Often the issue comes up: Why doesn't Putin/Russia do this or that? Why does Russia seem to be fighting in a limited manner? And on the other side: why does aid from the West to Ukraine seem so piecemeal, only offering new wunderwaffen AFTER Ukrainian setbacks?

Well, we are in a cold war situation, where game theory is of paramount importance. Every action from one side will be met with an equal and opposite reaction from the other side. This is why both sides are hesitant to push boundaries of action at any given moment. Of course, we will continue to see a gradual escalation until some great crescendo. Hopefully, cooler heads prevail before we reach the point of our destruction. I'm reminded of these words from Nikita Khrushchev, sent in a letter to the Kennedy administration during the Cuban Missile Crisis:

Khrushchev:
We and you ought not pull on the ends of a rope, which you have tied the knots of war.  Because the more the two of us pull, the tighter the knot will be tied, and then it will be necessary to cut that knot.  And what that would mean is not for me to explain to you.  I have participated in two wars and know that war ends when it has rolled through cities and villages, everywhere sowing death and destruction.  For such is the logic of war.  If people do not display wisdom, they will clash like blind moles, and mutual annihilation will commence.
 
Words to keep in mind during this dark period.

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Map of hostilities and the situation on the fronts on the evening of January 13

The disputes about control over Soledar are over - the Ministry of Defense announced the transfer of the city under our control. Only the participation of units of PMC "Wagner" turned out to be outside the daily report of the department, which caused a lot of criticism from local medias and the public. But in the end, the mistake was corrected and the direct participation of the assault detachments of the “orchestrants” in the capture of the city was officially recognized. In any case, even though Soledar is ours, the main thing is not to stop!

⚔️The situation on the fronts for the past day:

⚫️ Svatovo-Kremennoye direction

Russian artillery worked on the positions of militants in the regions of Krakhmalny and Berestovoye of the Kharkov region. Also, the artillery of the Pskov paratroopers covered the units of two brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Grigorovka and Serebryanka of the DPR.

⚫️ Soledar direction

According to military correspondents, the Russian army began to liberate Razdolovka north of Soledar. Also today, assault operations continued in the area of the Sol station (the depot was taken under control), battles for Paraskovievka and Krasnaya Gora. Ours attack the enemy on both sides of Soledar - both in the direction of Artemovsk and in the direction of Seversk, expanding the bridgehead.

⚫️ Artemovskoe (Bakhmut) direction

Until now, there are battles for Kleshcheevka. In the southeastern quarters and in the industrial zone, street battles are being fought. Also, the capture of Experienced greatly influenced the onslaught of our troops. There are battles for Paraskovievka and Krasnaya Gora. At the moment, it is too early to talk about the operational environment of the city.

💥In the areas of Krasny Liman and Seversk of the DPR, two Grad MLRS and Uragan MLRS were found and destroyed.

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Despite rumors that Beijing wants to distance itself from Moscow, China's public statements on the war in Ukraine have not changed.

Chinese Ambassador to the UN Liu Jieyi said at a meeting of the General Assembly that the supply of weapons to Ukraine only exacerbates the conflict and could lead to even greater confrontation.

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Ukraine may prepare to use chemical weapons against Russian troops - Russian Embassy in the UK

The Russian Embassy in the UK commented on a video previously published by the Ukrainian military, in which they allegedly demonstrate preparations for a chemical attack on the Russian military.

“The video released by the Ukrainian military appears to show them preparing to use a chemical weapon, likely phosgene, banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention, against the Russian military,” the embassy said.

Moreover, the representatives of the diplomatic mission stated that the letters “OB”, which are applied to the gas cylinders shown in the video, mean “poisonous ammunition”.

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Judging by various reports, the successes of the PMC "Wagner" in the Bakhmut direction forced the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to adjust their plans in Zaporozhye.

If in November a rather impressive grouping of five brigades (17th brigade, 128th brigade, 28th brigade, 61st brigade, 46th brigade) was released from Kherson, which apparently planned to be supplemented with a new 77th brigade, then over time all the formations gradually moved either under Soledar, or - Bakhmut. Here is the main offensive force - the 17th tank brigade was also noted in the Soledar area in January.

Moreover, the Ukrainian command is forced to send new reserves to this area. On January 12, PMC "Wagner" boasted captured chevrons of the 4th tank brigade, which is part of the 9th Army Corps being formed.

However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have plans for an attack on Zaporizhzhia and can be implemented in the second half of February - with the arrival of equipment from the west, primarily tanks, the need to supply which has been a lot of talk lately. Since the beginning of the year, practical steps have also been taken: the Czech Republic has supplied a batch of T-72s, and Poland has transferred a Leopard tank company. It is quite possible that the 4th tank brigade also arrived in the Bakhmut direction to replace the 17th brigade, which was battered in battles, to prepare the latter for a throw to Melitopol.

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The Brazilian Prosecutor General's Office asks the court to investigate Bolsonaro's involvement in the pogroms in the capital.

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Representatives of Ukraine and Russia spoke at the meeting of the UN Security Council.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Emine Dzhaparova:

1. There are no legal grounds for the presence of a Russian representative in the place of the Soviet Union in the UN Security Council.

2. What is happening in Bakhmut and Soledar surpasses everything that we have seen.

3. It is necessary to strengthen sanctions against Russia: a complete embargo on oil and gas, the disconnection of banks from the world system.

4. Ukraine made a request to the UN to investigate the supply of drones by Iran to Russia.

Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN Vasily Nebenzya:

1. The "special operation" in Ukraine will end when its goals "are achieved by military means or negotiations."

2. On January 17, the UN Security Council will discuss the situation around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

3. Ukraine's proposal to hold a "peace summit" on February 24 is "an attempt by the Kyiv authorities to please Western countries."

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🇵🇱🇱🇹 Poland and Lithuania insist on restrictions on Russia's nuclear sector under new EU sanctions package - Reuters

🇫🇲 The NATO "hawks" from Warsaw and Vilnius are also asking for a crushing blow to "Russian propaganda" on television and to complete the disconnection of all Russian banks from the global SWIFT system.

The descendants of the Commonwealth are historical enemies of Russian statehood.

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Damage to Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure exceeds $127 billion, said First Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Emine Dzhaparova.

She added that the restoration of Ukraine "will be one of the largest investment projects." "Ukraine has become the largest construction site in Europe, which provides a wide range of opportunities for international partners to use the best practices in the field of engineering, construction and technology transfer," said Dzheppar.

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The special military operation in Ukraine will end only when its goals are achieved, whether through negotiations or military means — Russia in UNSC

Ukraine has turned into a NATO-owned private military company that is paid money, given weapons, and told where to shoot. Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated this at a meeting of the Security Council of the world organization.

According to him, "the Kiev regime, contrary to facts and common sense, has formed an illusion that with the increasing direct military assistance of NATO, it will be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield." "As a result, Ukraine has essentially turned into a NATO PMC." It is paid money, provided with weapons and intelligence, and told where to shoot and where to attack. "The Ukrainian people suffer from this because they are forced to fight for the sake of other people's tasks," the diplomat said.

The special military operation in Ukraine will end only when its goals have been achieved, whether through negotiations or military means, Vasily Nebenzya said.

"It will be possible to end the Special Military Operation only when there is no longer a threat to Russia from the territory of Ukraine and no discrimination for the Russian-speaking population of that country." If this result can be achieved through negotiations, then we are ready for such a scenario. If not, then all the objectives will be achieved by military means. "So far, neither the Kiev regime nor its Western sponsors have drawn the necessary conclusions from the Ukrainian events," the Russian permanent representative to the world organisation said at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.

The Kiev government’s draft resolution about a ‘peace plan’ is completely detached from reality, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya told reporters on Friday.

"They come up with all kinds of extravagant ideas, including the 10-point peace plan which has nothing to do with reality," he said.

The United Nations Security Council will gather on January 17 to discuss the situation around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church on Russia’s initiative, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said.

In turn, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative Dmitry Polyansky said on his Telegram channel that Russia was planning to invite a representative of the Moscow Patriarchate to speak at the meeting.

https://tass.com/politics/1562191
https://tass.com/politics/1562187
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Western countries do not plan to invest in the restoration of Ukraine, and all optimistic statements on this subject are a sham. This opinion was expressed to our agency by the former ambassador of the LPR in Moscow, Rodion Miroshnik.

"They were paid like kamikazes, and they decided that these were funds for a long and happy life. No one was going to and is not going to invest in any development of Ukraine. Now they are paying a suicide bomber who allowed his house to be destroyed and sends his citizens to death - this is a unique service, but it has nothing to do with the restoration of the country and investment in its future. Those who pay for death are unlikely to expect that the client will live. This is another profanity for "little Ukrainians," Miroshnik said.

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Slow night. Here's a cat!

One of the Russian-appointed "leaders" of the occupied part of the Zaporozhye region, Vladimir Rogov, wrote last night that he was in St. Petersburg and "the fate of the" special operation "is being decided there (Zaporozhye)."

“A few hours ago, I did not even imagine that I would be forced to celebrate the old New Year in St. Petersburg. In Northern Palmyra, the fate of our Motherland was determined many times. To some extent, it is being solved even now. At a minimum, the fate of the SMO, more precisely, according to what scenario the “special operation” will be carried out further, ”wrote Rogov.

He did not provide details.

Recall that earlier the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not rule out that the Russians could go on the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction.

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