ATTENTION!
Thread 1 of 2:
The current military situation in the Middle East involving Israel (IS) and Iran (IR) is volatile & marked by a significant escalation in direct conflict between both nations.
Background: The last 48-72 hrs escalated when Israel launched a large-scale air campaign, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," targeting IR’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior leadership. This followed intel indicating IR had amassed enough enriched uranium to produce up to 15 NUCs w/in days. IR retaliated with missile and drone attacks on IS, leading to a cycle of strikes and counterstrikes.
Key players: IS, supported by U.S. intell but not direct military involvement (yet), is engaged in offensive operations against IR. IR, backed by its "Axis of Resistance" (including HZ, the Houthis, Hamas), is responding with retaliatory strikes. Other regional actors, such as SY, JO, TU and SA, play peripheral roles, with varying degrees of involvement.
Key Tactical Developments:
IS conducted over 200 airstrikes targeting IR's nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Esfahan, and possibly Fordow), ballistic missile bases (Kermanshah Province), air defense systems, and command-and-control structures. These strikes killed key IR military figures, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, top military official Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. UNCONFIRMED reports the Ayatollah is wounded.
IS employed advanced tactics, including kamikaze drones launched from within IR, which disrupted air defenses and delayed IR's immediate counterattack capabilities.
The operation aimed to degrade IR's nuclear program, suppress air defenses, and disrupt its ability to retaliate effectively. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of a major missile storage facility in Kermanshah.
IS Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency, anticipating IR retaliation. The IDF mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers and prepared for multi-front operations.
IS's Iron Dome and other air defense systems intercepted many of IR's retaliatory missiles and drones, though some missiles struck Tel Aviv, causing 21 injuries, with two in serious condition.
The IDF lifted shelter orders after intercepting most of Iran's 100+ Shahed drones, with assistance from JO and SA air forces over their airspace.
IS maintains a high state of alert, with public gatherings banned in some areas, such as Jerusalem’s Old City.
IR launched over 100 ballistic missiles and drones targeting IS military bases and civilian areas, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Some missiles penetrated IS defenses, damaging buildings and causing fires. IR Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed a "fierce" response, warning that IS would be left "helpless." The IRGC appointed a new commander-in-chief to replace Hossein Salami, though the identity remains undisclosed. IR is reorganizing its military leadership to mount a counteroffensive, but the loss of key commanders and damaged infrastructure will hinder immediate large-scale retaliation.
IR imposed internet restrictions and a media blackout to control information flow and manage domestic stability.
HZ, weakened by prior IS operations in LE, has not yet launched significant solidarity strikes but retains offensive capacity, particularly with domestically produced drones. The Houthis in YE, another IR proxy, have not been reported as actively participating in this phase of the conflict, though their ties with IR and recent agreements with the U.S. to halt Red Sea attacks suggest a focus on preserving their strength.
SY's transitional government, hostile to IR since the fall of Assad in December 24, is dismantling IR-linked networks, reducing IR's ability to use SY as a conduit for weapons to HZ...
Thread 1 of 2:
The current military situation in the Middle East involving Israel (IS) and Iran (IR) is volatile & marked by a significant escalation in direct conflict between both nations.
Background: The last 48-72 hrs escalated when Israel launched a large-scale air campaign, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," targeting IR’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior leadership. This followed intel indicating IR had amassed enough enriched uranium to produce up to 15 NUCs w/in days. IR retaliated with missile and drone attacks on IS, leading to a cycle of strikes and counterstrikes.
Key players: IS, supported by U.S. intell but not direct military involvement (yet), is engaged in offensive operations against IR. IR, backed by its "Axis of Resistance" (including HZ, the Houthis, Hamas), is responding with retaliatory strikes. Other regional actors, such as SY, JO, TU and SA, play peripheral roles, with varying degrees of involvement.
Key Tactical Developments:
IS conducted over 200 airstrikes targeting IR's nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Esfahan, and possibly Fordow), ballistic missile bases (Kermanshah Province), air defense systems, and command-and-control structures. These strikes killed key IR military figures, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, top military official Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. UNCONFIRMED reports the Ayatollah is wounded.
IS employed advanced tactics, including kamikaze drones launched from within IR, which disrupted air defenses and delayed IR's immediate counterattack capabilities.
The operation aimed to degrade IR's nuclear program, suppress air defenses, and disrupt its ability to retaliate effectively. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of a major missile storage facility in Kermanshah.
IS Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency, anticipating IR retaliation. The IDF mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers and prepared for multi-front operations.
IS's Iron Dome and other air defense systems intercepted many of IR's retaliatory missiles and drones, though some missiles struck Tel Aviv, causing 21 injuries, with two in serious condition.
The IDF lifted shelter orders after intercepting most of Iran's 100+ Shahed drones, with assistance from JO and SA air forces over their airspace.
IS maintains a high state of alert, with public gatherings banned in some areas, such as Jerusalem’s Old City.
IR launched over 100 ballistic missiles and drones targeting IS military bases and civilian areas, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Some missiles penetrated IS defenses, damaging buildings and causing fires. IR Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed a "fierce" response, warning that IS would be left "helpless." The IRGC appointed a new commander-in-chief to replace Hossein Salami, though the identity remains undisclosed. IR is reorganizing its military leadership to mount a counteroffensive, but the loss of key commanders and damaged infrastructure will hinder immediate large-scale retaliation.
IR imposed internet restrictions and a media blackout to control information flow and manage domestic stability.
HZ, weakened by prior IS operations in LE, has not yet launched significant solidarity strikes but retains offensive capacity, particularly with domestically produced drones. The Houthis in YE, another IR proxy, have not been reported as actively participating in this phase of the conflict, though their ties with IR and recent agreements with the U.S. to halt Red Sea attacks suggest a focus on preserving their strength.
SY's transitional government, hostile to IR since the fall of Assad in December 24, is dismantling IR-linked networks, reducing IR's ability to use SY as a conduit for weapons to HZ...
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2 of 2:
The U.S. provided intell assistance to IS for intercepting IR missiles but did not participate in IS's strikes. U.S. air defense systems & a Navy destroyer (USS Thomas Hudner) helped IS counter IR ballistic missiles. The U.S. evacuated nonessential personnel from Iraq (IZ) & authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from the Middle East due to fears of IR retaliation against U.S. assets. Nuclear negotiations with IR, scheduled for June 15 in Oman (OM), were suspended by IR (their bad), though U.S. officials expressed hope for continued talks.
JO's air force intercepted IR drones over its airspace, indicating limited support for IS's defense.
SA has not publicly supported IS's strikes & may be reassuring IR of its neutrality to avoid becoming a target.
SY's transitional government is aligning more closely with the West and IS, engaging in deconfliction talks & curbing IR influence, which limits IR's regional maneuverability.
Strategically IS's strikes aim to neutralize IR's nuclear threat, degrade its military capabilities, and disrupt its command structure. The operation’s sophistication, including drone infiltration & precise targeting, suggests a significant shift in the balance of power. By targeting nuclear facilities & leadership, IS seeks to delay or prevent IR's nuclear weaponization, though the strikes may not fully dismantle the program due to fortified sites like Fordow. IS's multi-front mobilization indicates preparation for potential escalation with IR's proxies, particularly HZ, though the latter’s weakened state limits its immediate threat.
IR's Challenges are immense: The loss of key military leaders & damage to missile & air defense infrastructure have temporarily constrained IR's ability to mount a robust counterattack. IR's reliance on ballistic missiles as its primary retaliatory weapon is hampered by IS strikes on missile bases & air defenses. The weakening of IR's regional allies (esp., the loss of Syria) limits its ability to project power through proxies, forcing a more direct confrontation with IS.
This war risks drawing in other actors, with IR threatening U.S. bases in Bahrain & Qatar if it perceives U.S. involvement. SY's shift away from IR & toward the West could reshape regional alliances, potentially isolating IR further.
The Gaza Strip & Palestinian issues may be sidelined as the IS-IR conflict dominates regional attention, potentially exacerbating humanitarian crises.
The collapse of nuclear talks, coupled with IS's strikes, reduces the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution in the near term. IR's rejection of zero uranium enrichment demands & the expiration of the JCPOA snapback mechanism in October 2025 increase the risk of further escalation.
Current Tactical Situation
IS maintains offensive momentum with ongoing airstrikes & a high state of defensive readiness. They face the challenge of sustaining operations while preparing for potential multi-front retaliation from IR & its proxies. They clearly benefit from U.S. intell and regional support (JO & SA) but will continue to operate w/out direct U.S. military backing.
IR is still reeling from leader losses & infrastructure damage, IR is reorganizing its military to mount a phased retaliation, likely focusing on ballistic missile strikes. They face internal challenges, including media blackouts & economic strain, which will limit its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. IR's weakened proxy network restricts its ability to wage a multi-front war, forcing reliance on direct military action (trust me, IR is in big trouble).
The conflict has heightened tensions, with U.S. embassies & bases on high alert and evacuations underway. The risk of miscalculation or escalation into a broader regional war remains high, particularly if IR targets U.S. assets or HZ does something stupid.
BLUF: The situation is rapidly evolving, & I assess as entering a very critical & dangerous phase.
The U.S. provided intell assistance to IS for intercepting IR missiles but did not participate in IS's strikes. U.S. air defense systems & a Navy destroyer (USS Thomas Hudner) helped IS counter IR ballistic missiles. The U.S. evacuated nonessential personnel from Iraq (IZ) & authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from the Middle East due to fears of IR retaliation against U.S. assets. Nuclear negotiations with IR, scheduled for June 15 in Oman (OM), were suspended by IR (their bad), though U.S. officials expressed hope for continued talks.
JO's air force intercepted IR drones over its airspace, indicating limited support for IS's defense.
SA has not publicly supported IS's strikes & may be reassuring IR of its neutrality to avoid becoming a target.
SY's transitional government is aligning more closely with the West and IS, engaging in deconfliction talks & curbing IR influence, which limits IR's regional maneuverability.
Strategically IS's strikes aim to neutralize IR's nuclear threat, degrade its military capabilities, and disrupt its command structure. The operation’s sophistication, including drone infiltration & precise targeting, suggests a significant shift in the balance of power. By targeting nuclear facilities & leadership, IS seeks to delay or prevent IR's nuclear weaponization, though the strikes may not fully dismantle the program due to fortified sites like Fordow. IS's multi-front mobilization indicates preparation for potential escalation with IR's proxies, particularly HZ, though the latter’s weakened state limits its immediate threat.
IR's Challenges are immense: The loss of key military leaders & damage to missile & air defense infrastructure have temporarily constrained IR's ability to mount a robust counterattack. IR's reliance on ballistic missiles as its primary retaliatory weapon is hampered by IS strikes on missile bases & air defenses. The weakening of IR's regional allies (esp., the loss of Syria) limits its ability to project power through proxies, forcing a more direct confrontation with IS.
This war risks drawing in other actors, with IR threatening U.S. bases in Bahrain & Qatar if it perceives U.S. involvement. SY's shift away from IR & toward the West could reshape regional alliances, potentially isolating IR further.
The Gaza Strip & Palestinian issues may be sidelined as the IS-IR conflict dominates regional attention, potentially exacerbating humanitarian crises.
The collapse of nuclear talks, coupled with IS's strikes, reduces the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution in the near term. IR's rejection of zero uranium enrichment demands & the expiration of the JCPOA snapback mechanism in October 2025 increase the risk of further escalation.
Current Tactical Situation
IS maintains offensive momentum with ongoing airstrikes & a high state of defensive readiness. They face the challenge of sustaining operations while preparing for potential multi-front retaliation from IR & its proxies. They clearly benefit from U.S. intell and regional support (JO & SA) but will continue to operate w/out direct U.S. military backing.
IR is still reeling from leader losses & infrastructure damage, IR is reorganizing its military to mount a phased retaliation, likely focusing on ballistic missile strikes. They face internal challenges, including media blackouts & economic strain, which will limit its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. IR's weakened proxy network restricts its ability to wage a multi-front war, forcing reliance on direct military action (trust me, IR is in big trouble).
The conflict has heightened tensions, with U.S. embassies & bases on high alert and evacuations underway. The risk of miscalculation or escalation into a broader regional war remains high, particularly if IR targets U.S. assets or HZ does something stupid.
BLUF: The situation is rapidly evolving, & I assess as entering a very critical & dangerous phase.
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Today, as we mark the Army’s 250th birthday, we pause to honor the courage, sacrifice, and unyielding commitment of the soldiers who have served under its colors for two and a half centuries. From the fields of Lexington and Concord to the beaches of Normandy, from the jungles of Vietnam to the deserts of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Army has stood as a bulwark against tyranny and a protector of the freedoms we hold dear.
For 250 years, our soldiers have answered the call, not for glory or personal gain, but because they believed in something greater than themselves: the idea of America. That idea rooted in liberty, justice, and the God-given dignity of every individual has been defended by the blood, sweat, and tears of generations of soldiers who swore an oath to uphold it.
The Army’s story is one of ordinary men and women doing extraordinary things. It is the farmer-turned-soldier at Valley Forge, enduring bitter cold to keep the dream of independence alive. It is the Buffalo Soldier, riding into history with courage in the face of adversity. It is the paratrooper leaping into the darkness over Sainte-Mère-Église, the tanker rolling through the Fulda Gap, and the infantryman patrolling the mountains of Kandahar. Each chapter of the Army’s 250-year history is written by soldiers who prioritized duty over comfort, honor over expediency, and country over self.
As a soldier who had the privilege of serving in this great institution, I know firsthand the weight of the uniform and the strength it demands. The Army is far more than a mere fighting force; it is a sacred brotherhood and sisterhood, united by the timeless values of loyalty, duty, respect, selfless service, honor, integrity, and unwavering personal courage. These are not mere words etched into a creed; they are the code by which soldiers live and, when necessary, die. In the last 250 years, more than one million soldiers have given their lives, their names eternally honored in the heart of a thankful nation.
Today, as we celebrate this milestone, we must also look to the future. The challenges of the 21st century whether from adversaries abroad or threats to our values at home require an Army that is as adaptable as it is resolute. Our soldiers must be equipped not only with the finest tools of war but with the moral clarity to defend the principles that have sustained us for 250 years.
Continued Below…
For 250 years, our soldiers have answered the call, not for glory or personal gain, but because they believed in something greater than themselves: the idea of America. That idea rooted in liberty, justice, and the God-given dignity of every individual has been defended by the blood, sweat, and tears of generations of soldiers who swore an oath to uphold it.
The Army’s story is one of ordinary men and women doing extraordinary things. It is the farmer-turned-soldier at Valley Forge, enduring bitter cold to keep the dream of independence alive. It is the Buffalo Soldier, riding into history with courage in the face of adversity. It is the paratrooper leaping into the darkness over Sainte-Mère-Église, the tanker rolling through the Fulda Gap, and the infantryman patrolling the mountains of Kandahar. Each chapter of the Army’s 250-year history is written by soldiers who prioritized duty over comfort, honor over expediency, and country over self.
As a soldier who had the privilege of serving in this great institution, I know firsthand the weight of the uniform and the strength it demands. The Army is far more than a mere fighting force; it is a sacred brotherhood and sisterhood, united by the timeless values of loyalty, duty, respect, selfless service, honor, integrity, and unwavering personal courage. These are not mere words etched into a creed; they are the code by which soldiers live and, when necessary, die. In the last 250 years, more than one million soldiers have given their lives, their names eternally honored in the heart of a thankful nation.
Today, as we celebrate this milestone, we must also look to the future. The challenges of the 21st century whether from adversaries abroad or threats to our values at home require an Army that is as adaptable as it is resolute. Our soldiers must be equipped not only with the finest tools of war but with the moral clarity to defend the principles that have sustained us for 250 years.
Continued Below…
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To those who wear the uniform today, know this: you carry the legacy of giants. You stand on the shoulders of heroes who turned the tide at Gettysburg, held the line at the Chosin Reservoir, and brought hope to war-torn corners of the globe. Your mission is no less vital, and your courage no less inspiring.
To the American people, I say this: never take for granted the men and women who serve in your Army. They are your sons and daughters, your neighbors and friends, and they stand ready to defend you at a moment’s notice. Honor them not just with words but with actions to support their families, remember their sacrifices, and cherish the nation they protect.
As we commemorate the 250th birthday of the United States Army, let us rededicate ourselves to the ideals that have guided it since its founding.
Let us salute the soldiers of yesterday, today, and tomorrow, and let us pray for God’s continued blessing on this great nation and its Army.
To the American people, I say this: never take for granted the men and women who serve in your Army. They are your sons and daughters, your neighbors and friends, and they stand ready to defend you at a moment’s notice. Honor them not just with words but with actions to support their families, remember their sacrifices, and cherish the nation they protect.
As we commemorate the 250th birthday of the United States Army, let us rededicate ourselves to the ideals that have guided it since its founding.
Let us salute the soldiers of yesterday, today, and tomorrow, and let us pray for God’s continued blessing on this great nation and its Army.
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ATTENTION!
An overnight development:
Iranian airspace was officially closed, yet a 747 takes off from Tehran International Airport, then immediately goes dark.
Destination unknown.
So what? When a corrupt authoritarian tyrannical regime dies, among the first actions is for those leaders and their families who have gotten rich off the backs and persecution of their own people move to their alternative palaces, dachas, or homes.
This plane has a good chance of having a lot of gucci and convertible currency on board.
Assad, can you see us yet?
An overnight development:
Iranian airspace was officially closed, yet a 747 takes off from Tehran International Airport, then immediately goes dark.
Destination unknown.
So what? When a corrupt authoritarian tyrannical regime dies, among the first actions is for those leaders and their families who have gotten rich off the backs and persecution of their own people move to their alternative palaces, dachas, or homes.
This plane has a good chance of having a lot of gucci and convertible currency on board.
Assad, can you see us yet?
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ATTENTION!
Today's SITREP focuses on regional and global responses (thread 1 of 2).
The ongoing conflict between Iran & Israel involves direct military strikes, with both sides exchanging missile & drone attacks, causing significant casualties.
Regional responses include support from groups like the Houthis in Yemen, while Hezbollah & Gaza have limited involvement.
Globally, the U.S. & UK have taken military precautions, & countries like Russia & China focus on diplomacy, with calls for de-escalation from the EU & UN. The situation is complex, with ongoing diplomatic efforts & concerns about regional stability, & opinions vary on responsibility & escalation.
The war between Iran & Israel has seen intense military engagements, with both nations launching strikes against each other. This conflict has drawn varied responses from regional actors & global powers, reflecting a mix of military, diplomatic, & humanitarian concerns.
Israel has targeted Iranian military & nuclear sites, while Iran has retaliated with missile & drone attacks, leading to casualties on both sides. Regional groups like the Houthis in Yemen have supported Iran w/ missile launches, & there have been minor actions from Gaza, though Hezbollah has not actively joined the fray.
Globally, The U.S. has stated it was not involved in Israel's strikes but has warned Iran against attacking U.S. assets, with the UK deploying additional jets to the region. Russia & China have engaged in diplomatic efforts, while the EU, France, Germany, & others call for de-escalation. The UN condemned the escalation, urging restraint & holding emergency meetings.
Click on The Link Below To Continue Reading.
https://open.substack.com/pub/genflynn/p/todays-sitrep-focuses-on-regional?r=24s8km&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Today's SITREP focuses on regional and global responses (thread 1 of 2).
The ongoing conflict between Iran & Israel involves direct military strikes, with both sides exchanging missile & drone attacks, causing significant casualties.
Regional responses include support from groups like the Houthis in Yemen, while Hezbollah & Gaza have limited involvement.
Globally, the U.S. & UK have taken military precautions, & countries like Russia & China focus on diplomacy, with calls for de-escalation from the EU & UN. The situation is complex, with ongoing diplomatic efforts & concerns about regional stability, & opinions vary on responsibility & escalation.
The war between Iran & Israel has seen intense military engagements, with both nations launching strikes against each other. This conflict has drawn varied responses from regional actors & global powers, reflecting a mix of military, diplomatic, & humanitarian concerns.
Israel has targeted Iranian military & nuclear sites, while Iran has retaliated with missile & drone attacks, leading to casualties on both sides. Regional groups like the Houthis in Yemen have supported Iran w/ missile launches, & there have been minor actions from Gaza, though Hezbollah has not actively joined the fray.
Globally, The U.S. has stated it was not involved in Israel's strikes but has warned Iran against attacking U.S. assets, with the UK deploying additional jets to the region. Russia & China have engaged in diplomatic efforts, while the EU, France, Germany, & others call for de-escalation. The UN condemned the escalation, urging restraint & holding emergency meetings.
Click on The Link Below To Continue Reading.
https://open.substack.com/pub/genflynn/p/todays-sitrep-focuses-on-regional?r=24s8km&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Substack
Today's SITREP Focuses on Regional and Global Responses to the Israel-Iran Conflict
Three Point Thread
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Media is too big
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The American people do NOT want another endless war. Not in the Middle East. Not in Eastern Europe.
We've spent $500 BILLION funding failure while Congress gets rich and the country rots from the inside out.
We are experiencing a moral collapse, not just approaching one.
This nation was founded under God—it's time to act like it.
We've spent $500 BILLION funding failure while Congress gets rich and the country rots from the inside out.
We are experiencing a moral collapse, not just approaching one.
This nation was founded under God—it's time to act like it.
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ATTENTION!
President Trump's legacy of peace through strength is being put to the test like never before. In a world spiraling toward chaos, weak leadership invites war. We need bold, moral clarity and decisive action, not endless conflict. My latest piece explains why America must lead with strength again.
Peace still remains a possibility.
http://genflynn.substack.com/p/trumps-great-test-peace-through-strength
President Trump's legacy of peace through strength is being put to the test like never before. In a world spiraling toward chaos, weak leadership invites war. We need bold, moral clarity and decisive action, not endless conflict. My latest piece explains why America must lead with strength again.
Peace still remains a possibility.
http://genflynn.substack.com/p/trumps-great-test-peace-through-strength
Substack
Trump’s Great Test – Peace Through Strength or Endless Wars
A Historic Choice
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ATTENTION!
Given the IS-IR conflict, I created SITREPs for those wishing to follow my thinking. I’ll adjust and I won’t always get it right. It is my thinking nonetheless.
Today’s focus: China’s benefits & risks.
Because of this conflict, China’s benefits, are primarily strategic & indirect, rooted in its broader geopolitical & economic interests.
Below are the specific ways China gains:
1. The conflict weakens U.S. Influence in the Middle East. It diverts U.S. attention and resources from Asia, where China faces pressure over Taiwan and the South China Sea. By keeping the U.S. entangled in Middle Eastern crises, China gains breathing room to pursue its Indo-Pacific regional ambitions with less interference.
2. If there is no regime change in IR, it will strengthen ties with them. China’s close relationship with IR, cemented by a 25-year cooperation agreement beginning in 2021, is bolstered by the conflict. IR, increasingly isolated, relies on China as its primary buyer of sanctioned oil (over 90% of IR’s crude exports go to China). This secures China a discounted energy supply, critical for its economy, while giving Beijing leverage over Tehran. China also benefits by its diplomatic voice while not having to commit military forces (yet).
3. The conflict enhances China’s regional diplomatic clout. China is using the conflict to project itself as a neutral & global peacemaker, contrasting with the U.S.’s perceived bias toward IS. By condemning IS actions & calling for de-escalation, China appeals to Arab states & the Global Asian South, boosting its image as a champion of non-Western interests. Its mediation efforts, like the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in 2023, gain China credibility, potentially expanding their influence deeper into Middle Eastern diplomacy.
4. China will take advantage of economic opportunities because of the instability. Due to the regional instability China benefits by disrupting U.S.-aligned trade routes (e.g., through the Suez Canal or Bab Al-Mandab Strait), increasing reliance on China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure. However, China prefers “controlled instability”, as a full-scale war could threaten its Middle Eastern oil imports (nearly half its supply) along with many of its BRI projects.
5. China’s keen observation of all military engagements, particularly missile & drone performance, will help to refine their own defense strategies. IR weapons, often incorporating Chinese components or designs, provide real-world testing data. A prolonged conflict could also weaken IS’s technological edge, reducing its ability to counter Chinese tech investments in the region.
6. By supporting IR, China indirectly backs IR’s proxies (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis), which challenge IS & U.S. short & long term interests. This low-cost strategy allows China to pressure Western powers without direct confrontation, aligning with its non-interventionist policy. There are many who correctly suggest China supplies weapons components to IR & its proxies, further amplifying its influence.
These benefits are not without significant risks.
A broader regional war will disrupt its energy security & BRI investments, which rely on Middle Eastern stability. Additionally, China’s pro-IR stance strains relations with IS, a key technology partner, potentially limiting access to IS innovation. Beijing’s difficult balancing act—maintaining ties with both IR and IS—requires careful diplomacy to avoid alienating either side. The administration needs to pay close attention here.
Conclusion: China benefits by leveraging the conflict to undermine U.S. dominance, secure cheap oil, enhance its diplomatic stature, & gain military insights, all while maintaining a low-risk, non-interventionist stance. However, these gains depend on the conflict remaining contained, as escalation will jeopardize China’s fragile economy & other geopolitical interests & alliances.
Feedback is important.
Given the IS-IR conflict, I created SITREPs for those wishing to follow my thinking. I’ll adjust and I won’t always get it right. It is my thinking nonetheless.
Today’s focus: China’s benefits & risks.
Because of this conflict, China’s benefits, are primarily strategic & indirect, rooted in its broader geopolitical & economic interests.
Below are the specific ways China gains:
1. The conflict weakens U.S. Influence in the Middle East. It diverts U.S. attention and resources from Asia, where China faces pressure over Taiwan and the South China Sea. By keeping the U.S. entangled in Middle Eastern crises, China gains breathing room to pursue its Indo-Pacific regional ambitions with less interference.
2. If there is no regime change in IR, it will strengthen ties with them. China’s close relationship with IR, cemented by a 25-year cooperation agreement beginning in 2021, is bolstered by the conflict. IR, increasingly isolated, relies on China as its primary buyer of sanctioned oil (over 90% of IR’s crude exports go to China). This secures China a discounted energy supply, critical for its economy, while giving Beijing leverage over Tehran. China also benefits by its diplomatic voice while not having to commit military forces (yet).
3. The conflict enhances China’s regional diplomatic clout. China is using the conflict to project itself as a neutral & global peacemaker, contrasting with the U.S.’s perceived bias toward IS. By condemning IS actions & calling for de-escalation, China appeals to Arab states & the Global Asian South, boosting its image as a champion of non-Western interests. Its mediation efforts, like the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in 2023, gain China credibility, potentially expanding their influence deeper into Middle Eastern diplomacy.
4. China will take advantage of economic opportunities because of the instability. Due to the regional instability China benefits by disrupting U.S.-aligned trade routes (e.g., through the Suez Canal or Bab Al-Mandab Strait), increasing reliance on China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure. However, China prefers “controlled instability”, as a full-scale war could threaten its Middle Eastern oil imports (nearly half its supply) along with many of its BRI projects.
5. China’s keen observation of all military engagements, particularly missile & drone performance, will help to refine their own defense strategies. IR weapons, often incorporating Chinese components or designs, provide real-world testing data. A prolonged conflict could also weaken IS’s technological edge, reducing its ability to counter Chinese tech investments in the region.
6. By supporting IR, China indirectly backs IR’s proxies (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis), which challenge IS & U.S. short & long term interests. This low-cost strategy allows China to pressure Western powers without direct confrontation, aligning with its non-interventionist policy. There are many who correctly suggest China supplies weapons components to IR & its proxies, further amplifying its influence.
These benefits are not without significant risks.
A broader regional war will disrupt its energy security & BRI investments, which rely on Middle Eastern stability. Additionally, China’s pro-IR stance strains relations with IS, a key technology partner, potentially limiting access to IS innovation. Beijing’s difficult balancing act—maintaining ties with both IR and IS—requires careful diplomacy to avoid alienating either side. The administration needs to pay close attention here.
Conclusion: China benefits by leveraging the conflict to undermine U.S. dominance, secure cheap oil, enhance its diplomatic stature, & gain military insights, all while maintaining a low-risk, non-interventionist stance. However, these gains depend on the conflict remaining contained, as escalation will jeopardize China’s fragile economy & other geopolitical interests & alliances.
Feedback is important.
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ATTENTION!
Iran Ballistic Missile capacity (SITREP)—how much longer can they sustain these barrages?
It’s just past 0200 local in Tel Aviv time now.
Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles but cannot launch all simultaneously (they’ve already launched 8 waves). Current evidence leans toward a maximum of around 180-200 missiles launched at once in recent attacks. It seems very likely that infrastructure limits simultaneous launches to far below 3,000.
Iran possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at over 3,000 missiles, making it the largest in the Middle East. However, the capacity to launch all these missiles at once is constrained by logistical and strategic factors, including the number of launch platforms and the nature of their deployment.
Recent military actions show Iran launching up to 180-200 missiles in a single strike. These numbers are significantly lower than 3,000, indicating a limit to simultaneous launch capacity.
Pt. 2 Continued Below
Iran Ballistic Missile capacity (SITREP)—how much longer can they sustain these barrages?
It’s just past 0200 local in Tel Aviv time now.
Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles but cannot launch all simultaneously (they’ve already launched 8 waves). Current evidence leans toward a maximum of around 180-200 missiles launched at once in recent attacks. It seems very likely that infrastructure limits simultaneous launches to far below 3,000.
Iran possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at over 3,000 missiles, making it the largest in the Middle East. However, the capacity to launch all these missiles at once is constrained by logistical and strategic factors, including the number of launch platforms and the nature of their deployment.
Recent military actions show Iran launching up to 180-200 missiles in a single strike. These numbers are significantly lower than 3,000, indicating a limit to simultaneous launch capacity.
Pt. 2 Continued Below
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Pt. 2
Iran's infrastructure and launch capacity, including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facilities, does not support launching 3,000 missiles at once. The focus on sequential or ripple-fire systems further supports this limitation.
My assessment is Iran is getting toward the end of their ballistic missile capacity (for a variety of reasons). They likely still retain hundreds but their ability to launch very large numbers is hindered by infrastructure destruction over the past several days as well as launch capabilities.
That said, DO NOT underestimate Iran’s ability to do as much as humanly possible to attempt to destroy Israel. That has been their stated goal for years and until there is regime change to someone more aligned with Israel and the west, expect this war to continue.
Iran's ballistic missile program has been a focal point of regional and international security discussions for many years, particularly given its implications for Middle Eastern stability and global non-proliferation efforts.
Iran's ballistic missile inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). One notable development is an automated missile launch system revealed since 2020, capable of positioning up to five fully fueled ballistic missiles on an underground railcar for sequential ripple-fire through a single vertical shaft. This is what Israel is facing now. Barrages of dozens of these simultaneously and my assessment is more to come.
Strategic and Logistical Considerations
Launching 3,000 missiles simultaneously would require an unprecedented number of launch platforms and coordination, likely exceeding Iran's current capabilities. Strategically, such an action would deplete Iran's entire arsenal, leaving it vulnerable to counterattacks.
Our Israeli allies need to prepare for another round of massive amounts of missiles. Iran—you better get ready for a strategic counteroffensive. The Israelis have planned this war for a long time and my sense is that they are far more ready than you, particularly their population. The Iranian people DO NOT want to suffer any longer under their brutal tyrannical regime.
This war one will end with a clear victor.
Iran's infrastructure and launch capacity, including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facilities, does not support launching 3,000 missiles at once. The focus on sequential or ripple-fire systems further supports this limitation.
My assessment is Iran is getting toward the end of their ballistic missile capacity (for a variety of reasons). They likely still retain hundreds but their ability to launch very large numbers is hindered by infrastructure destruction over the past several days as well as launch capabilities.
That said, DO NOT underestimate Iran’s ability to do as much as humanly possible to attempt to destroy Israel. That has been their stated goal for years and until there is regime change to someone more aligned with Israel and the west, expect this war to continue.
Iran's ballistic missile program has been a focal point of regional and international security discussions for many years, particularly given its implications for Middle Eastern stability and global non-proliferation efforts.
Iran's ballistic missile inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). One notable development is an automated missile launch system revealed since 2020, capable of positioning up to five fully fueled ballistic missiles on an underground railcar for sequential ripple-fire through a single vertical shaft. This is what Israel is facing now. Barrages of dozens of these simultaneously and my assessment is more to come.
Strategic and Logistical Considerations
Launching 3,000 missiles simultaneously would require an unprecedented number of launch platforms and coordination, likely exceeding Iran's current capabilities. Strategically, such an action would deplete Iran's entire arsenal, leaving it vulnerable to counterattacks.
Our Israeli allies need to prepare for another round of massive amounts of missiles. Iran—you better get ready for a strategic counteroffensive. The Israelis have planned this war for a long time and my sense is that they are far more ready than you, particularly their population. The Iranian people DO NOT want to suffer any longer under their brutal tyrannical regime.
This war one will end with a clear victor.
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There are historic consequences at stake next 24/48 hours. Pray our nation’s leadership uses great discernment. Say some prayers 🙏🏼
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So there was foreign interference by the CCP in the 2020 presidential election.
Who was running the USIC at that time and why didn’t this get exposed back then?
Can we get four years of our lives back!?
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbi-gives-congress-intel-alleged-chinese-plot-create-fake-mail
Who was running the USIC at that time and why didn’t this get exposed back then?
Can we get four years of our lives back!?
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbi-gives-congress-intel-alleged-chinese-plot-create-fake-mail
Just The News
FBI gives Congress intel on alleged Chinese plot to create fake mail-in ballots in 2020
Newly declassified intelligence report partially corroborated but was recalled before it could be fully investigated, officials say.
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ATTENTION!
There is GREAT debate whether Iran had a nuclear bomb or how close they were to possessing one.
This SITREP addresses what it takes to build one and readers can then speculate whether Iran had one or not.
That said (and let’s face it), this war between IS & IR is as much or more about regime change as it is about destroying IR’s ability to possess a NUC.
First, the time to build a NUC bomb after highly uranium enrichment (HEU) depends on several factors, including the level of enrichment, the design of the weapon, technical expertise, and available resources (ALL OF WHICH IRAN HAD).
Here's a breakdown:
For a simple fission bomb, like what’s referred to as a "gun-type" design, HEU with at least 90% uranium-235 is typically required. If the uranium is already enriched to this level, the enrichment step is complete. My judgement is the Israelis assessed that Iran was likely at that level of enrichment and could not risk further development of a NUCLEAR BOMB.
For a sophisticated state like Iran was, with enough HEU, technical know-how, and pre-existing infrastructure, a basic gun-type bomb (think WWII Little Boy or Fat Man) can be assembled in weeks. Essentially, the design of bombs like these is simpler, requiring less sophisticated engineering. And testing can be conducted deep underground.
Some “experts” will argue Fat Man is more complex (that's true). Overcoming this requires precise engineering of components like the neutron initiator and explosive lenses (Iran likely has (or had) access to these type technical components).
What’s Next (Steps post enrichment):
1. Material Fabrication: Shaping the HEU into the required form (e.g., a core or pit), which only takes days to weeks with proper equipment.
2. Component Manufacturing: Building other parts like the tamper, reflector, and detonators. This could take weeks to months, depending on the design and available technology (Iran was reported to be working on these for years). The sophistication of their ballistic missile capability allowed this type of technical testing & development.
3. Assembly and Testing: Integrating components and ensuring functionality. For a gun-type bomb, this is straightforward (days to weeks). For an implosion design, precision testing and machining could extend the timeline significantly (months).
This above analysis assumes no major obstacles (like having your nuclear, engineering, and technical support facilities decimated by a severe Israeli bombing campaign).
Other obstacles are political, logistical, or internal security constraints. All could extend timelines significantly.
Additionally, some types of more modern nuclear weapons often involve more complex designs, and require further time for development and testing.
AND, the deranged Iranian regime could care less about rules and norms or international law (or development & testing protocols of the IAEA for instance). They were already sponsoring terrorism globally (never mind in their own region).
Pt 2. Continued Below
There is GREAT debate whether Iran had a nuclear bomb or how close they were to possessing one.
This SITREP addresses what it takes to build one and readers can then speculate whether Iran had one or not.
That said (and let’s face it), this war between IS & IR is as much or more about regime change as it is about destroying IR’s ability to possess a NUC.
First, the time to build a NUC bomb after highly uranium enrichment (HEU) depends on several factors, including the level of enrichment, the design of the weapon, technical expertise, and available resources (ALL OF WHICH IRAN HAD).
Here's a breakdown:
For a simple fission bomb, like what’s referred to as a "gun-type" design, HEU with at least 90% uranium-235 is typically required. If the uranium is already enriched to this level, the enrichment step is complete. My judgement is the Israelis assessed that Iran was likely at that level of enrichment and could not risk further development of a NUCLEAR BOMB.
For a sophisticated state like Iran was, with enough HEU, technical know-how, and pre-existing infrastructure, a basic gun-type bomb (think WWII Little Boy or Fat Man) can be assembled in weeks. Essentially, the design of bombs like these is simpler, requiring less sophisticated engineering. And testing can be conducted deep underground.
Some “experts” will argue Fat Man is more complex (that's true). Overcoming this requires precise engineering of components like the neutron initiator and explosive lenses (Iran likely has (or had) access to these type technical components).
What’s Next (Steps post enrichment):
1. Material Fabrication: Shaping the HEU into the required form (e.g., a core or pit), which only takes days to weeks with proper equipment.
2. Component Manufacturing: Building other parts like the tamper, reflector, and detonators. This could take weeks to months, depending on the design and available technology (Iran was reported to be working on these for years). The sophistication of their ballistic missile capability allowed this type of technical testing & development.
3. Assembly and Testing: Integrating components and ensuring functionality. For a gun-type bomb, this is straightforward (days to weeks). For an implosion design, precision testing and machining could extend the timeline significantly (months).
This above analysis assumes no major obstacles (like having your nuclear, engineering, and technical support facilities decimated by a severe Israeli bombing campaign).
Other obstacles are political, logistical, or internal security constraints. All could extend timelines significantly.
Additionally, some types of more modern nuclear weapons often involve more complex designs, and require further time for development and testing.
AND, the deranged Iranian regime could care less about rules and norms or international law (or development & testing protocols of the IAEA for instance). They were already sponsoring terrorism globally (never mind in their own region).
Pt 2. Continued Below
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Pt. 2
Bottom Line: Everyone that has been paying attention knows Iran has long wanted a NUC, they worked toward achieving one, they were very close, and as the leading nation for state sponsor of terrorism around the world, Iran could NEVER be allowed to possess a NUC. The regime said they wanted to annihilate Israel off the map!!
That said, the problem isn't Israel, the problem is the tyrannical Iranian regime that has a death wish for its own people, its neighbors and anyone else who doesn’t believe in its way of life. The current Iran regime represents a global problem for all humanity. I support and will pray for Israel and the people of Iran.
Take a listen to this video from early 2017. Trump has been correct in his belief about no NUCs for Iran for a long time.
Bottom Line: Everyone that has been paying attention knows Iran has long wanted a NUC, they worked toward achieving one, they were very close, and as the leading nation for state sponsor of terrorism around the world, Iran could NEVER be allowed to possess a NUC. The regime said they wanted to annihilate Israel off the map!!
That said, the problem isn't Israel, the problem is the tyrannical Iranian regime that has a death wish for its own people, its neighbors and anyone else who doesn’t believe in its way of life. The current Iran regime represents a global problem for all humanity. I support and will pray for Israel and the people of Iran.
Take a listen to this video from early 2017. Trump has been correct in his belief about no NUCs for Iran for a long time.
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If the DOJ Crim Div gets the co-conspirators of Russia-Gate, they will find the co-conspirators of 2020 Election-Gate. They are one and the same.
John Brennan your days as a free man might be coming to an end. Why don’t you and Comey get measured together for the color orange and it ain’t for your version of pride month.
John Brennan your days as a free man might be coming to an end. Why don’t you and Comey get measured together for the color orange and it ain’t for your version of pride month.
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