Wartears.org's report on Ukrainian casualties 

Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)

> Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Ukrainian Tactics 
> Moscow Kiev is sending poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say. - NYT*

Let's go into detail. Three and a half months ago, we published our mathematical model, to show how we estimate the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this time (and even before: the idea of such an estimation came to us back in June, shortly after the launch of the project), we were very curious about other estimation methods. To our disappointment, there weren't any.

And finally, a few days ago, CIT posted an article, referring to another one by the New York Times, where they estimated the losses of Russian troops. Finally, we saw at least some method of calculating the casualties to put our hands on!

Yesterday, it turned out that our estimate of the number of people killed was confirmed by Mossad, and, indirectly, by a retired US colonel. We were curious as to what would happen if we were to plug our data and estimates of Ukrainian losses into the @CITeam methodology and estimate Ukrainian losses this way.

Here's what happened:

1. The number of dead - 180 thousand - we took from our estimate, which has already coincided with statements of officials and experts several times with good accuracy.

2. Next (quote from CIT) "we cautiously assume that the number of missing people can be from a third of those buried to an equal number," and so we get the number of missing people: - from 60 to 180 thousand KIA.

3. That is, the total number of dead and missing Ukrainian military personnel is from 240 to 360 thousand.

4. (CIT again) "To count the wounded, we use ratios from 1:3 to 1:4 to the dead," which gives us from 720 to 1,440 thousand wounded.

5. (And once again, CIT) "Thus, we estimate the losses of" the Ukrainian military to be between 960 and 1,800 thousand people.

Conclusion: According to the data from MOSSAD and the methodologies of CIT and the NYT, Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.

* Yes, we somewhat loosely tweaked the original title to match the data.

This is just a "half-joking" exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.

[Русская версия]
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The war may not end as the Ukrainians expect, and as a result, Ukraine may not return all its territories, and the West is ready to follow such a scenario, said Alexei Arestovich, a former adviser to the President's Office.

“What will happen to the society that raised its expectations too high, but will receive a conditional Minsk-3? This recoil of unfulfilled expectations will hit us so hard - morally and everything else - that we will simply be stunned.

The way out of this war may not be at all what it seemed to us three months ago, after the success of the Kherson operation. And not because the insidious Americans do not give weapons or delay, but because success requires 400 thousand of perfectly trained soldiers with NATO weapons to grind it all up and liberate the territories. Do we have it? No. Will it be next year? Will not be. There will not be enough training facilities... We as a society are not ready for such an outcome. I decided to say it as the expectation of the Russian side. But the most unpleasant thing is that in the West they think the same way, and we are totally dependent on them. What should the West do? The scenario of two Koreas. Create South Korea with guarantees,” Arestovich said, adding that with this option, Ukraine can get a lot of bonuses.

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👆👆👆
The only flaw of this idea is that it will not be two Koreas scenario.

🇺🇦💥Mortar lashes out at Ukrainian fighters near Makeevka

The intelligence of the group "🅾️" spotted the AFU fighters heading toward their positions. A Wasilok automatic mortar was fired at the indicated coordinates. As a result, one ended his life ignominiously in a foreign land.

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Destruction of two enemy BMPs by T-80BVM TBMs of the 155th Marine Guards Brigade 🔥 Sniper accuracy


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About 19 million books have been written off in the libraries of Ukraine, and 11 million of them are in Russian.

This was announced by the Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy Yevgenia Kravchuk, whose comment is published on the website of the Rada.

According to the deputy, in this way, public libraries followed the recommendations of the Ministry of Culture to write off certain types of books.

In particular, we are talking about books whose content is “aimed at eliminating the independence of Ukraine”, infringing on human rights and freedoms, promoting violence, committing terrorist acts, inciting interethnic, racial, and religious hatred, justifying, recognizing as lawful, denying the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, etc.

Books of sanctioned Russian publishing houses are also subject to write-off from libraries.

There is also a recommendation to write off books whose authors supported the war against Ukraine.

Among the books imitating the write-off are some Ukrainian-language books of the Soviet era.

“In general, the ratio of books in Russian and Ukrainian in our libraries is very sad. Now we are talking about the fact that it is rather necessary to update the funds and purchase books in the Ukrainian language,” Kravchuk said.

Now in the public libraries of Ukraine, about 44% of books are in Russian, and the rest are in Ukrainian or the languages of the EU countries.

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A baby was born under the rubble in Aleppo, Syria.

It is reported that the baby was rescued while the mother remained under the rubble.

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The Weight of NATO Tanks May Pose a Problem in Ukraine

The heavier weight of main battle tanks supplied to Ukraine by NATO members could pose issues for how Ukraine can use them, experts have told Newsweek

But the T-72, which is the most widely used main battle tank in the world, weighs in at about 45 tons, as does the later model T-80. An M1A1 can weigh between 67 and nearly 74 tons, according to the U.S. Army.

"This affects what bridges a vehicle can safely use, which in turn affects where it will be deployed and how easily it can maneuver on the battlefield," military and defense expert Michael Peck told Newsweek.

Soviet-era bridges were designed to bear the weight of the tanks of the time and the region, former military officer Frank Ledwidge told Newsweek.

"Many Ukrainian bridges may not be suitable" for the far heavier Western main battle tanks now destined for Ukraine's front lines, he said.

"Bridging equipment used by the Ukrainian military will also be designed with Soviet-era tanks in mind, not Abrams, Challengers or Leopards",he added.

Corresponding bridging equipment may be provided by Western allies, Ledwidge suggested, but Russian military intelligence may nonetheless benefit from Ukrainian logistical decisions that eliminate unsuitable bridges.

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Every house is a "Brest fortress": the commander of the "Wagner" PMC assault squad told about the battles in Bakhmut

During the fighting for school No. 4 in the eastern part of Bakhmut, units of "musicians" destroyed more than a hundred Ukrainian nationalists from the battalion "Kharkov." The commander of a detachment of the PMC "Wagner" with the call sign Ratibor spoke about this. 

"They just did not expect such fast, coordinated, and rapid action." It was impossible to get close to the school, but under cover of heavy fire, we forced the enemy to move away from their firing points, and at this point the assault groups approached from the flanks.

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UKRAINE IS LOSING STRENGTH:  THE REASON IS THE MISTAKE IN CHOOSING A WAR STRATEGY WITH RUSSIA.  —They Chose the Wrong War Strategy (Article by : Russian journalist Alexander Sladkov)

Ukraine has made many efforts to impose a war of attrition on us. Apparently, Kiev proceeded from the idea that the internal weakness of Russian society meant that it would not be able to withstand a protracted conflict. This was the case when the imposed view of us as a "Russian horde" played a cruel joke on its authors during the planning of combat operations. It is also interesting that, with a high degree of probability, the idea of a war of attrition is Ukrainian, not Western. At least, based on open sources, that is not what the Western colonial bosses wanted. 

But how to assess the margin of safety in Ukraine itself? How near is its own exhaustion? Since statistics are obviously secret and there is no intelligible sociology in Ukraine, we can use some visible signs. 
In Ukraine, there is another wave of mobilization, again very severe. This time, even those who were able to escape or evacuate to these countries are being drafted by European governments. Millions of Ukrainians who are working there are also being mobilized. Plus, subpoenas have begun to arrive in Ukraine itself (attention!) for boys in the middle school.This is important because the "sacred cow" of the Ukrainian Maidan -- the well-to-do average citizen -- is subject to mobilization. They are the same ones who legalized the Nazi fighters on the Maidan with their presence.

The same one who told us how well he lived in Ukraine, unlike in Donbass. The same one who has not been drafted for all these nine years, and for that he has regularly stated that he does not see Nazis. These are the same people who, at every necessary moment, were led to the cameras of Western TV to show them the understandable face of Ukraine. This is a very important class of people for modern Ukraine. So important, in fact, that even the street Nazi rioters smashed up the cheap alcohol "drinks" in the working-class neighborhoods, bypassing the elite drug houses and gay clubs on Podol... Would they (modern, educated guys) have been drafted if they had an alternative? Of course not.

This is the most important sign that Ukraine is nearing the exhaustion of an irreplaceable resource: manpower. There are many small signs that are noticeable in certain parts of the front. But this one is the most important. As soon as the middle-ranking Kiev managers begin to be captured by us, it means that the crisis in the AFU is really close. From this point on, there is still a little more pressure left.
And plus, the forced "rejection" of mobilizing the western Ukrainian national minorities, for example, the Hungarians, and the expansion of the draft lists in Kiev and in the east of Ukraine because of it are one more blow to the (modern and educated) middle class of Ukrainian society.[Hungary forced Zielensky to stop mobilizing ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia; as a result of this, the forced mobilization stopped there, but the AFU started brutal mobilizations in Kiev, Odessa, Dneipropetrovsk, etc.]

We are waiting to see what kind of prisoners will come to us. It will be soon. We have been sowing, growing, preparing, and spending effort for a long time; now it's time to reap the harvest.

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Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on Monday said the firm is preparing for the U.S. to default on its debt after surpassing its borrowing limit last month. 

Lawmakers are locked in talks about whether to lift the debt ceiling, with Republicans insisting on spending cuts before a deal to raise the limit is struck, and economists are warning of financial crisis if a default does occur. 

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3845901-bank-of-america-ceo-preparing-for-us-debt-default/amp/

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Ukrainian troops in Vuhledar shot down a group of Polish mercenaries, Jan Gagin, adviser to the acting head of the DPR, told us.

"According to our information, on the night from Sunday to Monday, Ukrainian units shot a group of foreign servicemen in Vuhledar, presumably [they were] Poles. In recent weeks, confrontations between Ukrainian and Polish units have become more frequent. This is evidenced by intelligence data, including radio intercepts" , - he said.

Gagin added that some prisoners of war who were detained near Vuhledar in the past few days also speak of serious conflicts between Polish mercenaries and Ukrainian military personnel.

Zin Note: I'm going to rate this as a rumor until we see further confirmation.

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🪖 Ukrainian servicemen damage military equipment and equipment so that the command does not transfer them to the zone of active hostilities, RIA Novosti reports.

✔️ The agency cites excerpts from documents that came into the possession of the Russian security forces, and protocols of interrogations of prisoners.

✔️ So, in the Artyomovsky direction, during the inspection of documents and the deceased serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine A.V. Kiyko found his report addressed to the commander of the brigade I.I. Vinnik, in which the deceased informs the commander that his colleague Sergeant Yu.V. Sipko deliberately damages a radio relay communication station.

📝 “I ask you to take action against Sergeant Yu.V. Sipko, who by his actions causes damage (conducts anti-Ukrainian activities) at the key points of defense of the city of Bakhmut (Artemovsk),” the stern warrior taunts.

✔️ Ukrainian captive Andrei Semyonov told about another case of damage to military equipment . “ We had light armored vehicles - Cossacks. It often happened that she failed, but no one could understand why ,” the prisoner said.

✔️ Later it turned out that a certain fighter deliberately disabled the vehicles so as not to advance to the positions himself and not to take out the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there. “ The authorities arrived and took Seryozha , who was responsible for these Kozaks, away. The boys said that it was quite possible that he was "zadvuhsili " (killed ) "- said Semenov.

Guys, you would not only spoil the equipment, but also put the faces of your commanders out of action. Well done.

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