Every third American thinks that the US is helping Ukraine too much, according to a Quinnipiac poll.

According to the Quinnipiac University Poll Institute, the number of US citizens who consider aid to Ukraine unnecessary has increased from 7% to 33% since February 2022. Every third American now believes that his country provides Ukraine with a lot of help.

Now, there are only 21% of people who think that the US should supply more military aid to Ukraine; earlier, it was 45%. That is, the number of citizens supporting an increase in the volume of deliveries is noticeably decreasing.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Western media reported that Russian sailors in Norway were fined 5,000 kroner for wearing clothes with the Russian national flag on them. According to the local prosecutor, the Norwegians and Ukrainian refugees may feel threatened and could be frightened by the Russian flag.

The enemies of Russia are really terrified of Russia's name, Russian symbols, and the sound of Russian footsteps. 

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

A recent episode,in the direction of Svatovo - Kremennaya. The Ukrainians sent reserves to the front in a whole convoy. Russian reconnaissance spotted them at the entrance, and artillery greeted the Ukrainian soldiers

@murad_gazdiev
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that in the Zaporozhye direction, as a result of offensive actions, units of the Eastern Military District occupied more advantageous lines and positions.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh
#Source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Scouts of the 3rd Guards Separate Special Forces Battalion destroy enemy DRG with the help of ATGMs

While conducting surveillance at night, scouts of the 3rd Guards Separate Special Purpose Battalion detected the advance of an enemy subversive and observation group. An accurate launch of an anti-tank-guided missile system destroyed the enemy group.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#Source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

❗️Volunteers of the assault detachments liberated Dvurevye in the DPR — RF Ministry of Defense

The Ministry of Defense reported that the volunteers were accompanied by fire support from operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops, and artillery of the Southern Military District. The militants' losses amounted to up to 50 nationalists killed and wounded, two armored combat vehicles, three pickup trucks, and two D-20 and D-30 howitzers.


Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#Source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ New briefing of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. The main thing:

📍Russian troops destroyed a warehouse of artillery ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region.
📍Russian air defense systems shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter in the Kharkiv region.
📍The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 35 people killed in the Kupyansk direction in a day.
📍Russian troops destroyed over 20 military Armed Forces of Ukraine, one infantry fighting vehicle, and an American radar station in the Krasno-Limansky direction.
📍The Russian military hit the command post of the 36th separate infantry defense battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the DPR.
📍The Russian Armed Forces in the DPR destroyed the AFU artillery ammunition depot, and an American radar station was destroyed in the Malinovka area.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#Source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

🔴 Viktor Medvedchuk spoke about the anatomy of the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine

❗️ Izvestia has published an article by Viktor Medvedchuk, chairman of the political council of the HLE banned in Ukraine. The report is quite large, I will give only its abstracts, and I will provide the link at the end of the post.

▪️ There is a peace party in Ukraine, but neither in Europe nor the USA are they favored.

▪️ Most American and European politicians do not want any peace in Ukraine.

▪️ The Ukrainian Peace Party did not fit into Western democracy, but this does not mean that the Ukrainians themselves want war.

▪️To save their country, Ukrainians need to start building their democracy and open their civil dialogue without Western curators.

▪️ The world needs to hear people who want peace, no matter how the West demands a monopoly on the truth.

▪️ The Ukrainian situation is catastrophically complicated, but it has nothing to do with what Zelensky says daily.

https://iz.ru/1454275/viktor-medvedchuk/ukrainskii-sindrom-anatomiia-sovremennogo-voennogo-protivostoianiia

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Almost all major damage to ZNPP repaired — official

Almost all serious damage, inflicted on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant by Ukrainian shelling, has been repaired, Rosenergoatom CEO advisor Renat Karchaa told TASS.

"Quite a lot of damage has accumulated, some major, some minor. All major ‘stories,’ almost all of them, have been closed, but small things remain, of course, and it would take quite a long time to fix this damage," he said.

Karchaa underscored that fully-fledged repairs were impossible for a while due to intense artillery shelling of the station.
"Should the situation remain calm, and if we work intensively, then it will take two to three months, half a year at most, to restore the station completely," he said.

According to Karchaa, the reactors that are currently in cold shutdown can be launched within two weeks.

"There is only one reason why this does not happen - the inadequacy of the Kiev regime, because we do not want to launch them and get another artillery hysteria, […] we are responsible for nuclear security," he explained.

https://tass.com/defense/1565309
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Croatian president calls on EU not to hush harassment of Hungarian in Ukraine

It was reported in recent days that Hungarian flag and signs in the Hungarian language have been removed from public buildings in Zakarpattia’s Mukachevo, populated by ethnic Hungarians

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has called on the European Union to take measures to stop violations of the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region.
"I don’t understand why the European Union keeps silent on this matter," he said on Friday after a meeting with his Hungarian counterpart, Katalin Novak when asked by journalists about harassment of Hungarians in the Zakarpattia region.

It was reported in recent days that Hungarian flag and signs in the Hungarian language have been removed from public buildings in Zakarpattia’s Mukachevo, populated by ethnic Hungarians. Apart from that, the labor contract has been terminated with the director of the city’s Hungarian school.

Commenting on this situation, the Hungarian president recalled that some 150,000 ethnic Hungarians are living in Ukraine’s Zakarppattia region and their rights are infringed upon by the local authorities. 

https://tass.com/world/1565293
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro earlier this month warned that the U.S. may find it "challenging" to continue to arm itself and supply weapons to Ukraine if weapon production doesn't increase — Newsweek

His comments came after European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in September that "the military stocks of most [EU] member states has been, I wouldn't say exhausted, but depleted in a high proportion, because we have been providing a lot of capacity to the Ukrainians.".

Such statements have led some to speculate whether the United States—as well as other Ukraine allies—will reach a point when it can no longer send more weapons to Ukraine because it needs to maintain a stockpile for its own defense

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Long read ahead. Special thanks to our friends from BM analysis

Introduction
Welcome to my analysis of the third Phase of the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine. Phase 3? Yes, Phase 3. About the Phases we have only a few references from Russian officials. Especially, when Phase 2 officially started, we had some remarks from Russian officials about that. And that’s it. That’s why I decided, to make an own classification of Phases of this war. I presented them already in some articles.
According to the Black Mountain classification, we are still in Phase 3. Which means, that this analysis will contain events that already happened, and inevitably it will contain some predictions of how events could unfold, going forward. Phase 3 roughly began in August 2022 and is still ongoing.
Since many important events took place and are going to take place, I will need to keep my chapters short.
Even thought, I pointed out the reference to my Phase classifications, I will summarize, what the definition of Phase 3 is, below:
Phase 3 was activated, since NATO escalated the supply, command and control of the Ukrainian forces. This prevented them to collapse in Phase 2. The purpose of Phase 3 is to kill the Ukrainian material and human potential in militarily favorable regions, for the Russians, and to overstretch both, the Ukrainian and the NATO logistics in Ukraine as much as it is possible, to trigger a total Ukrainian collapse and hence, its total defeat. Thereby using strikes on both, its logistics and energy infrastructure, to accelerate the result.

Objectives
I will reiterate, as I did several times already, Clausewitz here. “War is merely the continuation of policy by other means”. One wins a war, by achieving the objectives, set by the political leadership. And here I will, as I did in the last two analysis, again point out the objectives. This is important to reiterate as many times as possible. Why? Because most commentators always forget what the objectives are and trying to analyse or criticize the war, based on the assumption, that the war is only fought, for the sole purpose of fighting a war. This is utterly wrong.
These are the objectives, set by the Russian leadership:
Denazification of Ukraine.
Demilitarization of Ukraine.
Bring to justice those Ukrainians, that have committed (war)crimes against its own population from 2014 onwards.
Free the Donbass to ensure its independence and security.
These are the sole objectives of the Special Military Operation (SMO).
I will explain in detail how the implementation will most likely be achieved.

Personnel situation in the Russian army
Phase 3 began in August 2022. August was a difficult month for the Russian army.
Many Russian soldiers signed up for a certain period. For example, for half a year. Due to the necessity of secrecy, most soldiers didn’t know for certain, that there will be war and that THEY will participate in this war. That’s why all contracts were issued with normal services periods. This led eventually to the situation, that a not insignificant part of the Russian professional invasion army experienced experiencing contracts at the end July 2022.
I don’t have exact numbers so I won’t throw around with made up numbers. Which I know, is, that far more soldiers left the army, due to expiring contracts, than new troops could be brought in. In fact, it means, that from August 2022 onwards, the size of the Russian forces in Ukraine decreased significantly.
Though, the line of contact still had the same length. Which means, less troops per mile (density) then before. Since in reality we don’t have every X miles Y soldiers, this is just an average. In reality less regions/villages were manned with Russian troops. Yes, Russia used the Donbass militia extensively, but they were not enough to fight off the whole rest of Ukraine and NATO mercenaries. Which, by the way, they shouldn’t do at all.
Summarized we can conclude that the personnel situation for the Russians deteriorated sharply in August 2022.

Training and equipment from abroad for Ukraine
Ukraine, at the other hand, started to mobilize as many able-bodied citizens as possible from the beginning of the war. First, they were used, to plug the holes and to establish a defence along the whole line of contact and to build up reserves. Then, newly recruited soldiers were used to plug the holes on the frontline. In Phase 2, the grinding consumed tens of thousands of troops at the frontlines in dead and wounded.
But during Phase 2, Ukraine reached a point, where they stabilized the situation. The ratio of casualties on the frontlines and the recruiting of new troops became stable and the best mobilized people could be separated to be sent abroad for training. The situation occurred, that Ukraine mobilized people at the one hand, to be immediately, and almost without training, into the trenches to plug holes, and on the other hand, to be sent abroad for training.
Why send them abroad? Why train them at all and not use them right away on the frontlines, to turn the war? NATO correctly understood that Russia has superiority in almost everything. Only not in the numbers of troops, committed to Ukraine. That’s why plans were designed to train and equip huge numbers of troops abroad, where they can’t be targeted during or right after the training. They would be trained according to NATO standards to be used in particular and predesigned operations, to fully exploit Russia’s biggest weakness. The number of its soldiers in Ukraine.
Several tens of thousands, some sources say up to one hundred thousand, troops were trained in the EU states. Equipped with NATO equipment, their task would be to attack strategic Russian positions with human wave techniques and stress their logistics and their concentration of forces at several sections that much, that Russian forces simply would collapse. As described in the analysis of Phase 2, the only Ukrainian chance is, to exploit the fact, that Russia is conducting a SMO and not a fully war. Thereby has only a limited number of troops committed. If this troops would be outmanoeuvred, they would do one of the following things:
Retreat from a certain section to avoid being overrun and defeated.
Being cut off from supplies and eventually either captured as POW’s or killed for propaganda issues.
One of both events we already experienced several times. The other not.

Ukraine’s approach
Russia was fully aware of the fact, that it needs to handle a war, with limited human resources and that NATO is trying to exploit this fact, with a pool of human resources, that can be exploited short of collapsing vital functions of the state. This point has already been reached, as I write this text.
Therefore, the Russian planners needed to design a strategy, that would include a lot of manoeuvres, pinning and deceptions. Only this way, Russia could handle such a far larger enemy force. At the end we saw that it still was not enough, but I will come to this point later.
Now let’s take a look at several events to work out the applied strategies.
The Ukrainians announced early on, that they would start an offensive on Kherson and eventually on Crimea. Obviously, it is rather strange if someone announces its military strategy in advance. But it looks like, the Russians had intelligence, that it must be truth and prepared accordingly. A large Russian formation was deployed west of the Dnieper. Not only a large force, but a very elite one as well. Many paratrooper units were deployed here, which are not designed for such long-term defensive operations. It is a sign, of being overstretched.
As far as I can see it, the forces, committed to the Kherson front were absolutely sufficient to hold the line. And they did. Eventually the Ukrainians actually started the announced large-scale offensive on Kherson in August. Every wave of Ukrainians was defeated. The situation caused, until its preliminary end in November 2022, several tens of thousands of casualties on the Ukrainian side.

I heard many sources and scenarios. And I concluded that the following scenario was the most probable one. It looks like that the NATO command planned to fix huge numbers of Russia’s troops, especially the most elite ones, in Kherson. While preparing secretly another large-scale offensive in Kharkov (Russian held territories of Kharkov) and use it as a key to apply maximum pressure on the Russian Donbass operations. Eventually, to trigger a collapse of the front in Donbass, coming from the North.
This could have worked indeed. Had Russia not mobilized (most soldiers, that left the army, after their contract expired in July/August 2022, were directly re-mobilized and recommitted on their positions without additional training. They were already experienced. So, the northern Donbass front could have been directly stabilized.
The NATO plan was thwarted. Now the next approach was, to cut off the most experienced Russian troops on the West Bank of the Dnieper. And defeat them or take them prisoner. It would be the last big opportunity to win the war. Why, win the war? We need to remember, as I pointed out in the analysis of Phase 1 and 2, if a party achieves the objectives, that are set by the political leadership, it has won. It doesn’t matter how many casualties etc. were taken. Well, I pointed out in these articles, that Ukraine’s goals are the Western/NATO goals and these are simple… We can break them down to: “Collapse Russia as a state and remove President Putin”.
If we think about it, it becomes clear that if 40.000 Russian troops, many of them elite ones, would be trapped at the West Bank of the Dnieper, they couldn’t be saved. They would be either annihilated or taken prisoners. What means “being trapped” on the West Bank? Well, after the mobilization was announced, it was pretty clear, to the West, that the former plans were void. They had one last chance, triggering a collapse in Russia. Cutting off the Russian grouping on the West Bank of the Dnieper. By destroying the dam at the Kakhovka reservoir.
Ukraine accumulated some 60,000 troops, or more, for such an operation. If the dam was destroyed, Russian logistics would collapse immediately. Without logistics Russia couldn’t held the West Bank. Especially not against such a large grouping.
Whether this plan had any chance to succeed or not, I don’t know. What I know is, that the newly appointed commander of the SMO, General Surovikin, decided, that it’s not worth the risk and decided to withdraw all troops on the left side of the Dnieper.
This decision has two implications:
The Russian troops are save.
The last chance of NATO to win the war was thwarted. Considering the fact, that soon, most likely in December, another 220,000 Russian mobilized troops will arrive on the battlefield or in the rear, there is no theoretical chance or possibility left, that would conclude into a Ukrainian victory. Essentially, by withdrawing from Kherson city, Russia killed all hopes of the West, to achieve any kind of victory or negotiation potential (several thousand Russian POW’s). It is over. Only the killing will continue now, until the Ukrainians collapse.

The main front, though, is neither Kharkov nor Kherson. It is indeed the Donbass. Since it is the strategic goal of Russia, to free it. Most troops and equipment are concentrated in Donbass and is conducting, from the beginning offensive operations along the whole line of contact.
You might ask why there is no progress? I will come later to this, and I explained it already in the analysis of Phase 2, but it is very favourable for Russia to fight exactly at this position. Let the Ukrainians transport all their troops, supplies, equipment across the whole Ukraine and the same way back for repairs. Fight in a hostile environment. The Donbass population is clearly most pro-Russian off all regions in Ukraine. Most likely most civilians are already gone anyway. Which means, Russia can simply let the Ukrainians come and kill them over and over again. This is exactly what is happening.

The Ukrainians are rotating frequently totally reduced formations (brigades and battalions) out and replenish them with newly formed and mobilized ones. Some call it meatgrinder.
Moreover, Russia has total air dominance in Donbass and very short supply lines to Russia. It is the perfect spot now, to keep fighting there. The only reason, why it is still working, is, that the Ukrainians mustn’t give up one inch of its territory, because otherwise all the support of the Western citizens would immediately collapse, if they would see the truth, that their support and own suffering (Europe deindustrializing and deenergizing) is in vain. Perfect conditions for Russia to destroy the whole Ukrainian army at favourable places under its dictated conditions.

Mobilisation
I mentioned it in several articles. NATO knows exactly that their only possibility to win the war is, to deliver such a defeat in a single battle to Russia, that it would cause mass protests in Russia. And eventually a coup against Putin. Hence, taking prisoner of 40,000 troops or similar events (I know, exaggerated, but only to highlight the strategy). This is only possible, as long as Ukraine is able to exploit the biggest Russian weakness. The finite and low number of Russian troops in Ukraine. I described above, Ukrainian approaches to exploit this fact. Even though the probability is low, that such a disaster takes place, the probability is still too high. Don’t get me wrong. Russia would be able to conclude the SMO even without mobilisation. But with a far greater effort of every single solider and with the risk, that whole Russian formations got feinted into captivity. Or as President Putin said, there are not enough troops available to keep such a large frontline proper manned and equipped.
Well, to fight off the Ukrainian army safely is one reason for mobilisation. Later in this article we will see that Russia will be forced, to take step by step, as the Ukrainian army keeps collapsing, the whole of the territory of Ukraine. In the first two Phases such a necessity wasn’t mandatorily necessary. In Phase 3 it is necessary. I’ll describe it later in detail. Nevertheless, Russia will need many troops available while it keeps advancing into central and western Ukraine. For keeping the rear secure and maintaining order. As well as maintaining logistics and infrastructure works and taking care of huge camps off POW’s. This will be needed when the collapse begins. This is the third reasons for mobilising.
This was the second reason. The third reason is a little unpleasant. Depending on what strategy General Surovikin (I will discuss this in the strategic planning chapter) has chosen, Russia will need far more soldiers or not. If General Surovikin decided to execute head-on deep penetration operations in a front section, that is well defended (slightly unlikely), then Russia logically sustain huge losses. Not because it has a bad army, but because that’s how warfare works. You can easily calculate losses in such a scenario. This is which every general staff does, when planning such operations. And in turn in would mean, that these calculations would be passed in advance directly to Moscow to the recruitment offices and the second mobilisation wave would be activated before the offensive starts. Why? Because the estimated losses would occur and the reserves would need to be built simultaneously to replenish the losses and fill up in real time the depleted frontline formations. These mobilisations would continue until the war is concluded. Second wave, third wave etc. etc. etc. Essentially what is going on in Ukraine currently.
I personally consider reason three as very unlikely, that’s why I won’t argument further on this. What I want to do, is, to say that reason one and two combined will materialise. Russia will need to cover a large frontline with enough soldiers. And Russia will advance as soon as the last material and human reserves of the Ukrainians are depleted with a high velocity in Western direction.

On its way Russia will need to let soldiers behind to maintain everything mentioned above. So, I assume, that we could see another 2-3 mobilisation waves. Roughly for every 400 miles of territory another mobilisation wave.
What is possible as well is a total collapse or total surrender. In this case it is possible, that Ukraine could be “handed over” into a Russian military administration. No more hostilities and mobilisations would be needed. Since we all assume, that the West will avoid this scenario, and fight literally to the last Ukrainian, I don’t give this, very desirable scenario, a high probability. Even though I assume, that this is and always will be, President Putin’s favourite outcome, to stop the bloodshed between brothers.


Annexation
With this chapter I want to lay another groundwork for the “strategic planning” chapter. So, let’s discuss the annexations.
I don’t want to discuss the process of the annexation itself, but only its implications. Nevertheless, I want to point out that the following regions were annexed in September 2022:
Lugansk (Donbass)
Donetsk (Donbass)
Zaporizhzhia
Kherson
Well… 😊
In fact, this decision sealed the fate of Ukraine, the war and the world. What do I mean?
Well… Russia has a passage in its constitution, that requires Russia to defend, and in case of enemy occupation, to recapture every inch of its territory. Now we have three Russian federal subjects, that are occupied by a foreign power. Hence, President Putin is obliged by the constitution, to do whatever is in Russia’s power, to recapture these territories.
Here the problems begin. Russia has almost unlimited power. With nuclear weapons. This is the next problem. The Russian nuclear doctrine foresees the usage of nuclear weapons if it loses militarily on its territory or if the statehood is in danger.
First, Russia would need to try to recapture these territories conventionally. For this task it can mobilize 25 million troops. If these troops all fail, or earlier, if the military command sees no other chance, to fulfill its constitutional obligation, a nuclear attack would be mandatorily carried out, to eventually win the war.
I want to sum it up.
Russia’s territories are occupied.
The constitution requires President Putin to recapture every inch.
If he can’t win conventionally, then Russian military doctrine applies, which says, if the Russian statehood is in danger or a military defeat in inevitable, then nuclear weapons must be used.
President Putin said in an interview, a few years ago, what do we need a world for, if Russia is no longer part of it?
If Russia can’t recapture these territories, we all are going to die.
This sequence is inevitable. Everyone who cheers, that Russia don’t recapture these territories or loses the war, in the same time cheers for die by a nuclear strike. Yes, Russia will vanish, but the rest of the world with her.
This is the small, little problem, that occurred due to these annexations for the West. This problem is unsolvable. The West knows this, the Western leaders don’t want to die, hence, the West is no longer fighting for a military victory. The West is instead, as pointed out several times, fighting to achieve a decisive strike, that would cause a collapse of Russia and President Putin. The rationale would be here, that there wouldn’t be any nuclear strikes during the process of collapse and dismembering.
Well, could be. But it is an insane dangerous and crazy game. The good news is, this will never happen anyways, since Russia is winning big time, and such considerations are only theoretically.
Why Donbass and the other two regions? Donbass is the “casus belli” of course. And the other two regions are the land bridge to Crimea. Will this be enough? Ok let’s continue with the following considerations. Let’s assume that Russia would proceed incrementally. Which means, it would first free the Donbass and then the other two regions. Without touching any other region, such as Kharkov etc.

What would happen, provided that the Ukrainian army hadn’t collapsed at this point? Of course, these regions would be shelled and attacked regularly.
Russia is required by constitution to protect its territories. Which means, that it would now expand the security zones around its territories. And to make it permanent safe, Russia would annex these buffer zones as well. Now the same game begins again. Another iteration of the constitution/doctrine game. Russia will be required to fully free these territories. They will be shelled again, and there will be a new buffer zone. This game would go all the way up to Lvov. (Well, not exactly up to Lvov, but this will be discussed later in the chapter “Further thoughts”).
That is what Russia is by its constitution and doctrine required to. It could happen this way, but I have another picture in my mind, what eventually could happen. Eventually, it surely will be a combination of both, what I pointed out here, and what you will read in “Strategic planning”.
Just one last bit. I don’t think that Russia wants to annex the whole of Ukraine. The Western parts would do more harm than good to Russia. But who knows?

Logistics
Logistics is the most important factor, to consider in war. Especially in mobile war, as opposed to trench warfare. I will give some examples, what needs to be considered in a war from a logistical point of view:
Delivering fuel to the troops at the frontline
Delivering food and water to the troops at the frontline
Delivering spare parts to the troops at the frontline
Delivering mails to the troops at the frontline
Delivering lubricants to the troops at the frontline
Delivering ammunition to the troops at the frontline
Delivering equipment to the troops at the frontline
Delivering reinforcements to the troops at the frontline
Bringing back/collect empty shells to Russia or the next base from the troops on the frontline
Bringing back/collect broken or destroyed equipment to Russia or the next base from the troops on the frontline
Bringing back/collect mails to Russia or the next base from the troops on the frontline
Bringing back/collect dirty clothes to Russia or the next base from the troops on the frontline
Bringing back/collect waste to Russia or the next base from the troops on the frontline
I’m sure I forgot plenty of tasks for the logistics. But it is a good impression, to see, what amounts of goods needs to be transported every day in BOTH directions. For this to be possible there are several approaches. One can transport everything in a circular system by trucks. But for such large distances, that are in question here, it is simply impossible. One would need tens of thousands of trucks.
Indeed, the Russians are using, and always have used, the railways mainly, for logistics. Hereby, we need to distinguish between supplying mobile troops and troops fighting in positional warfare.
Mobile troops are tank or motorized riffle formations that are for example conducting deep penetration operations. It is by far more complicated, to keep up with their advances, they to supply a trench in Donbass, that is not moving for weeks or months.
Positional warfare logistics:
Bringing in supplies from Russia by train to the next logistics stations next to the frontline.
Build up supply hubs that are well defended from shelling, that are located far and near enough from the frontline, to assure a rational supplying of the troops, but don’t put it into immediate danger of being hit by stray shells.
Having smaller frontline ammunition and shell stocks.
Establishing a truck transport between the train stations, supply hubs and frontline stocks.
Establishing pipeline systems from the train stations to the supply hubs to save truck capacity.
Mobile warfare logistics:
Essentially the same, but far more stretched and thus, far more trucks in usage. Pipelines are also very difficult, up to impossible to be laid on huge distances. In fact, the advancing troops are depended on supply convoys with supply trucks and tankers. Which are traditional the most valued targets for the enemy.

If the logistics for advancing troops don’t work, then there is no offensive. The supply convoys are by far not as guarded as a frontline tank division assault detachment. And here is the clue. It is NATO’s strategy, to fight the Soviets and now the Russians, to target its logistics as much as possible. This is exactly what we saw in Phase 1.
Why did I write this chapter? First, I want to highlight what is needed for large scale offensive operations. What do we need to look for, if we want to see indications for deep penetration offensives? Well. We need to look out for thousands of trucks and tankers. Maybe even tens of thousands. I assume, that such transports would be concealed. But for now, I didn’t see on open sources any indications, that such capacities were mobilized and brought into Belarus or next to Donbass. As I said, it can be due to concealment, so it doesn’t mean anything.
Second, what is far more important, I want to highlight the challenges, that the Ukrainians have, to supply their troops across the whole country. Most of the supplies are no longer produced or stored in Ukraine. It will need to be brought in, from Poland. And Russia is increasing the demand for supplies daily for Ukraine and at the same time is decreasing Ukraine’s capacities for transport also daily. An army without supply can’t fight and need eventually either to capitulate or to be destroyed. In one word. Collapse. This is the first hint, that I wanted to work out with this chapter, for the strategic planning chapter, later in this article.

New SMO commander
I pointed already some thoughts out, about General Surovikin. That’s why I don’t plan to write it in double. 
Generally speaking, I want to point out that it is absolutely essential to have one single appointed commander for the operation. Most likely the command structure most follow the “Phases” as well. Since Phase 1 and 2 didn’t conclude the war with the small troops contingent, now Moscow decided, to change the approach and go to an operation, that looks more like a regular war. (Which it is still NOT). Such an operation needs a single commander. Phase 3 is essentially completely a General Surovikin strategy and execution.
Whether it is good and successful I can’t say yet. We will see when Phase 3 is concluded. Generally, I have a good feeling. Nevertheless, I will go into his strategic planning in detail in the next chapter.

Strategic planning
As pointed out in my quoted article above, I’m sure, that General Surovikin was required to work out an overall strategy, for concluding the war sometimes in June or July 2022. Not only he, but maybe some other generals as well. His strategy was obviously accepted and he was appointed as the overall commander of the SMO.

In other words, this means, that there IS now an overall strategy for Ukraine, executed by one single commander. That’s in short, what I wrote in my other article about General Surovikin. First, I neither have it nor do I pretend to know what this strategy could be.
Since this article is describing an ongoing Phase of the war, I will need to give my predictions here. And that’s what I’m going to do. Keep in mind that these are ASSUMPTIONS.
General Surovikin seems to have started his command, by reshaping the battlefield. He brings all the figures in place, so that they can execute the final plan. Clearly, the withdrawal from Kherson is such an indicator.
To be able to execute his plan, General Surovikin requested, as already said, in June or July the mobilisation of XYZ number of troops. This was accepted and communicated when it fitted the best. Will it be the only mobilisation wave? Will there be more? I discussed that in the corresponding chapter.
Currently, some 70,000 mobilised troops with fresh fighting experience, were committed to frontline units to stabilize the undermanned frontlines.