A pile of medical waste along with the clothes of the wounded and dead Ukrainian soldiers near one of the hospitals in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk).

#source

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Russia has sufficient military and economic potential for a long-term standoff with the United States and can take decisive action to successfully end the Ukrainian conflict in 2023. This opinion is given in an article published by the Chinese newspaper Global Times.

#source

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Tankers of the 150th motorized rifle division destroy enemy firing points in Maryinka. The work is carried out in the interests of the infantry - so that the fighters can move through the settlement and knock out the enemy from the Maryinsky fortified area without fear of enemy fire from the windows of the upper floors and pillboxes.

#source

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

❗️ All units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Serbia are on full alert and now report directly to the General Staff.

The Serbian Armed Forces are also on alert.

It is also reported that heavy weapons, including multiple rocket launchers, are stationed on the administrative border with Kosovo.

The situation is currently developing according to the most negative scenario since 1999.

#source

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

⚡️In the direction of Kremennaya, our troops repelled an attempt to break through by Ukrainian militants. The assault groups also included foreign mercenaries. Some of the attackers were killed and wounded.

It is reported by Rodion Miroshnik.

#source

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

❗️❗️❗️NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Finland and Sweden will join the Alliance in 2023, despite Turkey's disagreement.

#source

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

🇺🇸🇺🇦An article in the Wall Street Journal written by an author from Ukraine (a certain Oksana Gritsenko) about how many Ukrainians are turning away from the canonical UOC (this is what “from Russia” is meant) and moving into the one created under a sensitive cap with the help of Poroshenko and the Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew (some associate him with Turkey, but he is a participant in the coup against Erdogan, for he is still tsrushny, like almost all the Patriarchs of Constantinople of the XX-XXI centuries) OCU. There is no mention of forceful unlimited seizures of temples, because this interferes with the correct narrative and zrada. The artificial religious cold war in Ukraine and the Balkans, as in almost all world Orthodoxy, is one of the elements of the US struggle with Russia

https://t.me/voenacher/36639

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Dear readers of SLG, if you think you have good writing and analytical skills, we will gladly post your texts on the main page. Post the text in the chat, and contact the admin. As we said, your opinion matters.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh


@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Call sign 'Master.' Combat in Marinka. RPG vs. tank

Daniil "Master" - grenade launcher of the 1st Brigade - about the progress in the area of Marinka, which the enemy turned into a mighty fortification with advanced engineering structures, and minefields.
It took more than one day to storm it. They captured enemy positions on the fourth day under the order of the commander.
Our five broke through to Marinka with the help of smokes. We extinguished firing points and went into the first houses. Our artillery was working non-stop. Thanks to it, there was no counterattack from Ukraine. We spent the night in the homes and went to clear them.
On the second day, we advanced two blocks. Every day our advance was successful.
Flying their drones was problematic for us, as was the work of their artillery. Constantly 120mm mortars were working on us; only the cellars saved us. It did not work without losses.
We were advancing to the gully, the main point, for about a month. Then we were replaced.
Everything was under our control, including the Shchurovsky heap. 
When we seized the 5th junction, our people informed us that the hum of machinery was audible. I prepared myself and moved towards the house, closer to the road where the humming could be heard. Three seconds later, a tank jumped out from behind a bump right in front of the house. The guys started hiding; I grabbed my RPG. It was terrifying, but I waited for it to pull up. It got too close - 7 meters. I fired. The turret of the tank jammed. The tank commander ran away. The tank backed up.
It was fun, of course. I didn't understand anything because I was concussed. There was a big hole in the wall behind me from the RPG exhaust. The guys took up positions and said, "That was awesome!".
We moved on.
The machine gunners were working on us. My favorite pipe - RPG gave them no peace.

#source
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

The US will raise the stakes to the limit

Military expert Boris Rozhin on maneuvers in Belarus, the possibility of an attack by the AFU on Belgorod, and the threat of strikes on Moscow - especially for Voenkor Kotenok Z channel @voenkorKotenok:

The Belarusian factor

- A lot of information about the redeployment of forces to Belorussia. In case of a new attempt by a Russian Armed Forces grouping from the north, will the AFU have enough resources to repel this attack and hold the front in Donbass simultaneously?

- It depends on what grouping could potentially be concentrated in Belarus and what tasks it would have. Since it is almost impossible to hide the accumulation of a large group, the AFU will probably reinforce the northern border (it is already doing so), fearing a potential strike.

However, the Russian Armed Forces may not plan such strikes. Still, they may successfully speculate on this topic to mislead the enemy's command and make maneuvering with reserves more difficult. The maximum fog of war in this matter is very profitable for the Russian General Staff.

The choice between propaganda and strategy

- The "experts" affiliated with Zelensky's Office continue to tell the Ukrainian population about the impending attack by the AFU, which will allegedly begin after the ground freezes. Among other things, the possibility of an offensive in Belgorod oblast is being discussed. Is Kiev ready to risk the accumulated reserves for the sake of the propaganda effect of capturing the border strip?

- The availability of sufficiently substantial forces enables the AFU either to conduct a propaganda offensive on the territory of the Belgorod region or to intensify attacks on Svatovo and Kreminna, for which the enemy continues to attack in the direction of the Svatovo-Kreminna highway without regard to casualties.

The main task of these attacks is to reach the highway (for example, near Krasnopopovka) and disrupt the integrity of the front of the RF Armed Forces in this area to create the preconditions for an assault on Kremenna and Svatovo. Achieving success in this area has more military and propaganda prospects for the enemy. Hence the expenditure of resources.

"Red lines" no longer work

- Ukraine is threatening to hit Moscow and other Russian megacities. What risks does Kiev face if it makes such a decision, and what options does it have to implement it?

- Well, if there is no question of the use of TNW weapons in Ukraine, then, in fact, Kiev does not risk anything, as the Russian Federation already uses almost all the available nomenclature of weapons against Ukraine. And as the US shows, the course for further escalation is inevitable because the US does not consider Russian red lines beyond the parameters of nuclear doctrine significant.

In conventional warfare, the US will raise the stakes to the limit - any costs to Ukraine or Europe are immaterial.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

The dead cities are waiting for their first winter, and many older adults are left in them. It is a matter of honor for us all to help them stay warm while reconstruction takes place. Yes, these cities will again be decorated with parks and smiling houses, but the human memory will always remain in history only of the first winter. About the most bitter winter for them, when they had nothing to welcome its frosts. Let the slogans from posters about the Greatness of our homeland turn into deeds for all the unfortunate people of our dead cities.
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

‼️🇷🇺 Ex-SBU chief Oleksandr Yakymenko appointed as head of state security service - FSB directorate in Kherson Region - Kiev media

This is reported by various media outlets and the Kherson-based publication Most, citing data from the Russian Unified State Register of Legal Entities.
Yakymenko headed the SBU before Maidan in 2013-14, and after Maidan, he went to live in Russia in 2014.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️A Russian army killed Nazi ex-journalist and filmmaker from Kherson Anton Kolomiets in the battle for Artemovsk

The death of the 34-year-old AFU fighter was reported by the National Television and Radio Broadcasting Council of Ukraine.
"Anton Kolomiets was trained as a television director at Kherson State University. He worked at the Skifiya TV channel, which later became the Kherson branch of Suspilnoye. For six years, he was on a TV channel broadcasting weather forecasts every morning, giving Kherson citizens a good mood. He was also director of live broadcasts," reads the statement.
"Anton was always with Ukraine in his heart, proudly wore vyshyvankas, sang Ukrainian songs, appreciated everything ours," his colleague Elena Yudina wrote.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Another troop convoy of the Russian Armed Forces on its way to help the LNR brothers🔥


Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Set objectives by the Russian leadership
On February 21, 2022, Putin addressed the nation with a set off decisions. I highly recommend to re-listen it or read the transcript here. Since it is not the goal to analyse his speech I will break it, and the decisions that are announced the following several days into three main objectives:
Denazification:
The Soviet Union sacrificed over 26 million people in the second world war, to defeat Nazism. Every family in Russia has some family members, that died in the second world war. It is a big wound in the Russian soul. And the best attack vector against Russia. Unfortunately, Ukraine has huge Nazi collaborator cells during the world war. Led by Stepan Bandera. Western Services knew about the Russian wound and cultivated, especially in Western Ukraine, even during Soviet times, followers of Bandera. This trend exploded exponentially since the Western services took control of Ukraine during the events in 2014. Basically, an Anti-Russia was created, armed to the teeth, right on Russia’s borders. Not only this, but not far from Moscow away. Especially difficult is, that there is a huge Russian speaking part of the population in Ukraine, which is getting discriminated, if not worse, by the Bandera followers. Russia’s goal is, to roll back this development and to remove the whole Nazi and Bandera ideology from Ukraine. This time thoroughly since it wasn’t done properly after WW2. How? I’m not an expert in such questions, so I honestly don’t know what the approach will be. It remains to be seen.
Demilitarization:
Ukraine, if remains as a national state, which I doubt in the meanwhile, would be allowed, to have only a small self-defence force. Which implies, that its whole military needs to be destroyed, or handed over to Russia, before. Moreover, it means, that no foreign military, that is hostile to Russia, would be allowed to station its military or equipment on Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine could have surrendered. In this case it would have handed over its military equipment to Russia. It could have kept, what Russia would define as necessary, for basic self-defence.
Without surrender/negotiation, demilitarization is being implemented by force. Which means, that all military equipment and troops on Ukrainian soil, that are not Russian or with Russia allied, will be destroyed. This includes both, Ukrainian and NATO equipment and troops.
Since the West is committed, to defeat Russia on the Battlefield, through Ukrainian proxies, we can assume the following: “Russia will demilitarize Ukraine AND the West, as long the West is committed, to send its equipment and as long as there are Ukrainians alive, that can use this equipment. This would lead to the total demilitarization of both, the West and Ukraine, unless the West doesn’t surrender (Ukraine) or Russia is being defeated on the Battlefield.
Bringing to justice all Ukrainians, that committed crimes against the Russian speaking population:
Over eight years, Ukraine committed all kinds of crimes against its Russian speaking population. There were three main crime places.
The Ukrainian held Donbass in general: The Russian speaking population suffered different atrocities, which I won’t explain here.
In Mariupol, which is part of Donbass, in particular: The most fanatic Nazi formation, called Azov Regiment, had its headquarters in Mariupol. There are endless reports of atrocities.
Odessa: A city, founded by the Russian czarina, Catherine the Great. It is considered by most Russians, and as far as I am informed, by the inhabitants as well, as a Russian city. Nazi formations conducted a massacre here, 2014, against Russian speaking inhabitants. Putin mentioned this massacre, and its perpetrators especially in his speech. He said, all perpetrators are known and will be brought to justice.

Putin didn’t aim with these goals on Donbass, but on the whole of Ukraine. Which brings us by logical deduction to the conclusion, that the whole of Ukraine will need to be captured, to be able to fulfill the stated goals. There is no other logical way.
Strategic planning: Basics
First of all, there is no red line, that is followed by a professional military, no matter what.
Hence, there is no “Russia planned X and didn’t achieve it”.
The only thing, that is constant in military planning, is the political goal, given by the political leadership of the country. Those objectives are the three, mentioned above. The way, to achieve those goals, can change, depending on the development of circumstances on the field. Ultimately, the political objectives can change as well, if the military might is too less or too big or the political circumstances change.
If the military might is too weak, then the objectives might be adjusted to more reachable smaller ones. If the political leadership agrees. There are unfortunately examples, where such adjustments did not take place in human history. If the military might is strong enough, and the political leadership agrees, then the goals could be expanded.
For the time being, and as all the time reiterated by Russia’s leadership, all goals will be achieved and there is no change.
The military is planning a strategy how to achieve the political goals. Most crucial in military planning is, that you have options for all deviations from the original plan. As many people know, the best plan is only valid, until the first bullet starts to fly.
Every military campaign is being planned, with many options, if things do not follow the initial planned way. And every campaign can consist of X military operations.
If a country plans thoroughly its military strategy and the derived campaigns and operations, and if it takes into consideration the realistic worst-case scenarios, then it will have as a result all resources and time, that will be needed, to sustain the project. In turn it means, that it is highly likely that Russia had several scenarios of outcomes. Best case, middle case and worst case. To start this war, Russia would need to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. I personally assume, that this is the reason, that Russia waited for eight years, to conduct this Special-Military-Operation (SMO). To prepare its economy and military, to be able to sustain the worst (realistic) military scenario.
Strategic planning: Option A, B and C
I will present three scenarios/options, that I assume, Russia has planned for, for phase 1.
Again, those are assumptions and of course they can be wrong:
Best case scenario(A):
Conducting a massive penetration on a broad frontline to cause a shock and quick collapse of the enemy. In this case Ukraine would have fully surrendered within days or weeks after the invasion. Having analysed the facts, which are available, I assume, that it was one of the realistic Russian goals, which were not achieved, eventually. The result would have been the handing over off Ukraine to the Russian military.
Middle case scenario(B):
Fighting with Ukraine, by gradually increasing the intensity, and thereby the Ukrainian military and infrastructural casualties, until Ukraine is ready to negotiate a favorable post war agreement.
This was almost achieved at the end of phase 1. Unfortunately, the West intervened and held back Ukraine from concluding a negotiated agreement.
In theory such a scenario could still be concluded if Ukraine would be a sole actor. Since Ukrainians do not control their own country, but foreign powers, the timeframe for scenario B obviously is closed.
Worst case scenario(C):
This scenario foresees, that Ukraine will not surrender under any circumstances, as long it is physically able to resist. This means that it would fight until the last soldier is killed and the last piece of equipment destroyed, so that the Russian army can drive through, to the Polish border.

Moreover, it implies, that NATO will assist and supply Ukraine, with most resources, except those, that are “redlined”, to prevent Ukraine, to collapse too fast. As far as I understand, this is the scenario, that is currently being implemented. Of course, all people involved, are hoping, that the collapse takes place, before too much damage was made.
I just presented three, at least in my opinion or assumption, possible scenarios.
Scenario A and B would have been possible, to achieve within Phase 1. Both scenarios became impossible after Phase 1 was concluded. Now, unfortunately, only scenario C is left. I will go deeper into it, in the articles, covering Phase 2 and 3.
Deception and cover up
As mentioned above, Russia needed to plan for three scenarios. Considering scenario B and C, we can conclude, that Russia would need massive amounts of mobilized and trained troops, properly equipped hardware and all the intelligence capacity in place, for target acquisition and many more purposes.
We can recall the beginning of phase 1. Very few details, troops and equipment were in place and all troops, except of some staff and general ranked officers, did not have any plan whether it is serious or only a bluff. In turn it means, the troops were not prepared and informed properly for the invasion. We can also recall that 12 hours before the invasion, Russia did alert and started to mobilise its intelligence services. Of course, there are some top-secret parts of the intelligence community, which helped to plan everything. But most parts were not involved and started being mobilised for war intelligence duty, 12 hours in advance.
One could argue that I just described bad preparation by the Russian side. This is not the case. My opinion is that the Russian General Staff and the departments of the Russian Intelligence Services that were involved in planning, created a multi-level mixed military-political campaign. Taking into consideration the three (or how many ever they are) scenarios mentioned above, what escalation steps will be activated, if Ukraine don’t surrender after this or that event on the battlefield.
The first step was made in total secrecy, to confuse Western intelligence services about the scale and objectives of the first push into Ukraine. If we take into consideration the public communication of the United States, days before the invasion, we can understand the deception, that was in effect. The Americans were sure, that Russia would invade Ukraine doctrinal and conquer it within days. Russia could have done that. The Americans know that. That’s why there were created maximal confusion.
Only after scenario A failed, Russia activated the next, pre-planned steps, that led to phase 2, which I will discuss in the next article.
What I simply want to highlight is, that all escalation steps by the Russians are pre-planned and the resources allocated. The are only released, if needed. Which means, unless Ukraine doesn’t surrender, more and more Russian resources will be released, that are already before the invasion earmarked, for exactly this escalation step.
The last thing to say, is, that as described initially, the Russian troops didn’t have information about the war and their objectives, to keep everyone in total secrecy. At the second the war started, everything was set in motion, to withdraw and trained earmarked troops for purposes, that are assigned to them in later escalation steps. Unfortunately, the Donbass militia took the biggest part of the fighting and casualties, especially in Donbass. The reason is, to keep Ukrainian troops at bay, grind them down and buy time, until the main Russian troops are prepared and trained for their earmarked purpose.
Preconditions
Depending on the source, that you take, Ukraine did have approx. 300,000 – 500,000 troops at the beginning of the conflict. And the number of troops in Donbass were, also depending on the source, between 100,000 – and 200,000 troops. This were the most experienced and elite troops, assembled for an attack at the militia held territories in Donbass.