🇺🇦🇷🇺 Chechen special forces reconnaissance on AFU positions near Kremenna.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

And this is unpleasant already: according to the Times, Ukraine is preparing to carry out a large-scale bombardment of the Crimean peninsula using long-range missiles, which it is expected to receive from the UK after Zelensky visits London this week.

According to the publication, the UK may hand over Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Curiously, if the latter were to be transferred from the UK Air Force's holdings, it would be in direct violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime. Furthermore, it would most likely mean transferring their British or French-made aircraft carriers to Ukraine

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

🇷🇺Russian soldiers of Sparta batallion are clearing the forest belts around the village of Pervomayskoye (to the north-west of Pesok)

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh
#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

❗️British general predicts Ukraine to lose Kharkov and Zaporozhye

The Ukrainian armed forces may soon lose control over such major cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, and Bakhmut (Artemovsk), British Army General Rupert Jones has said. In his opinion, these very cities may become one of the main targets for the Russian army. He noted, however, that he does not yet know where the most important battles will take place, as the sides' plans remain secret.

"We will see a lot of speculation, bluffing, and counter-bluffing in the coming weeks. It should be clear to all of us that this will not be what we expect. It is a game of chess," he added.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Special forces destroy US armored vehicles on the move

The anti-tank missile system of the 58th Independent Special Forces Battalion of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps (formerly the 3rd Detachment of the DNR) hit a moving target - an American M113 armored personnel carrier - with an anti-tank missile system.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

"A bearded photo model in a green stinky T-shirt drove a circus marionette through Europe". Dmitry Medvedev commented on Zelensky's trip to Paris. ㅤ

According to him, after the audience of the "greasy T-shirt" with the British monarch, adequate Westerners understood: "they were sold some cheap pornographic show".

The politician added: this "fantasy" has brought Europeans nothing but problems. The first is holding on to life, something people can still cope with. ㅤ

The second problem, on the other hand, is a national shame. According to the politician, when "former empires are whipped by former grand duchies, it is very humiliating." ㅤ

"This reign of exalted Young European freaks will end very miserably for the 'old European civilization'," Medvedev summed up👍

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Assault in Marinka continues, last nationalist strongholds are destroyed.

Video: @tankist4

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

We are posting another big analysis from our BMA friends. For those who want to go deeper than merely scratch the surface of what is going on.
Long read ahead.


Black Mountain Analysis

Prospects for World War 3 – Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker
A strategic picture of the events of a collapsing Ukraine and the end of NATO

Introduction
Recently, there is a lot of talk about where the escalating spiral will end. Will it conclude in World War III? Will there be a nuclear war? What are the determining factors? And what would indicate World War III is imminent? I’ll go through these questions in detail from a strategic perspective.
But, before I do, I’d like to write another short dedication to an author and analyst, that I value very much. I’m talking about Andrei Raevsky, better known under his pseudonym “The Vineyard Saker”. I’ve read his blog regularly since 2015, and before that for years occasionally. I learned in this time a lot from him with regards to strategic and comprehensive thinking. This is what he does wonderfully. Unfortunately, but understandably, he decided to stop maintaining and writing his blog. Thank you, Andrei, for everything, for recommending my blog and for all the analysis I/we have been able to read for years and even decades. All the best for you and your family, going forwards.
So, will there be a third world war? I would say yes, with absolute certainty. But there are a few questions left that need to be clarified before we start to panic. I personally, currently, see no need for panic. Yet. But about which questions do I speak? About the following:
When will WW3 break out?
Under which circumstances?
Which alliances will participate?
Where will the main battlefield be?
Ultimately: Will the big three powers directly clash on a large scale against each other?
I don’t have answers to these questions. But you can see that these are strategic questions, not operational questions, such as those we are currently considering in Ukraine. I don’t think that the operational questions, whether 100 tanks will be supplied to Ukraine, or even 200 fighter jets, will decide anything about the likelihood of World War III.
What I hope to do here is to help readers develop their strategic thinking so that they can see past the short-sighted operational questions I mentioned before.

Preconditions

We at BMA developed a strategic and operational picture that is still valid. In fact, we can say that from my last operational update, there is nothing to add. I can go even further. I see now, step by step, all the major and well-known podcast analysts jumping on my train. All are now talking instead of big arrows, of methodical grinding on several theatres, to put as much pressure as needed on the Ukrainians so they can collapse. That’s perfectly fine for me.

Further weapon shipments
Let’s start with weapon shipments. We will see later in this article, that I assume, that the war has escalated far more than both sides would have ever thought. From my personal standpoint, I assume, and it could have been observed in my former articles, that Russia planned with escalations up to the destruction of the third iteration of the “Ukrainian” army.
First iteration:
Destruction of the initial Ukrainian army. (Until April 2022)
Second iteration:
Destruction of the Ukrainian army, equipped with Western light equipment, designed to buffer off Russia, until the “third iteration” has been trained and equipped abroad. The second iteration had been defeated until the end of July 2022.
Third iteration:
Soldiers trained abroad and equipped with all the weapons, that countries with old Soviet stockpiles could have spared.
Destroyed at the day, General Gerasimov took over command of the SMO. 11th of January 2023.
Fourth iteration:

This army is currently in the making and is already partially fed into the battle to prevent the frontlines from collapsing. Which exactly is their purpose. To keep the battle (Scorched Earth) up as long as physically possible.
This army consists of two components, which should make sure, that this goal will be achieved.
Professional army:
People that are mobilised since a few months and trained abroad, will make the professional part of this army. These are mainly “ideologically confused, highly motivated” people. There is also one single word for this.
They will be trained on new western weapons and equipment. There is a high probability, that the initial plan, a few months ago, has been, to use them for another offensive, to produce another “defeat” for the Russians before the total collapse of Ukraine. But as it looks, the events have been faster.
There certainly is no room any longer for any kind of offensives. This units will most likely be used for operational mobile defence. In other words, they will be used, where it hurts the most, to slow down the collapse. See BMA’s five theatres. The big question is, will this army be used wisely on the West side of the Dnieper in a mobile way, to inflict the most possible damage to the Russians, or will it simply be fed into the Donbass meatgrinder and be buried along with the Ukrainian state?

Forced conscript army:

As far as I can remotely judge it, I have the feeling that all “ideologically confused highly motivated Ukrainians” are “depleted” or in the process of being depleted within the fourth iteration fire brigade. See above.
One of the reasons of course is, that the government’s propaganda, that the Ukrainian army had almost no losses, has fallen apart. It is now very well known within Ukraine that everyone who is drafted will either die, be seriously wounded or, in the best case, become a Russian POW.
There won’t be anything else left, because one of the goals of the Russians is the full physical annihilation of the Ukrainian army. Which will be achieved until summer 2023. Until then everyone will be dead, wounded or captured. There may be some hardcore “ideologically confused and highly motivated” people that continue fighting, but they will only act on their own, not as part of an organized military.
Having said that, we can come back to the conscripts. Since no one wants to die for a lost cause (they know now that it is over and only the dying is left to be done), Ukrainian men are now hiding or otherwise trying to evade the draft. There are now mobile “conscription” teams scouring every city to catch men under any circumstances. The goal of depleting every able-bodied male Ukrainian is still active.
Well, these unmotivated people, to put it mildly, will be thrown into trenches to buy time. They have no other prospects than to either be killed or, if they are lucky, captured by the Russians.
This is the fourth iteration of the Ukrainian army. The last stand, so to say. One component should buy time by trading blood, the other component should inflict damage on Russia.
This is the last iteration. There are no more human resources left, after this “Volkssturm” mobilisation, to carry on the fight. As I pointed out several times, Ukraine will experience this collapse by summer 2023.
What does it have to do with further weapon deliveries?
Well, the war can only be continued if these last Ukrainians have armoured vehicles. The “confused” Ukrainians are still believing in a victory with Western equipment. They wouldn’t continue the fight or charge Russian positions on their bare feet, without armoured assistance.
The following circumstances apply:
The whole Soviet stock of NATO and Ukraine is depleted.
The biggest part of the Ukrainian manpower is depleted.
So, a new “Frankenstein” army is being built with all kinds of NATO stuff, to keep the Ukrainians motivated to die for the West. Frankenstein, because it is an incompatible mix of everything, that has no battle value without combined arms ability.

Considering the current state of the Ukrainian army, nothing can help. In fact, it doesn’t matter anymore what the West is delivering. It has zero impact on the outcome of the war. It is only a motivator and enabler for the Ukrainians to keep up the fight, until the last “mobilizable” men are killed or captured. It will fully achieve its goal.
Moreover, it will mean far more dead Russians, since the prolongation of the war means far more dead Russians. Which is NOT good.

Red lines

What about red lines? There are red lines indeed. But I don’t think that Russia is measuring them by the amount and quality of tanks or planes, that are being sent by the West.
I’m personally convinced that the red lines were agreed by Sergei Naryshkin and William Burns in Ankara on November 14, 2022. And these red lines, from my point of view, concern the control and security of territory after the war.
In fact, I assume that all kinds of weapon deliveries would be “tolerated”, but not with pleasure, by the Russians, as long as there is no risk of lost territory. And Ukraine as a whole, except for places that could be negotiated away to other countries, is being considered as Russian territory.
Why is it accepted? The Ukrainian army is mostly defeated. Russia is fighting against the fourth and last iteration. The best people are already dead or have fled. And there is another major reason. I will cover it in the chapter “Wounded animal”.
The last point, I want to cover in this chapter is Germany. Germany of course is being forced to send its tanks to Ukraine. It will have no military consequences, but the calculation is, that Russia would escalate and break up relations with Germany for all times, because of history. The United States desperately wants to destroy the relations between Germany and Russia forever. So, Germany would depend on America and wouldn’t benefit from the new BRICS/SCO-oriented multipolar world order.
Here are some personal thoughts and assumptions:
Germany wants Ukraine to collapse ASAP, so they come out of the hellish situation, on which they are forced in, by America.
Russia knows this and keeps backchannel doors open to Germany to manage the transition away from the American grip. I assume the tank deliveries won’t change much if there are no further escalations. However, if NATO troops are part of the escalations, we are in WW3.

The West

The West is currently in sharp decline. Economically, militarily and politically.
Nevertheless, we mustn’t forget, that the West has been the dominant power for decades. So, of course, it accumulated a lot of wealth and a large military. And now we come to the problem. Russia, more or less, openly worked on implementing the new multipolar world order around BRICS and the SCO. The Americans were aware of this. At the same time, the American empire, carrying on the work of other empires before it, has been working for the destruction of Russia. Therefore, the strategy to turn all former allies and Soviet States around Russia against them and then trigger the internal collapse in Russia.
Well, both Russia and America activated their corresponding plans in 2022. Everyone wants something, but only one side will prevail. Who wins in Ukraine will achieve its geopolitical goals. At least, that’s what the parties believe. As of now, it should be clear to the politicians and secret services of all Western states, that it is over. Ukraine will soon fall, and with it, the single-polar American-centric world order.
Russia won’t be destroyed.

Goals

What now? Well, the Americans know very well about their fate since their plan in Ukraine failed. Which doesn’t need to be the end of the USA. They can become normal and powerful members of the future multipolar world order. Sitting at the table with the other great powers. I think, there are two possible outcomes.