached the base, we bombed it successfully.
@FotrosResistancee
We were flying at an extremely, extremely low altitude.
From a flight-standard perspective, the standard training altitude is around 500 feet, but we were below 50 feet.
We knew that Patriot systems were deployed in the area, and that this base had multi-layered air defense. Given Kuwait’s cooperation, they were protecting this base, and scrambled F-18s were monitoring it.
Even though we knew AWACS aircraft were up there and surveillance/listening sites were active, the entire flight was conducted under complete radio silence.
I should mention here that there were 2-3 ships, we were flying so low that we passed between 2 ships, and their decks were higher than us. In other words, the sailors were looking down at us from the deck.
We passed through there, and thank God, entered Kuwaiti waters, and from there entered Kuwait itself.
When we entered Kuwait, the high-voltage power lines suddenly became 10x times more numerous. Their refineries and forces were along our route, all of them were within our reach.
We could have bombed them immediately without any problem. But our target was Camp Buehring.
We carried out this route at very high speed and very low altitude. And then, when we reached the base, we bombed it successfully.
@FotrosResistancee
❤1🤡1
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The White House has released the full text of the 14-point MoU:
1. The U.S. and Iran and their allies in the current war declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
2. The U.S. and Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
3. The U.S. and Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing, the U.S. will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days atter the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MoU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, in considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with the Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as part of a final deal.
7. The U.S. undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.
9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, sanctions waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.
12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and subsequent final agreement.
13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.
@Middle_East_Spectator
1. The U.S. and Iran and their allies in the current war declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
2. The U.S. and Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
3. The U.S. and Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing, the U.S. will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days atter the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MoU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, in considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with the Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as part of a final deal.
7. The U.S. undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.
9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, sanctions waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.
12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and subsequent final agreement.
13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 CONFIRMED:
✅ The United States of America has granted the Islamic Republic of Iran the future administration and management of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, after consultation with Oman.
@Middle_East_Spectator
✅ The United States of America has granted the Islamic Republic of Iran the future administration and management of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, after consultation with Oman.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 About Iran’s frozen funds:
If we look at Paragraph 11, it becomes clear that Iran’s frozen funds are not immediately released, but rather it is stated the process of releasing them will be initiated.
The paragraph says the U.S. simply UNDERTAKES (i.e. agrees to begin) the release of funds, and that Iran and the U.S. will ‘mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds’. This means it’s not immediate, contrary to the words of Araqchi.
Another clause that pertains to this matter is Paragraph 13. There, it says the final 60-days negotiations will start once the U.S. ‘begins’ to implement the other paragraphs (including the release of frozen funds).
In practice, this means that the funds will merely begin the ‘process’ of being released upon signing the MoU. Paragraph 13 was designed to ensure that Iran will receive the funds before negotiations will proceed (before the 60-days for a final deal), but it doesn’t actually say that! It only says the process must have been initiated.
This is an important detail that slipped the mind of Iranian officials. Instead of starting the 60-days negotiations when the U.S. has ‘begun’ to implement Paragraph 11, it should have been stated that Iran will enter final negotiations once the provisions in Paragraph 11 have been ‘COMPLETED’.
@Middle_East_Spectator
If we look at Paragraph 11, it becomes clear that Iran’s frozen funds are not immediately released, but rather it is stated the process of releasing them will be initiated.
The paragraph says the U.S. simply UNDERTAKES (i.e. agrees to begin) the release of funds, and that Iran and the U.S. will ‘mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds’. This means it’s not immediate, contrary to the words of Araqchi.
Another clause that pertains to this matter is Paragraph 13. There, it says the final 60-days negotiations will start once the U.S. ‘begins’ to implement the other paragraphs (including the release of frozen funds).
In practice, this means that the funds will merely begin the ‘process’ of being released upon signing the MoU. Paragraph 13 was designed to ensure that Iran will receive the funds before negotiations will proceed (before the 60-days for a final deal), but it doesn’t actually say that! It only says the process must have been initiated.
This is an important detail that slipped the mind of Iranian officials. Instead of starting the 60-days negotiations when the U.S. has ‘begun’ to implement Paragraph 11, it should have been stated that Iran will enter final negotiations once the provisions in Paragraph 11 have been ‘COMPLETED’.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Another small problem, in Paragraph 8:
Iran has agreed to downblend its enriched uranium stockpile inside Iran.
Although this is the best-case scenario compared to transfering it abroad, and it would have likely been agreed upon later anyway, the fact is that Araqchi insisted no such commitment was made in the MoU.
Luckily, the MoU does not specify any technical details or frameworks to actually ensure the implementation of this clause. That’s the most important part. After all, words and promises mean nothing.
(Of course it should be noted this concession was made in exchange for the complete removal of all sanctions)
@Middle_East_Spectator
Iran has agreed to downblend its enriched uranium stockpile inside Iran.
Although this is the best-case scenario compared to transfering it abroad, and it would have likely been agreed upon later anyway, the fact is that Araqchi insisted no such commitment was made in the MoU.
Luckily, the MoU does not specify any technical details or frameworks to actually ensure the implementation of this clause. That’s the most important part. After all, words and promises mean nothing.
(Of course it should be noted this concession was made in exchange for the complete removal of all sanctions)
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 An analysis on this section of Paragraph 4:
‘The United States of America undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days of a final deal’
I have three criticisms on this clause, depending on which it can be either good or bad.
1. The forces should have been withdrawn immediately within 30 days of signing the MoU and before the final 60 days of negotiations begin. This would ensure that the negotiations for a final deal do not happen under a threat of military force. Withdrawing after the final deal is good, but defeats the purpose.
2. It has not been specified what ‘proximity’ of Iran means, what sort of forces and assets will be withdrawn (what about defensive assets like THAAD / Patriot?), and whether the withdrawal is a general withdrawal of American forces from the region or it only includes the forces that amassed as a part of Operation Epic Fury.
3. There is no specified mechanism for ensuring the implentation of the clause.
@Middle_East_Spectator
‘The United States of America undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days of a final deal’
I have three criticisms on this clause, depending on which it can be either good or bad.
1. The forces should have been withdrawn immediately within 30 days of signing the MoU and before the final 60 days of negotiations begin. This would ensure that the negotiations for a final deal do not happen under a threat of military force. Withdrawing after the final deal is good, but defeats the purpose.
2. It has not been specified what ‘proximity’ of Iran means, what sort of forces and assets will be withdrawn (what about defensive assets like THAAD / Patriot?), and whether the withdrawal is a general withdrawal of American forces from the region or it only includes the forces that amassed as a part of Operation Epic Fury.
3. There is no specified mechanism for ensuring the implentation of the clause.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 And perhaps my biggest problem with the MoU is the $300 Billion reconstruction fund
While it may seem like a very large sum of money, a couple important things should be noted.
First of all, this reconstruction fund won’t be supplied to Iran directly by giving money. It’s an ‘investment program’, and it’s not government-funded. In other words, private companies will invest in Iran’s economy to participate in reconstruction, rebuild, and take part in Iran’s industry.
It’s very doubtful that private companies would even want to invest in Iran, a country with quite a bad and corrupt economy (unfortunately). Even if they do invest, Iran doesn’t control where the money goes.
This creates two problems. On the one hand, Arab / Western companies will hold influence over Iran because of their investments in rebuilding projects. This increases the risk of economic coercion and even espionage activities.
On the other hand, these companies definitely won’t engage in any projects that involve the IRGC, which is a big problem. The IRGC plays a very important part in Iran’s building sector. If money won’t flow into those projects, rebuilding won’t be truly and properly done—it will be extremely limited and on the enemy’s terms.
@Middle_East_Spectator
While it may seem like a very large sum of money, a couple important things should be noted.
First of all, this reconstruction fund won’t be supplied to Iran directly by giving money. It’s an ‘investment program’, and it’s not government-funded. In other words, private companies will invest in Iran’s economy to participate in reconstruction, rebuild, and take part in Iran’s industry.
It’s very doubtful that private companies would even want to invest in Iran, a country with quite a bad and corrupt economy (unfortunately). Even if they do invest, Iran doesn’t control where the money goes.
This creates two problems. On the one hand, Arab / Western companies will hold influence over Iran because of their investments in rebuilding projects. This increases the risk of economic coercion and even espionage activities.
On the other hand, these companies definitely won’t engage in any projects that involve the IRGC, which is a big problem. The IRGC plays a very important part in Iran’s building sector. If money won’t flow into those projects, rebuilding won’t be truly and properly done—it will be extremely limited and on the enemy’s terms.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The White House has released the full text of the 14-point MoU: 1. The U.S. and Iran and their allies in the current war declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake…
Forwarded from Mediterranean Man (Lhiet)
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⚡🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Donald Trump says he does not view the reported 60-day timeframe for negotiations with Iran as a hard deadline.
"Could take longer. I don't view it as hard. Just as long as they are behaving, I really don't care that much," Trump told reporters.
@medmannews
"Could take longer. I don't view it as hard. Just as long as they are behaving, I really don't care that much," Trump told reporters.
@medmannews